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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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8 Oct, 9 tweets, 3 min read
Test Trace and Isolate isn't working.

Specifically
- Testing isn't working
- Tracing isn't working
- Isolating isn't working
SAGE minutes of 1 May (Meeting 32) stated that 'at least 80% of contacts of an index case would need to be identified for a system to be effective'

gov.uk/government/pub…
Here's a chart of the progression of people through the TTI system
nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/chart…

Also follow @ADMBriggs for excellent analysis of the TTI statistics

You can see we are nowhere near where we need to be
The Academy of Medical Sciences (the learned body for medicine - think of it as the Royal Society for medics) published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' on 14 July setting out that a Test Trace and Isolate ('TTI') system.

Particularly this
And this


"estimated total number of hospital deaths (excl. care homes) between September 2020 and June 2021 of 119,900 ... over double the number occurring during the first wave in spring 2020"
Here I am on @LBC @NickFerrariLBC today discussing this.

So, the question to Government remains:

What is the Government's Reasonable Worst Case Scenario (RWCS) estimate for deaths?

And if the Government can't answer that question, why not?
Here is some discussion of the paper that was mentioned at the end of the interview

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
9 Oct
Here is my latest heatmap showing how cases are travelling through the age groups.

It is very concerning. Image
"The first thing to note is the more-than-doubling in the rate of Covid cases in 10-19 year olds. Many of these will be university students, but it's not clear how many of these are schoolchildren.
“Studies in Spain, France, and the US have all shown that although the second wave may start in young people, it will inevitably move to older people.

“The remarkable thing about this disease is that the death rate increases massively with age.
Read 12 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
9 Oct
Commentary on the Slide Pack shown to MPs

'COVID-19 TaskForce: Data briefing 8 October 2020'

Here it is:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

h/t @robpowellnews and @Smyth_Chris
Slide 1
Comment: The ONS survey does not include students in halls of residence so will underestimate due to outbreaks in halls of residence

But, yes, everything points to the epidemic not being under control

See: Image
Slide 2

Shows cases above 50 per 100,000. This is good. However, note several colour shades above this - not just the dark purple (and why no scale?) Image
Read 32 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
9 Oct
Here endeth the National COVID-19 surveillance reports series.

gov.uk/government/pub… Image
These have been replaced with the National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports. So, that's good.

And I'll be providing weekly updates on these.

But - a few things.
The new reports don't show hospitalizations by NHS trust. These were useful for showing e.g. the 5th highest hopsital trust with admissions per 100,000 population was in London, not the north of England
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
8 Oct
Public Health England have published their latest (week 41) COVID surveillance report. However, this is in a new format called the 'influenza and COVID-19 surveillance report'. It is not clear whether a separate COVID report will be published

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This report does not appear to contain a watchlist of local authorities. Previous weeks have contained a watchlist of local authorities published jointly by PHE / Joint Biosecurity Centre / NHS Test and Trace.

See this for last week's
This is the chart for positivity. Increasing. Change of methodology this week - a good thing as a more conventional calculation.

'Positivity is calculated as the number of individuals testing positive during the week divided by the number of individuals tested during the week.' Image
Read 19 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
6 Oct
Let's not lose sight of what's happening.

We may not be able to rely on case data. But here's the latest PHE map of cases. Not now restricted to the north east and the north west - look at London

So if we can't rely on cases, we have to use other metrics. Image
Here is a graph of admissions to hospital in England.

478 people were admitted today. And the trend is upwards. Image
What happens if you deteriorate is that you end up in ICU or a High Dependency Unit.

So what's happening there? These are increasing too. Image
Read 6 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
6 Oct
Positivity calculations (please ignore this everyone, trying to work something out)

@theosanderson @ADMBriggs @dan_grey (please add in anyone interested)
We are trying to reconcile the data from this chart
(source: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… ) Image
Let's look at week 36, as that's what @theosanderson used in his FOI request
whatdotheyknow.com/request/689515…
Read 8 tweets

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