If we assume that the "Unaffiliated" voters break 50-50 Trump/Biden, and we counted the ballots today, we would expect that Biden would be ahead of Trump in the VBM ballots ---
3/ at this point by roughly 64% to 36%. Bad news? Right? Not so fast.
According to TargetSmart's "party roll-up score," which predicts how individual voters will likely vote, Biden is leading Trump 55.3% to 38.1%, with a little over 10% of voters being undetermined. ---
4/ In other words, TargetSmart predicts that if we counted all of the returned Florida VBM ballots today, Biden's lead would be noticeably less than the registration numbers would suggest. Bottom line: The massive Florida VBM returns, especially among "unaffiliated" voters, ---
5/ are disproportionately white, older, and more conservative. FYI, TargetSmart is a DEMOCRAT firm, and they run voter files in every state through multiple data banks. For example, a woman registered as a Republican but who lives in Karen-ville, ---
6/ donates to Planned Parenthood, etc. is "modeled" a Democrat voter, whereas a 70 year old male from rural Florida who is an NRA member is "modeled" a Republican.
TargetSmart also shows VBM turnout share of the electorate among 18-39 year olds to be a whopping (sarcasm) 11%! --
7/ Black voter share of the current VBM electorate is 11%, also. Note, Obama won Florida when black voters made up 14% of the Florida electorate. And the black voter number is even worse when you consider that ----
8/ many Republican-leaning counties sent out VBM a week later than Broward, Palm Beach, and other counties with large black populations. When the Republican counties begin reporting more VBM numbers, the black share of the VBM universe may drop to ---
9/ 10% of the VBM electorate or lower. And now you know why the Democrats and their media allies are pushing the "Trump's a white supremacist" angle and having Michelle Obama come out with that silly video.
-----
10/ Question: What would you prefer, Biden leading Trump 55.3% to 38.1% or Trump leading Biden 55.3% to 38.1%?
As to your statement that independents are “obviously leaning towards Trump,” when one feels that they must assert that something is “obvious” ---
11/ I find that their statement is untenable.
________________________________________________________
Answer by "bort": I’m assuming that you are asking good-faith questions and are not a troll. So I will answer. Democrats/DNC have spent a ton of money ---
12/ on getting their voters to vote by mail (VBM). Trump has been trashing VBM and has encouraged his voters to vote in-person. Additionally, the Dem. base is far more scared of the China Virus than the Rep. base and, thus, have shifted their voting method from in-person to VBM.
13/ That the Democrats have requested and returned far more VBM ballots than Rs is not shocking. So there is a pool of over 1 million voters who have voted. Based on demographic information, voting history, location, age, gender, etc., the DEMOCRAT firm TargetSmart ---
14/ predicts that these voters are more pro-Trump than the registration breakdown. This is obviously because the VBM ballots are predominantly older, white voters, some of whom cross-party lines (the older “Southern Democrats.” ---
15/ The Independents in this pile are obviously more likely to be R leaning Independents than Democrat leaning. I use the word “obviously” based on Target Smart’s data. If a Democrat firm is modeling the VBM returned ballots in Florida to be more pro-Republican
16/ than the registration breakdown would suggest, this obviously means that the Is who have cast their ballots are lean Republican.
That Biden is ahead in early voting means little. Republicans have stated a preference in polls to overwhelmingly vote IN-PERSON. ----
17 End/ Florida will be close, but these numbers are good for Trump.
End of "bort"'s comments.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Earlier today, @Redistrict suggested Sumter County (The Villages) would be a good place to monitor on the election night. I agree and I looked into the county level data to assess the VBM situaion. ----
2/ Doing so eliminates the artifact due to discrepancy of different counties mailing out ballots at different times.
I then looked up the VBM data from the primary election this year. What I found was fascinating. Only 24% of Rs have returned VBM ballots ----
3/ while 40% of Dems have done so. Compare that to 75% of Rs retuned VBM ballots during the primary vs 62% for Dems. This tells us that Rs are not just receiving the VBM ballots late (like in some counties). ----
Early voting surges...but not among black voters.
October 10, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/10/2020, 6:59:05 AM by bort
Below is a list of states that have accumulated ----
2/ substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, ----
3/ these are percentages that were cast by black voters in each state:
1/ This new info indicates a new milestone. What she most likely had was the tumor overgrowth around the existing biliary stent, causing it to be obstructed. ---
2/ What the doctors at Sloan Kettering did was probably what is called stent-in-stent procedure: placing of a second stent with a narrower diameter inside the old one. What does this mean?
3/ This second stent will again be obstructed by yet more tumor growth over a much shorter time interval than the old one. When that happens, doctors will be out of good options. My prediction: she won't be back on the #SCOTUS for the fall reopening.
1/ As I have been speculating based on the publicly available info, RBG turns out to have been on chemo to treat her advanced pancreatic ca. It's got to the point where she can't hide it anymore. So she announced her treatment info today..
2/ We have quite a few nuggets of info found in her announcement. A) She has liver mets, initially discovered in Feb 2020. That almost certainly confirms my year-old suspicion that she's had stage 4 adenocarcinoma of the pancreas...
3/ She even had malignant lung nodules back in 2018. We also know that her cancer is locally advanced encroaching on her common duct, needing a stent. We can rule out the more curable malignant pancreatic cell type (neuroendocrine tumor) because if she had that, ....
1/ RBG just got admitted to JHU this am. Last year, I predicted that she would probably have to leave USSC by the end of this summer. That time is drawing near and she has so far defied all but most optimstic expectations
2/ given her dire diagnosis of locally advanced and possibly metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The following is what we know from the limited info available publicly and I'd try to make a best guess on her prognosis...
3/ In 2009, she had cancer in distal part of her pancreas that got resected and cured.
In August 2019, they found another cancer in the remaining portion of her pancreas (head/proximal part) for which she received stereotactic radio-ablation ONLY,
1/ I present the following only because you are curious and this is just my speculation albeit an educated guess. The important facts that we know regarding RBG's pancreatic cancer are: In 2009, she had cancer in distal part of her pancreas that got resected and cured.
2/ In August, they found another cancer in the remaining portion of her pancreas (head/proximal part) for which she received stereotactic radio-ablation ONLY without chemo or surgery, and also she got a biliary stent.
3/ Based on this limited info, it can be deduced that 1) she has at a minimum unresectable or Locally Advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC), 2) she may or may not have distant metastases (in Jan 2019, they found 2 small malignant lung nodules