au ng Profile picture
10 Oct, 13 tweets, 3 min read
1/ Another great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the #VoteByMail and #EarlyVoting

Early voting surges...but not among black voters.
October 10, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/10/2020, 6:59:05 AM by bort

Below is a list of states that have accumulated ----
2/ substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, ----
3/ these are percentages that were cast by black voters in each state:

Florida: 11% (Obama 2012: 14% of electorate)

Indiana: 5% (state AA population: 11%)

Maryland: 22% (state AA population: 33%)

Michigan: 8% (state AA population: 15%)

Neb(CD-2):4% (CD AA population: 10%)

-
4/ North Carolina: 16% (Obama 1 pt. win in 2008: 23%)

Virginia.: 13% (typically comprise 20% of electorate)

Yes, it is still early to make firm conclusions. But keep in mind that the Democratic Party embarked on a massive "vote early" campaign to encourage voters, ----
5/ especially black voters, to vote early by mail. More importantly, in states like NC and FL, which have large black populations and huge numbers of VBM, the pool of voters that have returned/cast ballots is not only "light" on black votes, it is "light" on Republican votes---
6/ In other words, when registered Republicans (95% white) begin catching up to Democrats in early voting, the black share of the early vote electorate will DROP even further than these already low numbers.
Folks, there are 2 things going on here that bode well for ----
7/ Trump and Republicans:

1) This is 1998 all over again, just in reverse. In 1998, Republicans were expected to win seats in Congress following Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection. However, Republicans spent 100% of their time obsessing on Clinton's Lewinsky affair and impeachment.
8/ We lost seats and Newt resigned as Speaker. We lost because we pissed off Democrats by our non-stop Clinton attacks, and we offered our own voters NOTHING to vote for. Democrats are doing the same thing: their attacks on Trump do nothing but fire up the Republican base,---
9/ and they have offered NOTHING of substance to blacks and other voters as a whole.

2) The "China Virus Drop-Off," as I predict, will result in a substantial net drop off of Democrat base voters due to fear of going to polling places. White voters drive to the polls to vote.--
10/ When is the last time you took a bus to go vote? Suburban black voters drive to the polls. However, a very large share of black voters vote because of "voter drives." Church buses, Democrat vans, Souls to the Polls, black college voter drives, etc. ---
11/ These "voter drive" techniques have been neutered by China Virus. Democrats fear the China Virus--the media tells them to fear it, their elected leaders tell them to fear it, etc. Let's see: Black voters are not excited about Biden, black men are "ok" with Trump, ----
12 End/ and many in the community think they might die by getting into crowded spaces like polling places, buses, and vans. This is why a state like Virginia is "in play."

End of "bort"'s comments.
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More from @athein1

11 Oct
#FL #VoteByMail In-Depth Case Study: Sumter County

Earlier today, @Redistrict suggested Sumter County (The Villages) would be a good place to monitor on the election night. I agree and I looked into the county level data to assess the VBM situaion. ---- Image
2/ Doing so eliminates the artifact due to discrepancy of different counties mailing out ballots at different times.

I then looked up the VBM data from the primary election this year. What I found was fascinating. Only 24% of Rs have returned VBM ballots ----
3/ while 40% of Dems have done so. Compare that to 75% of Rs retuned VBM ballots during the primary vs 62% for Dems. This tells us that Rs are not just receiving the VBM ballots late (like in some counties). ----
Read 5 tweets
10 Oct
Great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the situation in #FL #VoteByMail

Florida early voting update (Good news)
Target Smart & @electproject ^ | October 9, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/9/2020, 8:58:43 AM by bort
2/ Returned vote by mail (VBM) ballots:

707K--Democrats/396K--Republicans/266K--Unaffiliated

If we assume that the "Unaffiliated" voters break 50-50 Trump/Biden, and we counted the ballots today, we would expect that Biden would be ahead of Trump in the VBM ballots ---
3/ at this point by roughly 64% to 36%. Bad news? Right? Not so fast.

According to TargetSmart's "party roll-up score," which predicts how individual voters will likely vote, Biden is leading Trump 55.3% to 38.1%, with a little over 10% of voters being undetermined. ---
Read 17 tweets
30 Jul
#RBG #RuthBaderGinsburg Update

1/ This new info indicates a new milestone. What she most likely had was the tumor overgrowth around the existing biliary stent, causing it to be obstructed. ---
2/ What the doctors at Sloan Kettering did was probably what is called stent-in-stent procedure: placing of a second stent with a narrower diameter inside the old one. What does this mean?
3/ This second stent will again be obstructed by yet more tumor growth over a much shorter time interval than the old one. When that happens, doctors will be out of good options. My prediction: she won't be back on the #SCOTUS for the fall reopening.
Read 4 tweets
17 Jul
RBG update #RBG #RuthBaderGinsburg

1/ As I have been speculating based on the publicly available info, RBG turns out to have been on chemo to treat her advanced pancreatic ca. It's got to the point where she can't hide it anymore. So she announced her treatment info today..
2/ We have quite a few nuggets of info found in her announcement. A) She has liver mets, initially discovered in Feb 2020. That almost certainly confirms my year-old suspicion that she's had stage 4 adenocarcinoma of the pancreas...
3/ She even had malignant lung nodules back in 2018. We also know that her cancer is locally advanced encroaching on her common duct, needing a stent. We can rule out the more curable malignant pancreatic cell type (neuroendocrine tumor) because if she had that, ....
Read 8 tweets
15 Jul
RBG update

1/ RBG just got admitted to JHU this am. Last year, I predicted that she would probably have to leave USSC by the end of this summer. That time is drawing near and she has so far defied all but most optimstic expectations

supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/pre…
2/ given her dire diagnosis of locally advanced and possibly metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The following is what we know from the limited info available publicly and I'd try to make a best guess on her prognosis...
3/ In 2009, she had cancer in distal part of her pancreas that got resected and cured.
In August 2019, they found another cancer in the remaining portion of her pancreas (head/proximal part) for which she received stereotactic radio-ablation ONLY,
Read 10 tweets
27 Nov 19
1/ I present the following only because you are curious and this is just my speculation albeit an educated guess. The important facts that we know regarding RBG's pancreatic cancer are: In 2009, she had cancer in distal part of her pancreas that got resected and cured.
2/ In August, they found another cancer in the remaining portion of her pancreas (head/proximal part) for which she received stereotactic radio-ablation ONLY without chemo or surgery, and also she got a biliary stent.
3/ Based on this limited info, it can be deduced that 1) she has at a minimum unresectable or Locally Advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC), 2) she may or may not have distant metastases (in Jan 2019, they found 2 small malignant lung nodules
Read 10 tweets

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