Thread by @athein1

1/ Another great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the #VoteByMail and #EarlyVoting

Early voting surges...but not among black voters.
October 10, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/10/2020, 6:59:05 AM by bort

Below is a list of states that have accumulated ----

2/ substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, ----

3/ these are percentages that were cast by black voters in each state:

Florida: 11% (Obama 2012: 14% of electorate)

Indiana: 5% (state AA population: 11%)

Maryland: 22% (state AA population: 33%)

Michigan: 8% (state AA population: 15%)

Neb(CD-2):4% (CD AA population: 10%)

-

4/ North Carolina: 16% (Obama 1 pt. win in 2008: 23%)

Virginia.: 13% (typically comprise 20% of electorate)

Yes, it is still early to make firm conclusions. But keep in mind that the Democratic Party embarked on a massive "vote early" campaign to encourage voters, ----

5/ especially black voters, to vote early by mail. More importantly, in states like NC and FL, which have large black populations and huge numbers of VBM, the pool of voters that have returned/cast ballots is not only "light" on black votes, it is "light" on Republican votes---

6/ In other words, when registered Republicans (95% white) begin catching up to Democrats in early voting, the black share of the early vote electorate will DROP even further than these already low numbers.
Folks, there are 2 things going on here that bode well for ----

7/ Trump and Republicans:

1) This is 1998 all over again, just in reverse. In 1998, Republicans were expected to win seats in Congress following Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection. However, Republicans spent 100% of their time obsessing on Clinton's Lewinsky affair and impeachment.

8/ We lost seats and Newt resigned as Speaker. We lost because we pissed off Democrats by our non-stop Clinton attacks, and we offered our own voters NOTHING to vote for. Democrats are doing the same thing: their attacks on Trump do nothing but fire up the Republican base,---

9/ and they have offered NOTHING of substance to blacks and other voters as a whole.

2) The "China Virus Drop-Off," as I predict, will result in a substantial net drop off of Democrat base voters due to fear of going to polling places. White voters drive to the polls to vote.--

10/ When is the last time you took a bus to go vote? Suburban black voters drive to the polls. However, a very large share of black voters vote because of "voter drives." Church buses, Democrat vans, Souls to the Polls, black college voter drives, etc. ---

11/ These "voter drive" techniques have been neutered by China Virus. Democrats fear the China Virus--the media tells them to fear it, their elected leaders tell them to fear it, etc. Let's see: Black voters are not excited about Biden, black men are "ok" with Trump, ----

12 End/ and many in the community think they might die by getting into crowded spaces like polling places, buses, and vans. This is why a state like Virginia is "in play."

End of "bort"'s comments.

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