Even countries most exposed to #NoDealBrexit dangers are saying EU shouldn't back down on #Brexit.

Belgium is the 2nd most exposed, but PM @AlexanderDeCroo says in late-night presser that "it would be crazy not to have a deal but it would be even more crazy to have a bad deal".
De Croo says this resolve is hardening "more and more" on EU side.

"Granting access of the UK to the European market, if you want to that, then we need assurances on the way the UK is going to play the game".
Because trust is low (especially after UK made plans to renege on withdrawal treaty), a sanctions mechanism need to be in place if UK violates FTA.

The UK could “possibly have some predatory behaviour which could be very negative for the European economy"
De Croo says that EU shouldn't let time pressure force it into making a bad deal.

Though short-term effects of #NoDealBrexit would be quite bad for the Belgian economy, the long-term effects of agreeing a bad deal would be worse because it would undermine the whole EU market.
If @BorisJohnson's deadline threat strategy was meant to put time pressure on the EU to force it into backing down on its #Brexit position, that strategy appears to have failed at this #EUCO.

So today we await the British prime minister's next moves.
We're still waiting for a decision from @BorisJohnson after an #EUCO summit that did not go his way.

But comments from @DominicRaab on UK TV this morning suggest Johnson will extend talks: "We are close...with goodwill on both sides we can get there"

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More from @DaveKeating

15 Oct
My take: no leader wants to be the first one to say publicly that #Brexit talks have failed.

Neither side wants to be blamed for the no-deal chaos coming in 75 days.

And so, most likely, @BorisJohnson will decide tomorrow to blow through his deadline and continue talks.
But the talks will be just a charade.

There will be a long gap between when leaders decide for themselves no-deal is inevitable, and when they say it to the public.

For as long as they're afraid to say it out loud, businesses aren't getting the message to prepare for no deal.
1/3 of UK businesses apparently think that there will be an extension of the #Brexit transition period - something legally impossible at this point.

It's clear governments on both sides of the channel aren't communicating the facts to business.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
There is no prospect that leaders at today's #EUCO will somehow agree a post-#Brexit FTA in time for @BorisJohnson's 15 October deadline

But now the UK side is walking back his threat, saying tomorrow he will merely assess whether there has been enough progress to continue talks
But the elephant in the room is #CoronaVirus.

It's looking like this may be the last in-person #EUCO this year. If #Brexit talks do continue, they will likely have to be virtual.

Hard to see how a deal can be reached in these circumstances.
President @EmmanuelMacron entering #EUCO: "It is possible that there will be no [#Brexit FTA] agreement…we are prepared for it.”

“Our fishermen should not be the ones being sacrificed because of Brexit...we have not chosen Brexit, it is the British peoples' choice."
Read 13 tweets
14 Oct
As we get to the home stretch of #Brexit negotiations, the UK side is questioning whether the FTA deal on offer from the EU is really worth signing.

The complaint: EU isn't giving the same level of market access as other FTAs it's signed, for instance with Canada and Japan.
So what people will be keenly watching from the #EUCO tomorrow is whether EU27 prime ministers and presidents flesh out the meat on the bone in terms of what's actually on offer.

But EU says it's already spelled out what's on offer quite clearly.
The big question: Will Johnson stick to his 15 October deal-or-no-deal deadline?

Probably not, it appears. UK side now saying it will assess whether there's been sufficient progress to continue talks.

But practical reality is a deal needed now to be ratified in time for 31 Dec.
Read 4 tweets
13 Oct
This morning EU ministers formally adopted an EU-wide colour coding scheme for #COVID19 travel restrictions.

But this EU map has been out there for 2 weeks, and and member states still aren’t using it or coordinating.
Europe’s airlines say this agreement will do little to improve coordination.

They wanted the EU to create windows of certainty for travellers, replace quarantines with testing, allow travel between red zones, and forbid entry bans between EU countries. aci-europe.org/media-room/278…
German Europe minister Michael Roth, asked after today's ministerial why the EU didn't go further to give more certainty to passengers, notes that this is only an EU recommendation because "member states have the powers in this area".

"Notwithstanding that, we're doing our best" Image
Read 8 tweets
7 Sep

This the deal Johnson was celebrated for agreeing. The piece of paper he waived in the air as victory during the December snap election campaign.
To be clear:

The deal requiring a customs border between Northern Ireland and rest of the UK was not an "unforeseen consequence". It was a consequence foreseen by May, which is why she wouldn't agree to it

The cave-in on this by Johnson was what got him a deal where May didn't
Making Northern Ireland part of the EU's customs zone was the *raison d'etre* of Boris's deal, and the key difference from May's deal.

It was what necessitated an election to get rid of the government's reliance on the DUP, who could never support severing NI from GB.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jun
BREAKING: Now official, Americans remain banned from EU.

By majority vote, EU countries just agreed to allow only these citizens in starting tomorrow: 🇯🇵🇰🇷🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿🇷🇼🇷🇸🇲🇪🇬🇪🇺🇾🇹🇭🇲🇦🇩🇿🇹🇳

Borders in theory open between countries in EU single market (🇪🇺27+🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧)

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇧🇷 banned.
Official adoption will come later today but there's already a qualified majority for this list - nobody can veto.

It will be updated every two weeks. China may be added if it grants reciprocal access to EU citizens.
An important caveat - these are countries that individual EU member states *can* allow in, it doesn't mean they have to. It will be up to each government.

But the fact that this list took so long to agree suggests every country intends to follow it.
Read 9 tweets

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