Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NKpeace

Most recents (24)

Today, Ilham Aliyev openly criticised the behaviour of the #OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, especially #Russia & #France. Although he did not name Kremlin directly, he accused third country for supplying arms to #Armenia during last #KarabakhWar. ⬇️
The main criticism was on passive role of co-chairs for implementation of UN resolutions in past 27 years.
Criticism of AZ officials on #KarabakhConflict increased since the occupation of #Crimea in 2014 and separatism in Eastern #Ukraine. ⬇️
They demanded that #Armenia should be punished in the same way, citing sanctions on #Russia for violating Ukraine's territorial integrity. It is clear that the AZ side will insist at the next Geneva meeting withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories and ⬇️
Read 5 tweets
Below is my prediction for what would happen if #Azerbaijan achieves a complete military victory in #Nagornokarabakh. Tl;dr: there still won’t be #NKPeace (1 of 11)
2. #Azerbaijan will announce that the #Nagornokarabakh Oblast is no more. The idea of autonomy will be gone. Azerbaijan will invite Armenians back to live as Azerbaijani citizens. None will go back. (We’re assuming that the remaining 60k civilians will safely escape to #Armenia)
3. #Armenia will have a #refugeecrisis. 150k + 400k from the 1st war means 550k refugees. The new rhetoric in Armenia will be how #AzerbaijaniAggression took the homes of these 550k people. To Azeris reading this, just think of the rhetoric you’ve heard regarding your IDPs.
Read 11 tweets
1 Reports already of breakdown of last night's #Karabakh truce hours after it was agreed. Again a reminder of why a truce is desperately needed: the huge human cost of conflict. (If you don’t need reminding, please look at my Twitter feed over last three weeks.)
2 Take note of what OHCHR, ICRC, Amnesty, have said: Sustained Azerbaijani bombardment of NK itself and its Armenian population, many civilian casualties, destruction of civilian infrastructure, tens of thousands displaced, use of banned weapons (cluster munitions).
3 Many Armenian strikes on Azerbaijani town of Ganje, Terter, Barda, including places where IDPs from war of 1990s were living and were displaced again. Worst strike with many casualties, mass destruction, occurred yesterday in Ganje.
Read 10 tweets
Both-sides-ism isn't acceptable in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war. It's also not how you reach #NKPeace, a thread (1/24)
I understand many, especially the international media, are inclined to consider "both sides" and try not to fall into the pit of war support. Here's why this is the wrong, if not the worst, way to approach this war now. (2/24)
Both side-ism might have been a worthwhile lens for the first war where rising nationalist during the USSR regime collapse and the ethnically mixed population of the region made both countries do very questionable things. (3/24) Azerbaijani refugees from Khojali, 1992 (Photo: Ilgar Jafaro
Read 24 tweets
1. Armenia is pushing for the right of #RemedialSecession of #Karabakh Armenians and for international recognition, as the only mechanism in place for the prevention of massacre of the entire Armenian population of Karabakh.
2. The survival needs of people are at stake in #Karabakh Evidence of harsh brutality of #Azerbaijani military against unarmed civilians and prisoners of war has already been circulated across int-l media.
3. In the course of the last few decades there have been at least 3 cases when the right for national self-determination was recognized by the world: East Timor, Kosovo and South Sudan.
Read 9 tweets
░U░N░ ░S░e░c░u░r░i░t░y░ ░C░o░u░n░c░i░l░ ░R░e░s░o░l░u░t░i░o░n░s░ ░o░n░ ░N░a░g░o░r░n░o░ ░K░a░r░a░b░a░k░h░ ░E░x░p░l░a░i░n░e░d░ #NKpeace 🌐 Image
🏳 #Azerbaijan says UN Security Council resolutions of 1993 back up their claims over #Artsakh / #NagornoKarabakh and justify its use of military force. Here’s is what the international lawyers say in the following 7 bullets threaded below? 👇 Image
1️⃣ The UN Security Council adopted 4 resolutions on #NagornoKarabakh (no 822, 853, 874, 884) exercising its main function of maintaining peace and security. 👇 Image
Read 11 tweets
It's not hard for me to mesh my support for #Armenia in the #Nagornokarabakh conflict with being a western-raised and trained #Humanrights lawyer. The short answer is that I wish to stop #EthnicCleansing. The long answer is below. (1/14)
First, I reject that neutrality is the "proper" response. Neutrality is appropriate when one is ignorant. But choosing to remain in ignorance isn't praiseworthy. It is more intellectually honest to learn and draw a conclusion. (2/14)
This article shows how one can have a thoughtful "both sides" discussion instead of the thoughtless one we typically see from int'l media and orgs. anthropology.utk.edu/the-violence-o… (3/14)
Read 14 tweets
I support all calls for a ceasefire on #KarabakhWar now. But I observe some attempts to maintain the status quo in these calls. In fact, if the superpowers had paid attention to #Azerbaijan's calls to change the status quo in past 20 years, everything would have been different.⬇️
The area of N.Karabakh is about 4,400 sq km. Along with this area, #Armenia occupied surrounding 11000 sqkm territory. As a result, more than 600,000 Azerbaijanis became IDPs and lost their homes. ⬇️
If in the last 27 years there has not been enough pressure on the political leadership of #Armenia to solve these problems, the international community is also responsible for the current military operation in #Karabakh. ⬇️
Read 7 tweets
New thread. I'm quoted here on the #Karabakh fighting. (There is a lot more nuance if you watch the whole interview) I’m aware that people like to quote me selectively so important for me to state a few core beliefs I have about this conflict
aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/28…
1 No side has a monopoly of justice. Both sides have historical claims to Karabakh. It was the site of a medieval Armenian kingdom in the 12th century and an Azerbaijani (Persian Turkic Shia) khanate in the 18th c. Both peoples have lived together here, mostly peacefully.
2 There is a lot of propaganda out there. Both sides cannot be right, but both cannot be wrong – and frequently are in their assertions. Treat all official statements from both sides with a big pinch of salt!
Read 11 tweets
Now @NikolPashinyan is addressing Armenians. Talking about what has happened so far, says there's victims both among mil. personnel and civilians, says 🇦🇿 is trying to resolve the conflict thru military means, says 🇦🇲 is ready to defend #Armenia #Azerbaijan #NKpeace
Pashinyan says the escalation might spill over the wider region and calls on int. community to stop it, says the pandemic makes the situation harder. #Armenia #Azerbaijan #NKpeace
The address was very short and precise, he pin pointed what's happened so far and addressed wider security and peace concerns. #Armenia #Azerbaijan #NKpeace
Read 3 tweets
🛑 Ce matin, l’#Azerbaïdjan a lancé des attaques contre l’#Artsakh, des civils ont été touché.

L’#Arménie a répliqué, de nombreux chars, hélicoptères et drones azéris détruits !

#Armenia 🇦🇲💪🏼
4 hélicoptères, 15 drones, 10 chars et un APC de l’#Azerbaidjan détruits par les forces de l'#Artsakh (#Armenie #Armenia) 🇦🇲💪🏼
Nouvelles images de la destruction de véhicules militaires azerbaïdjanais par l'Armée de défense de l'#Artsakh. (#Armenie)

#Azerbaidjan #Armenia 🇦🇲💪🏼

#ArtsakhStrong
Read 42 tweets
1/2 Democracy and peace-building imply change of the rhetoric to less nationalistic, opening of the archives, recognition and apologies for the past crimes. Instead we witness provocative statements and actions of the new government, which definitely do not contribute to peace.
2/2 It is also very sad to read the comments of Armenian liberals supporting the position of Pashinyan. Once again it shows that pluralistic democracies cannot emerge in radical societies: the support of radical majority is populism, not democracy. #NKpeace #Karabakh
Read 3 tweets
1/8 Thread on latest fighting between #Armenia and #Azerbaijan. I wrote this piece last October worrying that with no political movement in #Karabakh talks, the conflict could heat up. (writing this also as cannot respond to interview requests)
worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28275…
2/8 Nothing accidental here. Ceasefire violations are a political decision. Violence went down to almost zero in 2018 after revolution in Armenia due to instructions from both leaders, and with now-ignored 2019 promise to "prepare populations for peace." osce.org/minsk-group/40…
3/8 This is not (yet) repeat of 4-day War of 2016. Fighting is on int. recognized border. This densely populated region was locus of ceasefire violations before 2018 Population is v vulnerable. See excellent @crisisgroup explainer (and read @Olesya_vArt) crisisgroup.org/content/nagorn…
Read 8 tweets
1/3 Check these fresh updates of @CrisisGroup’s visual explainer of the #Karabakh conflict. crisisgroup.org/content/nagorn…
2/3 June was the calmest month of 2020 with no major incidents or casualties, including at #Armenia & #Azerbaijan state border, which remains the most active section of the frontline since late 2018.

The calm comes after a number of calls for restraint amid #COVID19 pandemic. Image
3/3 Do not forget to subscribe for regular updates on the #NKpeace developments.

crisisgroup.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=3a…
Read 3 tweets
c-r.org/learning-hub/p… Read here the personal perspectives of key individuals involved in the production of the Parts of a Circle film series about the challenges they faced and what the experience meant to them. #Armenia #Azerbaijan #Karabakh #NKpeace 1/3
c-r.org/news-and-insig… My blog for @CRbuildpeace reflecting on how the Parts of a Circle film series can contribute to dealing with the legacies of past violence between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. #Armenia #Azerbaijan #Karabakh #NKpeace 2/3
c-r.org/news-and-insig… ICYMI, read and watch a short film about the making of Parts of a Circle here, featuring interviews with the team. #Armenia #Azerbaijan #Karabakh #NKpeace 3/3
Read 3 tweets
THREAD 1/4 #COVID19 pandemic contributed to decreased numbers of incidents and fatalities along frontlines in #Karabakh and between #Armenia and #Azerbaijan.

See most recent updates in @CrisisGroup’s Visual Explainer of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: bit.ly/2W3oa0H
2/4 No fatalities in April. In March both sides reported at least 3 soldiers killed and one civilian wounded. One soldier died from a mine explosion in #Karabakh in the early May. Image
3/4 Despite recent reports of a drone brought down in #Karabakh and intensified visits of military leaderships on both sides of the frontline, incidents still remain rare and far from intensity seen before the April 2016 escalation. Image
Read 4 tweets
1/4 #Russia's FM Lavrov is very good in remembering details. But did he make a mistake this time?

Today he spoke about some sort of document aimed at #NKpeace resolution on the table since April 2019 meeting of #Armenia and #Azerbaijan FMs in Moscow.
2/4 This is strange, because that meeting was about confidence-building measures agreed by the leaders in Vienna, and all implemented last year.

The official statement mentioned only exchange of "detailed views on key aspects of the settlement process," not the document itself. Image
3/4 Lost, still guessing that whatever document possibly discussed is another version of the Madrid principles with its key topics discussed by the sides since launch of the peace process: status of #Karabakh, fate of territories adjacent to former NKAO, and security provisions.
Read 4 tweets
Interesting and significant analysis from @joshuakucera here: is there a deliberate effort by the Armenian government to distance itself from the Madrid Principles? (Thread)
It is significant to see the Principles being depicted by the Armenian PM as ‘Sargsyan’s legacy’. The easiest way to discredit anything in Armenia right now is to frame it as Sargsyan’s legacy.
True, the Madrid Principles have long since become toxic, above all in Nagorny Karabakh itself, despite the fact that in their first iteration at least, they appeared to chart a route to legalised separation from Azerbaijan. aniarc.am/2016/04/11/mad…
Read 11 tweets
How can the rivalry between #Armenia + #Azerbaijan be both enduring + asymmetric? This thread explores the inconclusive strategic interactions between the two states as a factor sustaining the rivalry between them. #NKpeace 1/14
Realist perspectives emphasise asymmetry as one of this rivalry’s key features. This might contradict the idea of enduring rivalry if parity is taken to be an essential pre-requisite for long-term militarised competition to be sustained. 2/14
Yet we know from the Israeli-Arab + India-Pakistan rivalries that this is not necessarily so. These notorious rivalries are starkly asymmetric + suggest that even in scenarios of deep disparity there can be mitigating power configurations moderating asymmetry. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
In ICG's most recent report on the NK, there are few points that, to my mind, it would be better if they were put differently or avoided. Meanwhile, I understand that it has already or will earn more criticism in Armenia and among Armenians living in NK.
On page 21, it says: "While Nagorno-Karabakh has long been home to many ethnic groups, Armenians have been the majority for centuries and Armenian culture and society have deep roots there. The region also figures prominently in Azerbaijan’s history, literature and art."
A historical & cultural perspective weighs heavier in the territorial belonging narratives of the Armenian side than in those of the Azerbaijani side. At least, in the Azerbaijani narratives, the first or strongest reference point is not from a historical or cultural perspective.
Read 10 tweets
Today we are releasing a new big report that discusses three core issues in the #NKpeace process: status of #Karabakh, adjacent territories and security provisions.

Although a complex topic, the report is a very easy read. Check the link for details: bit.ly/36UtshL 1/3
More than 2 years of work went into this paper with over 170 interviews on all the sides and in foreign capitals. We started before anyone could think about #ArmeniaRevolution. The main goal was to see what can be done to start digging out of years-long deadlock in the talks. 2/3 Image
This report is a result of a truly team work with many @CrisisGroup colleagues involved. But I want to particularly thank @giocomai, who did a tremendous desk research, helped with lots of fact checking, including into the trends we could observe in our field work. Check annex: Image
Read 3 tweets
1/12 To the community of researchers and practitioners who focus on the NK conflict,
This is what I wrote a year or two ago in Azerbaijan on my Facebook account. The discursive framework created by the community of researchers and practitioners who focus on the NK conflict is:
2/12 Almost exclusively focused on daily developments - the situation on the line of contact & on the border, statements made by officials, & more recently exchange of visits, meetings of officials, etc. It is quite understandable & much needed to keep en eye on daily issues.
3/12 However, such an almost exclusive focus on daily developments and at the best a period of several months or a year at the maximum have a number of problems but mainly: 1) the public is feed with hopes and disappointments and thus misled;
Read 12 tweets
This series of threads is to the small community of commenters on the NK conflict. I need to share with you my reasons for being harsh in my criticisms to work that some of you delivered or comments that you made in the past two years.
I will continue rebuking you all whenever I have availability and whenever I feel competent enough to do it. In the following threads, I will explain my reasons for it.
There is a reasonably sized community of local and international experts and activists commenting on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This community is actively colonised by the local authorities party to the conflict.
Read 20 tweets
In January 2019 #Armenia and #Azerbaijan foreign ministers agreed to ‘prepare populations for peace’. What does this mean and what are the threats and opportunities for peacebuilding in the #Karabakh conflict today? (Thread, 1/7)
Line of Contact violence has declined since late 2017, a peaceful power transition took place in #Armenia in April 2018, and in September the parties set up an ‘operative channel’ between armed forces (2/7)
But supplying content to ‘preparing populations for peace’, and what this phrase means in practice is still elusive (3/7)
Read 8 tweets

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