Thread by @atatimelikethis

You may have missed this fifth anniversary. On October 8th, 2015, Vote Leave launched.

I thought I'd take a quick look at its 5-year achievements.

1. Strategy & Plan
Those leading Vote Leave have, in political terms, had an enormous amount of time to figure out a plan that would secure a promising future for the UK outside the EU.

Objectively what will historians conclude?

Was there a plan?
Was it realistic?

It's hard to find any evidence to answer yes to either of those questions.

Compared to the EFTA/ETA model offered in 2016 #Brexit is in its 10-13th iteration (depending on how you count)

With 2.5 months to go, the two architects have no better idea for a settlement than 2016.

Most likely now they will fail to find a deal despite (by my count) proposing oto 20 models over the years.

For the UK to leave the EU and become the only major trading economy to have no trade deal secured or even in discussion is contemptible.

"We will survive" is no plan

2. Promises Delivered.

Brexit was a simple Quid Pro Quo with the electorate.

The Quid was to give Johnson & Gove agreement to leave the EU.

The Pro Quo was many promises in return.

This Guardian list shows how all the Pro Quo melted like snow.

theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

As you read through the Vote Leave Propaganda today it looks wild, raving even - especially with Johnson's famous Turkey claim.

Every single statement and promise in the attached presentation has been debunked or backed away from

voteleavetakecontrol.org/why_vote_leave…

voteleavetakecontrol.org/why_vote_leave…

What is interesting, and you see this very clearly in the campaign material, is the transition of Quid to Pro Quo.

Somewhen the gang decided their quid (to leave) would also become the pro quo (to leave).

i.e. we permitted them to leave in return for...leaving.

Mindless.

3. Will we actually Leave?

At this point the chances are low, unless you choose to be wildly naive about the nature of trade bloc influence.

On paper, as a result of failure that has led to legislating to break both international and domestic law, the treaties may end.

But the UK will not actually have left in any meaningful way, it will have sacrificed control and sovereignty and gained massive economic damage in return.

You need only spend 2 minutes in the company of a farmer with EU contracts (80-90% of exports) to know why.

Or for that matter with anyone who has a service business which needs passporting.

Somehow those in Vote Leave spent 5 years on this project and by the end still didn't understand the Single Market and had made no provision to maintain service access.

Lamentable.

So UK is going to be stuck with a ton of unviable customer contracts and service businesses.

It can try to shift them somewhere else, but those relationships and deals take years, and services are people and brands, you can't just shift them...

And then the minor problem

You've also failed to negotiate trade deal continuity so you shift them at economic disadvantage.

It is not going to happen in anything but niche examples and never could.

If that wasn't enough. The Brexiters want to sign a US deal including farming...

Now that's insanity.

Far from great new trade opportunities we'll spend years just getting back to where we were with global EU supported non EU deals.

Meanwhile we'll be stuck with either marginal or unprofitable mutual EU tariffs.

They will control the terms of those imports under their laws.

So sovereignty won't be enhanced, as was predicted it will be reduced.

Vassal State.

And finally there is the question of Geography. All trading nations* have the largest share of their exports with their nearest neighbours, and they all have FTA's.

(*ex US & China => size)

So we'll need, eventually to sign with the EU, no matter how damaging our exit

We'll be the first country in history to have taken a good deal, and swapped it with a worse deal, to the gain of domestic populists

We make Venezuela look smart.

Can we have the adults back now?