Hilary Abernathay. Populists NEVER have a plan
19 Oct,
11 tweets, 5 min read
TLDR. Many if not all Johnson Gov mistakes on #Covid19 are explained by just one thing.
Treating it like Flu.
Trouble is they're still doing that. And it's no more like Flu now than it was in March.
Someone has to remove these negligent idiots...
Thread.
Treating it like Flu.
Trouble is they're still doing that. And it's no more like Flu now than it was in March.
Someone has to remove these negligent idiots...
Thread.
1. Since March I've sent 100s of tweets on one Topic.
UKGov made a huge mistake.
They took a strategy for Pandemic Influenza, applied it but didn't allow for #COVID19 differences.
That's NOT OK once.
But what if they're still doing it.
NOW in October??
If the facts fit⏬
UKGov made a huge mistake.
They took a strategy for Pandemic Influenza, applied it but didn't allow for #COVID19 differences.
That's NOT OK once.
But what if they're still doing it.
NOW in October??
If the facts fit⏬
2. Psychology textbooks are FULL of examples of Group think. Invariably we find after the largest disasters in history, the initial errors were small.
For want of a small rubber seal, Challenger was lost.
For want of a radio so was the Bay of Pigs.
Bad decisions compound.
For want of a small rubber seal, Challenger was lost.
For want of a radio so was the Bay of Pigs.
Bad decisions compound.
3. We know it was Group Think due diligent civil servants.
These forgotten heroes knew a pandemic might hit us.
They knew in a crisis things could go wrong.
So they created safeguards. No individual, even the PM, could make decisions without cabinet input and science review.
These forgotten heroes knew a pandemic might hit us.
They knew in a crisis things could go wrong.
So they created safeguards. No individual, even the PM, could make decisions without cabinet input and science review.
4. The TLDR?
I've counted over 30 serious errors in HMGs approach to #Covid19 eg. Test Track and Trace.
But the civil service planned for that level of mess. So you need to ask, what is the small assumption that broke everything?
THEY ASSUMED A QUICK VACCINE.
AND STILL ARE
I've counted over 30 serious errors in HMGs approach to #Covid19 eg. Test Track and Trace.
But the civil service planned for that level of mess. So you need to ask, what is the small assumption that broke everything?
THEY ASSUMED A QUICK VACCINE.
AND STILL ARE
5. For pandemic influenza:
✅vaccine is inevitable
✅will come quickly
✅can be made at volume (not as fast as you may think)
✅may be unreliable but will have impact on the famous rate of spread Ro
✅people know what to expect
How much of that can we assume for #Coronavirus?
✅vaccine is inevitable
✅will come quickly
✅can be made at volume (not as fast as you may think)
✅may be unreliable but will have impact on the famous rate of spread Ro
✅people know what to expect
How much of that can we assume for #Coronavirus?
6. . if you assume all of it, some of the more unethical, and I'm sorry, but murderous decisions Team Johnson made, are at least understandable.
Sadly for the dead, almost none of those at any level is true of #COVIDー19.
This smallest of initial errors magnified future damage
Sadly for the dead, almost none of those at any level is true of #COVIDー19.
This smallest of initial errors magnified future damage
7. I like to say don't accept conspiracy. It stops real investigation. But it's tempting and even I get distracted by eg. #HerdImmunity
But if you explain incompetence with big things, you miss little details.
Hoping on a vaccine undermined so much.
eg. No plan B? Explained.
But if you explain incompetence with big things, you miss little details.
Hoping on a vaccine undermined so much.
eg. No plan B? Explained.
8. @davidtpegg's done excellent work on this below.
Moreover he's educated me about parts I had no idea existed such as this story linking to the Fuel Blockade.
Worth a read.
theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
Moreover he's educated me about parts I had no idea existed such as this story linking to the Fuel Blockade.
Worth a read.
theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
9. So the evidence grows.
HMG misapplied science.
Looking at @davidtpegg's article, two obvious questions
WITHOUT conspiracy, answer
[How they made the mistakes (chaotic leadership)
[Why they did it?
(Intellectual arrogance)
HMG misapplied science.
Looking at @davidtpegg's article, two obvious questions
WITHOUT conspiracy, answer
[How they made the mistakes (chaotic leadership)
https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1260721437364695041?s=19]
[Why they did it?
(Intellectual arrogance)
https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1244020982966255617?s=19]
10. I don't like politics - it's sociopathic to cover mistakes.
I care about what we do going forward to save lives and economy.
I can't explain why our TTT is in such a mess.⏬
Unless we're negligently still betting on a vaccine that may never come.
I care about what we do going forward to save lives and economy.
I can't explain why our TTT is in such a mess.⏬
Unless we're negligently still betting on a vaccine that may never come.
https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1317409867527761920?s=19
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