A tweet thread:

The monthly @RBI Bulletin is a veritable treasure trove of economic data, albeit retrospective. The October Bulletin was released on 12 Oct: rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Vie…
I look at some economic data that shows how #Coronavirus has ravaged the economy.
The GVA decline in Q1 of 2020-21 (Apr to June 2020) was -22.8% overall but Agriculture actually showed a pos growth of +3.4% compared to the 3.0% a year ago in Q1 2019-20. Manufacturing in Q1 2020 declined -33.8% (a one third) reduction!!) and services fell by a Fifth (-19.2%)
A little known economic indicator is Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). This declined in the April-Jun quarter, wait for it, by nearly HALF, - 47.1%. What is this GFCF? Think of it as investment in the future. Image
This is reflected in the Government's Finances. Chapter 23 of the bulletin gives us this: (see pic). Lots of big numbers to digest here.
1. In the first 5 months (Apr-Aug) of this FY, only 18% of the FullYear est. revenue receipts have been realised. It was 30% last year. Image
2. Of this Tax revenues is 17.4% of the amount estimated in the budget (should be 5/12 or 62%). Non-tax revenue has collapsed even more sharply.
3. The fiscal deficit (that is the gap between total receipts and total spend) was budgeted to be just under 8 Lakh crores (=8 Trn INR)
But that figure has been exceeded already in the first 5 months of the year. The Govt has spent 8.7 Lakh crores MORE than it received through taxes and other income.
Of the total planned expenditure of 30.42 Lakh crores, Interest payments on accumulated public debt amounted to 7 .1 Lakh Cr. In the first 5 months, 41% of the planned expenditure was incurred, as was a third of the interest payments.
Chap 22 has the #IIP data - Index of industrial production. For the Apr-Jul period, the overall general index fell from 130.8 in 2019-20 to 92.6 in 2020-21. Remember that the IIP is an index that is set to a base of 100 in 2011-12 Every sector fell between last year and this. Image
Here is the data as a graphic:
#SlapOnWrist. 5/12 is 42% not 62

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More from @GorwayGlobal

13 Oct
A tweet thread on AYUSH.
I think these traditional medicine systems are here to stay. They are of course pure junk, totally unscientific, snake-oil, voodoo medicine.. call it whatever pejorative term you like.. but they are here to stay.
Why are they here to stay?
Well they are here to stay quite simply because many many people have faith in them. The source of this faith and whether it is faith backed by research is debatable but the fact is people have faith in them. Mainly upper caste Hindus when it comes to Ayurveda,
But homeopathy, Unani and Siddha have their own adherents.China is promoting its #TCM - traditional Chinese medicine and the English speaking world has its #AlternativeMedicine movement. On TCM see: economist.com/leaders/2017/0…
Read 11 tweets
28 Sep
A tweet thread.
It is a strange phenomenon. Not the way in which the judicial and criminal investigation processes have been subverted in India to arrest and oppress victims and punish civil rights campaigners. That is a travesty of justice and a denial of civil rights, alright
It is the brazenness with which such gross acts of egregious violation of constitutional principles and protections of civil liberties are carried out. It is the utter lack of regard for the niceties of due process. It is the widespread support for it among ordinary people.
So the mockery of justice of the #BhimaKoregaon activists's trial and incarceration, the arrest and false charges against #UmarKhalid and the many others falsely accused in the #DelhiRiots police investigation are not only tolerated but actually supported by many in #India
Read 15 tweets
28 Sep
Another weekend of low testing numbers. Yesterday, #India did only 710,000 tests(down from 987k on 26Sept and 1.34 Million the day before that. Officially, there were 82k new cases and 1039 deaths y/day. The total #Cornoavirus infections has crossed the 6 Million mark.
In a World league table, #India is fast catching up on current Number 1 USA.
There are those who argue that for its size of population India has had far fewer infections compared to some countries. But in a global context 18% of the world's cases occurred in India.
Read 6 tweets
26 Sep
This is of course - how most politely to put it - poppycock. Yes, the official so-called active cases count is dropping but that is not because India has the epidemic under control. New cases, officially, are at 85 k plus per day, deaths at 1100 a day.
Unofficially, of course, no one has a clue what the real numbers are. This is just the kind of false optimism and pseudo-science that today's Lancet editorial is all about. India is shoring up big real problems.
This fetish with recovered cases is a peculiar affliction of those who want to put a falsely positive spin on the #epidemic. #Coronavirus infection is an illness that naturally recovers, (unless it kills). Recovery does not mean a bounce back to vigorous health for 10-15% of..
Read 7 tweets
24 Sep
#India's #Coronavirus #epidemic charts for today, 24 September: Image
But India is fast gaining on America's lead. Image
While maintaining its Number One position in the 1-day #Infections league: Image
Read 5 tweets
23 Sep
Any (pseudo) #Nationalists in #India who think that #Coronavirus #pandemic and the changes in #geopolitics presents an opportunity to shift economic power away from #China and to #India should understand shifts in #Energy.
Big shifts in geopolitical balance of pwoer have always depended on catching the latest wave in just the right time. Time was when the world wanted silks and spices and jewels and gemstones; and India had it all.
More recently, everyone wanted the manufactures of the industrial revolution. British colonialism and mercantilism kept India and China out of the running at the time of that wave. The next wave was oil and fossil fuels to power cars and trucks and power stations.
Read 4 tweets

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