Thread by @GorwayGlobal

A tweet thread:

The monthly @RBI Bulletin is a veritable treasure trove of economic data, albeit retrospective. The October Bulletin was released on 12 Oct: rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Vie…
I look at some economic data that shows how #Coronavirus has ravaged the economy.

The GVA decline in Q1 of 2020-21 (Apr to June 2020) was -22.8% overall but Agriculture actually showed a pos growth of +3.4% compared to the 3.0% a year ago in Q1 2019-20. Manufacturing in Q1 2020 declined -33.8% (a one third) reduction!!) and services fell by a Fifth (-19.2%)

A little known economic indicator is Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). This declined in the April-Jun quarter, wait for it, by nearly HALF, - 47.1%. What is this GFCF? Think of it as investment in the future.

This is reflected in the Government's Finances. Chapter 23 of the bulletin gives us this: (see pic). Lots of big numbers to digest here.
1. In the first 5 months (Apr-Aug) of this FY, only 18% of the FullYear est. revenue receipts have been realised. It was 30% last year.

2. Of this Tax revenues is 17.4% of the amount estimated in the budget (should be 5/12 or 62%). Non-tax revenue has collapsed even more sharply.
3. The fiscal deficit (that is the gap between total receipts and total spend) was budgeted to be just under 8 Lakh crores (=8 Trn INR)

But that figure has been exceeded already in the first 5 months of the year. The Govt has spent 8.7 Lakh crores MORE than it received through taxes and other income.

Of the total planned expenditure of 30.42 Lakh crores, Interest payments on accumulated public debt amounted to 7 .1 Lakh Cr. In the first 5 months, 41% of the planned expenditure was incurred, as was a third of the interest payments.

Chap 22 has the #IIP data - Index of industrial production. For the Apr-Jul period, the overall general index fell from 130.8 in 2019-20 to 92.6 in 2020-21. Remember that the IIP is an index that is set to a base of 100 in 2011-12 Every sector fell between last year and this.

Here is the data as a graphic:
public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

#SlapOnWrist. 5/12 is 42% not 62