I'm uncomfortable with comparisons with the 1st wave - there's an implication that as long as numbers are lower, everything's OK, which I disagree with. But with numbers in the NW rising, how do admissions compare? 1/7
At first sight much better. The peak day so far is much lower, and it's taken longer to get to even half that level. (I've assumed the peak was on D14 in the first wave as the later peak appears to be data catch up.) I'll discuss the current trend later. 2/7
If you look at the cumulative position, again we're well down on Wave 1. But interestingly, the total admissions are almost twice that seen by the first peak. They've just been much more spread out. Remember "flatten the curve" - it's clearly had a big effect this time. 3/7
Deaths are much lower too, with "only" 725 hospital deaths so far, compared with 1593 to the first peak day for deaths (138 on 11/4). The peak day so far is 45 on 17/9. Better treatment will be a big part of this, both on general wards and in ICU/HDU's. 4/7
We've seen tentative signs of a levelling off of admissions in the last couple of days, reflected in the moving average stalling, which may be due to recent measures taking effect. We need more data to be sure though, and deaths may take another week to replicate any trend. 5/7
Within this data will be differing pictures by hospital, and it's important not to lose sight of that. This article gives a flavour of the current position. 6/7 independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
Finally, I should note that we don't have data prior to 19th March, so I started both "waves" from an equivalent point of around 50 admissions per day. I don't think it distorts the overall picture. 7/7 ENDS

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More from @john_actuary

23 Oct
The latest weekly report from @ONS on infectivity shows a further increase for England, with 433k (up from 336k) estimated to be infected in the most recent period. That's 1 in 130 (1 in 160), and with 35,200 (27,900) new infections per week. 1/6
The regional trends are starting to show some variation, with some signs of levelling in the last couple of weeks for the worst affected regions. Wider confidence intervals make these more uncertain though, but hopeful signs maybe. 2/6
By age there's a clear fall in early teens, a levelling off for younger adults, but still growth at older ages, albeit at a lower level. Those are the ages which matter in terms of hospitalisation though. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
22 Oct
The latest weekly PHE Flu & COVID Surveillance Report is out. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… At first glance there's been a welcome flattening off of both cases and infectivity, but the age split shows that at older ages there are still increases. Case rates first.... 1/5
Now infectivity levels, for pillar 2 (community testing). Most are still rising steeply, except for younger ages. 2/5
Admissions next, using rates per 100k, to allow for differing populations by region. It's still consistent with the picture @COVID19actuary has been sharing for some time now. The age split shows the concern over older age groups. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
A release from the CDC that I suspect one presidential candidate will find rather untimely. 300,000 excess deaths, a third of which are not directly attributed to COVID - that's a higher proportion than in the UK. 1/4 cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
Media comment already noting that the 25-44 group has been hit hardest. Maybe in terms of % increase, but given very low death rates at younger ages, I'm not sure I'd agree with that view. 2/4 Image
The disparity by ethnicity that we see here is repeated, but just looking at the graphs even more so. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
The @imperialcollege #REACT Survey has published an interim report of its 5th round. The headline is that it suggests R has fallen sharply in recent weeks, and could now be around 1.1 . Let's take a more detailed look... 1/9
The interim report covers 85,000 samples over the period 18th-26th Sept, so is very up to date. It found 363 positive samples, an infectivity of 0.55% (over 1 in 200) , consistent with the latest @ONS report. That's the highest since the survey started in May. 2/9
Round 4 put R at 1.7 for late Aug/early Sep. These results show a clear slowing, and the report notes other indicators (eg calls to the NHS) are consistent with this direction. The CI is wider though as this is an interim report, so the sample size is reduced. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
28 Sep
The @ONS is producing some terrific analysis regarding COVID-19. Today's release provides some maybe predictable, and some maybe surprising, findings regarding the recent spread. Let's start with deprivation. 1/7 Image
We know that in the first wave, the virus took a greater toll on those from more deprived areas, both in terms of incidence and outcomes. But there's a very clear reverse now for incidence, with the most affluent areas driving the increase. 2/7
Digging a bit deeper, it's also clear that it is those under 35 and are more affluent for whom infectivity is rising quickest. For over 35's there's not much difference by deprivation. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
25 Sep
The latest admission for England has topped 300 today, and again a question raised is are these "WITH" COVID or "FROM" COVID? Just like yesterday's analysis of deaths, let's dig into this question a bit... 1/7
First of all, note that any elective admissions, ie for planned surgery, is preceded by a COVID test. If it's positive, the admission doesn't happen. So the only cases that might by chance test positive are emergency admissions for what are believed to be non COVID reasons. 2/7
There are approx 15k such admissions a day. What proportion of them might test positive, yet be totally unrelated? The latest ONS figures give a clue, suggesting that 1 in 500 now has the virus. That would suggest 30, out of the 300 cases. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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