Thread by @atatimelikethis

Victory from Defeat?
An Idea.

I've warned about difficulties Brexiters will face with their current stance if Trump fails to win the election.

Their difficulties can be reslved, but only by rational strategic thinkers.

Do we have any of those in Government?

I'll explain⏬

A few things that you need to accept to run with this thread.

1. No Deal is the worst negotiation option we had. It reveals our walk away and shows we have no leverage. Plus it give up trade deals not only with the EU but all the deals with the rest of the world through the EU.

2. Brexiters claimed it was the only option.
Folly.
The obvious alternative was a beauty contest where we ruled nothing in or out on trade terms, exclusive or shared, waiting on the best bid.

Played well we could even have been a useful ally to US and EU in cross Atlantic Trade.

3. Largest Democrat base is Irish Americans

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1303994974363619328?s=19

4. Biden has been clear on his view [

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1306334039557586944?s=19

]

5. There is no hard #Brexit solution to the NI border

6. No trump exec order US deal will survive the election

7. US can't make up for EU trade.

Hopefully you accept those as facts or political realities you can't change

Let's imagine a Brexiter who has no other ulterior motive to act differently (ha ha)

What do you do to make Brexit a success, fulfill what you believe to the will of the people, and leave UK nit fooked?

A rational Brexiteer.
What a concept!

A) you can hope for Trump reelection , but you don't bet on it.

B) Secondly even the average tea leaf reader can see the House of Representative is staying Democrat during the period of of your negotiation

C) You need a NI solution.

What's obvious, if you're a rational player, is the more you push toward a no deal no leverage position the worse it becomes for the UK.

And actually if you believe Trump can sign deals (I dont, they presumably must), then further signalling that gives him leverage over you too!

So you need to find a position where you can somehow not screw over Northern Ireland (since the Dems won't ever forgive you) but not end up signalling you have no leverage to everyone else.

I can think of at least three we could have been ambiguous about.

Why ambiguous?
Guessing = Leverage.

1. First EFTA/ETA
This was the leave position for ages. Do EFTA now then over time move towards a different state. It was obvious, and they screwed it up with rhetoric.

2. The Common Market.
A different Johnson had a winnable election pitch

We don't like the super state stuff, we just want a partnership with trading nations and to do our own deals where it makes sense for us. So we'll go back to the EEC model. It's just about trade.

Now, there is all sorts of super state bull💩 wrapped up in that, but to many...

...including on the remain side it would have sounded like working with Europe while being more independent. For leave it would solve not only the primary reasons for voting but also add a nice 1970s nostalgia angle that so many crave.

Treaty wise it needed minor changes.

Normal EFTA + an agreement to negotiate separately provided deals did not fundamentally break customs union or single market - and based on what we see with Japan - that would have held.

ECJ resolving disagreements would have been tricky. Compared to today's mess also solvable.

3. Ukraine

Like number 1 but with less of the baggage. Harmonisation in most places, non harmonised in places UK saw to its advantage with sufficient mutual operation that borders didn't need checks/magical solutions.

You'd have to squash the rabid for EU to believe it.

Of course they pursued none of those, and now we find ourselves in a completely predictable nightmare situation.

If you're in denial about everything else in this thread you see at least that No Deal completely kills us under a Biden Predisdency

And Canada is no fall back. For two reasons
a) you can't do it even with the internal market international law breaking amendment due to NI (See Biden) which you still haven't solved.

b) you somehow forgot Canada has 100+ service sector exclusions including Financial Services.

So your EU trade situation is bad to awful even under Canada.

If you thought Brexit was more coherent over time you're wrong. It is more tenuous and messed up now than it has ever been, with the likelihood of Biden Presidency on top.

So what on earth do we do from here?

I have no faith that anyone in HMG is thinking strategically.

But if they were they would know the game is up and come January they are screwed.

So they need
a) a face-saver
b) something quick.

They must know there are no alternatives out there that any "independence" brings

If so the only path I can see for them is option 2.

A New Common Market.
They sell it as a break through win vs the EU.
The ability to strike our own deals (if aligned), and move further away is used to argue "Independence".

Could they pull it off?

Tax receipts say they must.

Post script 1

More on HMG's idiocy and mishandling of out special relationship.

Byline concludes amnesia. I no longer can tell the difference between that and stupidity.

bylinetimes.com/2020/10/21/imp…

PostScript 2
In case somehow you think WTO is a good fallback, you may have missed it is collapsing.

In fact it's collapsing due to political "ideas" like #Brexit.

https://twitter.com/bbaschuk/status/1321935676053557249?s=19