Thread by @IHME_UW

#BREAKING: Researchers from @IHME_UW find demand for beds in US hospital intensive care units is likely to far exceed capacity for #COVID19 patients as early as the second week of April. Press release➡️bit.ly/IHME-COVID19

“The trajectory of the (#COVID19) pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of @IHME_UW.

Health systems can help address excess #COVID19 demand by:

✅Postponing elective procedures
✅Increasing # of beds above licensed capacity
✅Establishing emergency field hospitals
✅Reducing staff-to-patient ratios.

Deaths related to the current wave of #COVID19 in the US are likely to persist into July, assuming people protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials.

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of @IHME_UW.

.@IHME_UW’s state-by-state data analysis – based on observed death rates and existing social distancing measures – estimates that over the next four months, between 38,000 and 162,000 people in the US will die from the virus.

The end of the #COVID19 pandemic, defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide, will occur with the highest probability in the beginning of June for the United States.

.@IHME_UW’s analysis of #COVID19 will be updated regularly as a source of “real-time” information for hospital system administrators and local, state, and federal health policymakers. Download the latest estimates »covid19.healthdata.org/projections

“We hope these forecasts will help leaders of medical systems figure out innovative ways to deliver high-quality care to those who will need their services in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of @IHME_UW.

.@IHME_UW’s analysis of #COVID19 is based on an extensive range of information and data sources including local and national governments, @WHO, social distancing policies, utilization data on hospital beds and ICU capacity, ICU demand in #Italy, and age-specific deaths rates.

Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of @IHME_UW, explains IHME's approach to #COVID19 hospital forecasting in the US:

.@IHME_UW is grateful to @Microsoft’s #AIforHealth program for supporting our hosting of #COVID19 data visualizations in the @Azure cloud.

We updated our #COVID19 forecasting model with:

▪️More data
▪️COVID-19 death models
▪️Ventilator use among US COVID-19 patients
▪️US social distancing policies healthdata.org/covid/updates