Thread by @ulrichspeck

You hear it everywhere: "There's no going back to the good old days of the transatlantic relationship even if Biden wins". But is it true? A thread.

First, the premise is questionable. There are no "good old days" in transatlantic relations. They have never been harmonious. Just like intra-European relations are never harmonious. There have always been clashes between worldviews, interests, personality.

Secondly, what we would see with Biden is a return of Obama people into leading foreign policy positions. The Obama administration was a time when transatlantic relations were good, or very good, when cooperation was largely successful, from the financial crisis to Ukraine.

What has changed since Obama in the US? a) China's rise at the center; b) on trade, Democrats are now sensitive to the interests of Trump's core voters, those who feel left behind by globalisation, c) Trump experience has reminded Democrats of value of alliances and cooperation.

What has changed in Europe? While there was a lot of rhetoric about European independence, Europe has not become more united, or better able to deal with China or the neighborhood without US; instead, internal fault lines more visible. No "structural" change on the European side.

Main goal of a Biden administration would be to restore both, alliances and US leadership. Biden would be the most committed transatlanticist since George H.W. Bush. Neither the four years of Trump nor the rise of China would be an obstacle to that; quite the opposite.

Biden would: recommit to NATO, reach out to Brussel, remove punitive tariffs, end US threats (namely against Germany), be tough with Russia, focus on Turkey, return to the JCPOA and the Paris agreement, invest in democracy (vs autocracy), and work with Europeans on China.

Yes there would be plenty of disagreements, as always. And yes, not everything would be easy. But US and Europe would deal with problems in an amicable atmosphere, based on a joint understanding that cooperation is vital, and that both share fundamental values and interests.

The main driver for the US to seek cooperation with Europeans would not be Cold War nostalgia, but the understanding that America alone is far weaker in a more competitive world, especially against China, and that the Europeans are America's best and most important allies.

On the European side, most countries would be delighted to have an US ready and willing to lead in a cooperative way, as they have found no replacement for US leadership on broader foreign and security policy challenges (Russia, China, MENA).