Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh: The Kremlin seems to loose its iron grip on its neighborhood. This begs the question: How successful has Putin's foreign policy been? A thread.
Starting point: Putin has two major foreign policy goals:
a) Control of the neighborhood, ie Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus, Central Asia, parts of Middle East and North Africa. Pretty much like during the times of the Soviet Union.
a) Control of the neighborhood, ie Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus, Central Asia, parts of Middle East and North Africa. Pretty much like during the times of the Soviet Union.
b) Standing on eye level with the US: be respected globally and have a seat on the table when global issues are being negotiated, one way or the other.
Measured against this, there are only two successes: having annexed Crimea and having turned Syria into a client state, making the Assad regime largely dependent on Russia, militarily and diplomatically.
On the other side, many failures:
- Ukraine lost, as it is on its way to the West and the liberal order;
- Belarus potentially lost, as it may follow the Ukrainian path at least longer-term;
- Diminished influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia, formerly parts of Russia’s „sphere“;
- Ukraine lost, as it is on its way to the West and the liberal order;
- Belarus potentially lost, as it may follow the Ukrainian path at least longer-term;
- Diminished influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia, formerly parts of Russia’s „sphere“;
- Influence in Central Asia increasingly diminished (due to the rise of Chinese influence);
- In Libya lost against Turkey, by betting on Haftar;
- Turkey turned into an adversary and competitor, instead of an ally;
- In Libya lost against Turkey, by betting on Haftar;
- Turkey turned into an adversary and competitor, instead of an ally;
- Lost the huge amount of goodwill that existed in Germany;
- Frustrated hopes in Poland about detente with Russia;
- Deeply angered the US by interfering into its domestic politics.
- Frustrated hopes in Poland about detente with Russia;
- Deeply angered the US by interfering into its domestic politics.
Bottom line: Putin’s foreign policy project, the quasi-restoration of the Soviet Union (in terms of geopolitics), has largely failed; Russian influence is diminished, it is isolated and has almost no friends left.
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