Crude Indian basket picked up marginally in October. Consumption of petroleum products improved both sequentially and YoY in Sept. diesel and petrol prices, however, declined marginally in Oct over Sept, gold imports decline in Sept while gold prices trade in narrow range 
Current Private consumption sentiment remains mixed. While RBI’s current consumer consumer index dipped consistently, next year expectations improve; auto sales and vehicle registrations picked up strongly in Sept over Oct; digital transactions continued to surge.
Credit growth while improving sequentially, stays muted YoY. Business sentiment expectations for next year pick up.
Daily average net liquidity absorption decreased to Rs. 3 lakh crore in first 11 days of Oct vs 4 lakh crore in Sep with call money rate remaining range bound. Bond markets remain buoyant post RBI measures to boost demand for state GSecs- yields declining while excess SLR ⬆️
Centre and state borrowings continue to pick up. Centre not borrowing from WMA window while state borrowings rise. Aadhaar based DBT transactions drop sequentially in Sep in value terms though higher YoY.
Outlook:
Broad based domestic and external recovery. Recent ⬆️ in GST collections and latest RBI measures to support state borrowng creating much needed fiscal headroom. Muted credit, brewing corp-fin stress and festive season driven possible case surge remain downside risks.
Broad based domestic and external recovery. Recent ⬆️ in GST collections and latest RBI measures to support state borrowng creating much needed fiscal headroom. Muted credit, brewing corp-fin stress and festive season driven possible case surge remain downside risks.
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