Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Oct 26 to Nov 01 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries/territories.
21 countries analyzed in the thread.
Data: @ECDC_EU or coronavirus.jhu.edu or ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Austria will be experiencing rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.27) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.38) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing (by mid-week) medium to highu levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/21. France will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, which is currently a bit better controlled (R-eff=1.20) than in CH (1.42), IT (1.38), DE (1.29), PRT (1.27), AT (1.27), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/21. Germany will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.29) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. The Netherlands is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which has substantially reduced its pace (R-eff=1.15 lower than France), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/21. The UK will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, at a reduced pace, lower than FR and NL (R-eff=1.14), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown in Wales for 2 weeks.

8/21. Greece is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, foreseen to increase from medium to high levels at the end of next week, with increasing low- close to medium- levels of mortality.

9/21. Nigeria is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, with decreasing low levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

11/21. Israel has controlled its #COVID19 epidemic activity, now landing in its safety zone and will remain in it, with decreasing high to medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
A thread from @segal_eran on the lessons learnt from this success story:

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1320354822479093762?s=20

12/21. Russia will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, at a relatively low pace (R-eff=1.11), with parallel increase in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. Nepal will be plateauing at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

15/21. Canada will see rising at medium levels its #COVID19 epidemic activity, currently close to controlling its surge (R-eff=1.04), with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

16/21. The USA is foreseen to see rising its #COVID19 cases at moderate pace (R-eff=1.11) although at high level, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Embedded thread for more details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1319939916432900103?s=20

With detailed analyses for 7 states.

17/21. Colombia will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Brazil will be plateauing at medium levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

19/21. Uruguay although moving towards a recent surge in new cases is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lessons learnt from its success story during the winter wave: bmj.com/content/370/bm…

20/21. Argentina will be plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, keeping very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia has successfully controlled its winter #COVID19 second epidemic wave. It will remain within its safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.
New Zealand made errors in reporting to ECDC: 7-d-forecast and analyses no more reliable.

22/21
CH, ESP, replaced by AT, GR
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortlty < 0.50
Very high mortlty > 0.50