Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Oct 18 to Oct 24 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries (21 analyzed in the thread)
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Switzerland will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/21. France will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/21. Germany will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, with increasing although still very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. The Netherlands will be facing one of the most worrying surge in Western Europe in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at very high levels, with increasing medium to high levels (from next Wednesday) of mortality, during the 7 upcoming days.

7/21. The UK will be experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, increasing at a slower pace than last weeks, at high levels, with increasing medium to high levels (from next Tuesday) of mortality, during the 7 upcoming days.

8/21. Spain is experiencing high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with high levels of mortality.

Note: due to discontinuity in reporting to ECDC, 7-day forecasting are made not reliable.

9/21. Morocco will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days

10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, although slight increase with persisting high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/21. Israel is foreseen to be controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activityc, which may reach the safety zone by Wednesday, with remaining high levels of mortality, during the 7 upcoming days.

12/21. Russia will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with parallel increase at medium levels in mortality, for 7 more days.

13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. India is foreseen to be landing in its #COVID19 safety zone from next Monday, with low to very low reported rates of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

15/21. Canada will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, with increasing although low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Note: due to discontinuity in reporting to ECDC or JHU, 7-day forecasting are made not reliable.

16/21. The USA is foreseen to see its #COVID19 case incidence rising at high level of activity, with high to medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
New additional thread for more details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1317389131996160001?s=20

(with detailed analyses for 5 states)

17/21. Colombia seems experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, plateauing at high levels of mortality, as foreseen for 7 more days.

18/21. Brazil is experiencing a decrease in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, plateauing at medium levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

19/21. Uruguay is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

20/21. Argentina is plateauing at high levels just after having reached a peak in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have both successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 second epidemic waves. They will remain within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50