Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Oct 28 to Nov 03 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries/territories.
21 countries analyzed in the thread.
Data: @ECDC_EU or coronavirus.jhu.edu or ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Austria will be experiencing rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.25) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.35) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/21. France will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, which is currently a bit better controlled (R-eff=1.24) than in CH (1.35), IT (1.35), DE (1.29), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/21. Germany will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge (R-eff=1.29) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. The Netherlands is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, which has substantially reduced its pace (R-eff=1.14 lower than France), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/21. The UK will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, at a reduced pace, lower than FR and close to NL (R-eff=1.12), with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown in Wales for 2 weeks.

8/21. Ireland seems succeeding in breaking its exponential growth in #COVID19 new cases (R-eff=1.0), foreseen to plateauing at high levels, with low levels of mortality.
The country is under new lockdown for six weeks.

9/21. Rwanda is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, with low levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

11/21. Israel has successfully controlled (R-eff=0.50) its #COVID19 epidemic wave, landing towards its safety zone, with decreasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
A thread from @segal_eran

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1320354822479093762?s=20

on the lessons learnt from this success story

13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. Nepal will be plateauing (R-eff=0.99) at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

15/21. Canada has succeeded to slow its #COVID19 epidemic activity, currently close to controlling its surge (R-eff=1.06) at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

16/21. The USA is foreseen to see rising its #COVID19 cases at moderate pace (R-eff=1.11) although at high level, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Embedded thread for more details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1319939916432900103?s=20

With detailed analyses for 7 states.

17/21. Mexico will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, leaving its safety zone (R-eff=1.21), with increasing medium to high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Brazil will see its #COVID19 epidemic activity decreasing high to medium levels, with decreasing high to medium levels of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

19/21. Uruguay is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lessons learnt from its success story (bmj.com/content/370/bm…) during its winter wave.

20/21. Argentina seems to have observed its peak (R-eff=0.97) in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, foreseen to be remaining at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 epidemic wave. They will remain both within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21
CH, ESP, replaced by AT,IRL
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortlty < 0.50
Very high mortlty > 0.50