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27 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
As China kicks off its 5th Plenum this week, read our in-depth forecast of Xi Jinping's political plan for China in the next five years. macropolo.org/analysis/forec… Image
1/ In 2025, Xi Jinping will remain General Secretary of the CCP, Chair of the Central Military Commission, and President of the PRC.

He will likely emerge the strongest he has ever been after the 20th Party Congress in 2022. macropolo.org/analysis/china…
2/ We forecast that it’s unlikely that a clear successor will emerge from the 2022 political transition, to avoid diluting Xi’s authority as the CCP focuses on executing his domestic reform agenda. macropolo.org/analysis/china…
3/ Xi will likely focus his power on “the politics of execution” in his third term, as the 14th Five-Year Plan begins his strategy to transform China into a superpower by 2035. macropolo.org/analysis/china…
4/ This program will strengthen governance, discipline, and ideology to enhance Beijing’s ability to transmit policy through central agencies and local governments. macropolo.org/analysis/china…

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More from @MacroPoloChina

MacroPolo Profile picture
28 Oct
💡NEW ANALYSIS: As China maps out its next five-year plan during the Plenum, here's what we are watching:

Dual circulation (with a different interpretation);
Inequality;
Unemployment target;
Deleveraging & Property Tax.

Read the analysis: macropolo.org/beijing-formal…
1/ You've probably heard of "dual circulation." It has been widely interpreted as an inward shift, but we argue it's mainly about repackaging existing reforms to achieve organic growth - which will naturally make China’s economy more attractive & open. macropolo.org/beijing-formal…
2. Dual circulation is also simply an acknowledgement of reality.

China's economic rebalancing has not been sustainable, and policy advisors like Liu He has long argued for a more sustainable rebalancing based on domestic consumption & income growth. macropolo.org/beijing-formal…
Read 6 tweets
MacroPolo Profile picture
27 Oct
🌲🌲What will be some trends in energy and climate policy in China over the next five years?

Here are our base case predictions. macropolo.org/analysis/china… Image
1/ Will China fulfill the goal set out by Xi Jinping to achieve peak emissions before 2030? Image
2/ Will the cost renewables like solar and wind become competitive with that of coal? Image
Read 6 tweets
MacroPolo Profile picture
1 Sep
20 years after China's WTO accession, many have declared China a "winner" & the US rustbelt a "loser" of global trade. But what about the economic impact within China? Have all regions gained equally? Our Summer Associate Jessica Redmond explores the data: macropolo.org/analysis/china…
1/ The project tracked regional trade & FDI patterns from 1993-2019, and found that since WTO accession, the coastal provinces of Zhejiang & Jiangsu emerge as clear “winners,” and Heilongjiang, Liaoning, & Jilin provinces (Northeast rustbelt) as “losers:" macropolo.org/analysis/china…
2/ Although still far below the level of the east coast, the central & western regions such as Guangxi & Chongqing saw relatively large gains in trade after 2010.

Down south, despite always being a leading trade hub, Guangdong has seen a relative fall in trade:
Read 6 tweets
MacroPolo Profile picture
18 Mar
As #covid19 becomes a global pandemic, how do countries manage economies & withstand the impact?

In this new analysis, economist @hzsong assesses the effectiveness of China’s economic policies during #covid19 & offers some recommendations.

Thread below: macropolo.org/coronavirus-ec…
1/ We argue that in the case of a pandemic, the return to normalcy hinges on a healthy demand. That means people have the confidence to consume.

The key to policy effectiveness, then, is to prevent business from bankruptcy or laying off workers. macropolo.org/coronavirus-ec…
2/ Here’s what Beijing did:

1) reducing employers’ social security contributions;
2) delaying loan payments;
3) cutting interest rates;
4) increasing fiscal expenditure.

We use one test to measure these policies’ effectiveness: credit spread. macropolo.org/coronavirus-ec…
Read 8 tweets
MacroPolo Profile picture
20 Aug 19
THREAD. Once a controversial policy, “Made in China 2025” has virtually disappeared in Chinese media. When did it happen & why?

Our summer associate @eliotchen97 sifted through 2,975 media reports, & visualized MIC2025 coverage over the last 5 years: macropolo.org/analysis/made-…
@eliotchen97 1/ By reconstructing the sequence of events that led to the outcome on both the US & China sides, this media analysis attempts to quantify and explore the correlation between American elite perceptions & whether they affected China’s responses to MIC2025. macropolo.org/analysis/made-…
@eliotchen97 2/ This visualization captures both the blow-by-blow and the scale of US & Chinese media coverage of MIC2025 from 2014 to 2019.

Hover over each dot to see the specific headline & click on the icon on the right to see political events happening at the time:macropolo.org/analysis/made-…
Read 10 tweets
MacroPolo Profile picture
15 Apr 19
1/ THREAD. The US talent pool is leading the AI race, but much of that talent aren’t, in fact, made in the USA.

To gauge where AI talent in the US stands globally, let’s take a look at where the world’s top AI scientists are from: macropolo.org/us-china-ai-ra…
2/ AI talent in America ≠ American AI talent.

Roughly 60% of the world’s top AI scientists work in the US, but more than half of that talent pool are highly educated immigrants. Hover over our chart to break down the numbers: macropolo.org/us-china-ai-ra…
3/ And where do these highly educated immigrants come from? None other than America’s supposed rival in the #AI race: China. And despite incentives offered by Beijing, the majority of these Chinese scientists are staying at US institutions: macropolo.org/us-china-ai-ra…
Read 4 tweets

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