check out the reduction in minimum demand in south australia…

from @AEMO_Media's QED Q3 report
lowest Q3 electricity prices since 2014:
spot prices are down 👇
a bit of a complex chart, but basically shows that solar, wind and brown coal pushed out black coal, gas and hydro.

brown coal: there were some long-term outages in Q3 last year
hydro: dry july
gas: surprising given that gas cost has been so low.
significant shift in contribution from individual coal generators.

most of it is due to outages (planned and unplanned) — but big net reduction in QLD is due to solar (and a bit of gas).
another reasonably complex chart for the uninitiated, but this one shows the black coal fleet has significantly dropped their prices (ie. market bids) since the same period last year.

…but they _still_ sold *fewer* MWh.

(so income will be way down, reducing viability.)
record wind power generation:
• decent wind
• more turbines
increasing (and self-correlated) solar is driving down market value.

look at that volume weighted price for solar in SA in september… 😬
fascinating curtailment information…

growth mainly due to:
• emerging issue of system strength in QLD
• increasing "economic curtailment" (turning off because market price is "too negative")
seeing negative pricing more often at the two ends of the NEM (SA & QLD).

(in line with increasing economic curtailment.)
FCAS (frequency control ancillary services) costs have dropped significantly.

more supply, bidding lower.
since its recent expansion, the @tesla hornsdale battery has captured 1/6 of the country's FCAS market!
…in line with the lower FCAS prices, revenue for the NEM batteries was weak.

"still not a strong signal for energy arbitrage"
pumped hydro enjoyed a strong Q1, but market signal is weak.

(this is a hugely important point: the market signal for storage in the NEM is pretty weak.)
lowest gas prices since 2015… no, this has nothing to do with @AngusTaylorMP or the #GasLitRecovery nonsense — driven by international oil/gas market dynamics.
these super low prices are way below what's needed to develop new gas fields.
big thanks to jonathan myrtle and his team at @AEMO_Media for the slides above and @MEIunimelb for hosting.

the QED is a fantastic contribution to energy understanding in australia.

aemo.com.au/energy-systems…

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More from @simonahac

21 Oct
🧵the sloppy advocacy of #nuclear zealots

earlier this year adelaide-based nuclear lobby group @BNW_Aus submitted this chart (sans emoji) to the #victorian parliamentary inquiry into #nuclear prohibition.

one problem: it’s 🐂💩!
.@BNW_Aus claims to be an environment group, yet *all* they seem to do is fight against australia’s nuclear bans.

i’ve no problem with nuclear advocacy — nuclear technology is pretty amazing & we should keep our minds open — but why not just be honest & admit your sole purpose?
the chart aims to show that nuclear is awesome because it’s just so thrifty.

BNW's GM @dayne_eckermann says it’s relevant because “you need materials mined from the ground to make things. it's better if we limit that as much as possible to protect the environment”.

fair enough.
Read 30 tweets
22 Sep
angus starts by talking up the role of technology in civilisation… as if this is new.
apparently snowy hydro is an example of home grown technology. hmmmm.
Read 35 tweets
19 Sep
🤓 carbon capture & storage has been given a bad rap.

yes, we've wasted $billions trying to graft it on to coal — we absolutely need to give up on that — but it's likely we'll eventually need the technology.

firstly… #CCS+coal:
there are / have been just 3 significant #CCS+coal projects:

1. boundary dam🇨🇦: $1.4bn project captures CO₂ from a 110 MW coal unit (tiny), averaged 0.592Mt/yr since oct 2014 — 40% below design.

25% of the plant's power goes to extracting and compressing the CO₂. Image
2. petra nova🇺🇸: heralded by @JoshFrydenberg in 2017, cost US$1bn to build, captured ~4mtCO₂ before being mothballed this year as was uneconomic.

NRG built a 75MW gas power station to power the CCS project. Image
Read 14 tweets
2 Sep
🤓 these @OpenNem charts are close to art IMHO…

here's the *proportion* of power in the NEM from coal, renewables and gas over the past week (30 minute intervals). Image
…victoria… Image
…NSW… Image
Read 8 tweets
26 Aug
🤓 remember all that fuss about grid reliability, when we urgently needed NEG's reliability g'tee?

pfft!

@AEMO_Media's latest report reveals grid's expected "unserved energy" remains low — ie. easily meets the 99.998% reliability standard.

SA & VIC expected to exceed 99.9994%! Image
…interestingly, in every scenario *grid* energy is projected to decrease.

why?
• more rooftop solar (reducing demand from grid)
• energy efficiency
• economic activity

(but including rooftop solar, total energy consumed generally rises year on year.) Image
…as things stand, even with #liddell coal power station closing in 2022/23, there is no technical requirement to build new dispatchable generation before 2029.

…unless, of course, coal power stations start falling over sooner than expected. Image
Read 11 tweets

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