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29 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
"It's 1980 all over again!"
“Well, it wasn’t 1980 -- but it was a lot like 2008”:
“Biden really ran up the score in metro areas and got the turnout Hillary couldn't in Milwaukee and Detroit, but wow -- Trump really did hold on to that rural white support":
“Holy cow, that flood of same-day Trump voters even got him Pennsylvania. Democrats are counting their lucky stars that Nebraska does its electoral votes by congressional district.”
“Oh wait, Nevada has a ton of non-college white voters too”

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More from @SteveKornacki

Steve Kornacki Profile picture
21 Sep
Morning Consult poll - new SCOTUS justice should be picked by:

Winner of election 50%
Trump, no matter who wins 37%

morningconsult.com/2020/09/21/sup…
---
Looking back at '16, NBC/WSJ asked several times about how the Scalia seat should be filled:

February 2016
Vote on Obama pick 43%
Leave vacant & wait for new president 42%

March 2016
Vote on Obama 48%
Leave and wait 37%

April 2016
Vote on Obama pick 52%
Leave and wait 30%
Except after Scalia's death, the Trump/GOP position in '16 was broadly unpopular. It's remembered as successful because he won and more Trump voters cited the court as their top issue. But again what I wonder is....
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
21 Sep
In the summer of '16 and again this summer, Pew asked what issues voters consider "very important," with SCOTUS importance rising 4 points among Dem voters and falling 9 w/ Trump voters:

2016
Clinton voters 62%
Trump voters 70%

2020
Biden voters 66%
Trump voters 61%
While the court was more central to Trump voters in '16, Trump also fared poorly in '16 polls on broad SCOTUS questions. The Oct. '16 NBC/WSJ poll asked which candidate would be better when it came to making SCOTUS appointments:

Clinton 48%
Trump 38%
Like everyone, I'm curious if this new fight will scramble the numbers - if R's calling this very important will spike, if the Dem number will ratchet up too, if there will end being a disparity between the parties, etc. But I also wonder what all of this is really measuring.
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
1 Sep
"If your name were Edward Moore, your candidacy would be a joke."

8/27/62 Boston Globe front page after 30-year-old Ted Kennedy's Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Edward McCormack (nephew of the Speaker of the House), made his famous debate attack: ImageImage
It was desperate move by McCormack, who got clobbered by Kennedy in the Democratic primary a few weeks later. Kennedy went on to win nine more Massachusetts Democratic primaries (8 for the Senate and one for president) and finished his career 10-0 in them.
June 1946: 29-year-old WW II vet John F. Kennedy wins the Democratic primary in MA's 11th congressional district Image
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
26 Aug
This would be, if it stands, the first Kennedy loss in a Massachusetts Democratic primary
Here is the history (Technically RFK finished 2nd in the '68 primary, but he wasn't on the ballot and had encouraged his supporters to vote for McCarthy): Image
The closest to a Kennedy loss in this time was probably the '98 Gov race, which then-Rep. Joe Kennedy II was preparing to run in. But polls were very bad for him in '97 (there was a scandal at the time involving his brother Michael) and he opted not to run.
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
18 Aug
From a 1976 Republican convention video featuring President Ford's chief of staff, Dick Cheney: Image
This was also the era when they still hung enormous banners with pictures of the nominee from the rafters: Image
I'm enthralled by this video. Here's NBC anchor John Chancellor pulling out his binoculars to watch Mr. and Mrs. Ford take the stage: Image
Read 4 tweets
Steve Kornacki Profile picture
31 Jul
I believe the last time a Kennedy trailed in a statewide poll in MA was mid-September 1994, when Mitt Romney had a 2-point lead over Ted Kennedy in a Boston Herald/WCVB poll
Image
Also when then-Rep. Joe Kennedy II was considering a gov bid in '97, he ran far behind then-Gov. Bill Weld, soon-to-be Gov. Paul Cellucci, and state Treasurer Joe Malone. (At the time, the Kennedy family was embroiled in several scandals.) Image
Read 4 tweets

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