30 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Rallies vs Polls? And How About The Election Book?

If you head over to Drudge, you'll quickly see that we need not wait for the election to declare Biden the winner. Even the betting oddsmakers have collapsed Trump's chances.
2) Let's talk about the betting first. As I understand it, the going cost of building a new casino in Vegas runs between a cool Billion and a Billion and a half, or so. How many casinos are there in Vegas? I don't know. Maybe, billions and many billions worth?
3) Event gambling can only be what tiny fraction of the revenue stream. I can be a very devious and crafty man. If I were advising the Democratic leadership, I'd tell them with wincing, buy out the entire book this year. How much could it cost?
4) I'm going to make a completely uneducated guess of, well, between $50 and $100 Billion. Who knows, maybe a friends and family discount could be found. What's really at stake here? How many trillions of dollars passes through the military-industrial complex?
5) How many trillions of dollars passes the K Street lobbying on behalf of every foreign government on earth? If you that that a measly $100 Billion could not only save your power buy multiply it, you'd drop the money in a heart beat. It's what you do.
6) And why would I give that dastardly counsel? People who are suspicious of polling naturally turn to the betting books thinking that the bookies wouldn't want to lose money, so they'll back an honest lead. But what if they were bought off? Nope. I have no evidence. None.
7) All I'm saying is that if I were their immoral consultant, that's what I'd do. Now, be clear, please, I would NEVER do that in my actual skin that I wear on my body. I would never sell out America. What I'm giving you is a hypothetical. They have me, that's what I'd counsel.
8) It would sound something like this: Look guys, we know that those cheap sellouts in the polling industry have given us the best polls our money could buy. It was a good investment, we've gotten our returns as well as can be. It's not enough. We're still actually behind.
9) Fictional, evil consultant Pasquale continues: Thing is, last time, people looked to the election book and it gave Trump way too much credibility. So...why don't we just buy the entire book outright? Let's back it against any and all losses, and have it throw our way?
10) Since I have an evil fantasy world at the tip of my thoughts always available anyway, it's very easy for me to ask myself, if you were a really, really bad guy, what would you do? The answers are always far to near the surface for any sort of moral comfort. I'm good at bad.
11) One of the most powerful assets that the evil doers really do enjoy is called cognitive dissonance. When our minds cannot be as evil as theirs are, we see evil, but do not understand it. We don't really believe our eyes. That blindness is their greatest shield.
12) As we know steel sharpens steel, and you send a sniper to hunt a sniper, and you absolutely send a thief to catch a thief, it takes an evil mind to recognize the presence of evil itself. I know that places me right there, in the ranks of those with evil minds. I have one.
13) Who here has studied the creation story, in Genesis, with a special attention to the Tree of The Knowledge of Good and Evil? First Eve, then Adam consumed its fruit and came to know both. I feel like they were my parents. That's the pie we ate at holidays.
14) Again to be clear, it is absolutely my call that Trump will win on Tuesday. Idiotic optimist that I am, I've even called that we'll know Tuesday night. I have a single, fundamental case. Democratic left vs Democratic middle, ne're the twain shall meet.
15) Lie to the left...there will be NO fracking in a Biden administration. Lie to the middle...we will NOT end fracking. Stuck in the middle with myself. Lying to both, I think I'll campaign here in Delaware again today. Right? Let's put a lid on this one. Come on, man!
16) So what about the rallies vs polling question we hear so much about on the news, now? First, it's simply ridiculous. There is no such thing. Rallies are NOT in the same category as polling. A campaign cannot poll itself. It is not a campaign verb.
17) I know, they reveal their corruption by acting as if polling was a campaign method. They certainly pay enough for it. It is certainly a campaign spend. But it does not rise to the level of rallying.
18) Here's an apples to apples comparison. Rallies vs Advertising spend. It costs money to run a rally. It costs money to buy TV time. Each are legitimate actions, legitimate spends. Polling is NOT in that category, no matter how much it costs.
19) There is another lie hidden in here. They're trying to tell you that showing up at a rally is NOT a meaningful expression of your support. They did this in 2016, and I virtually laughed it off. This year, I'm not laughing. Their attempts to silence you are unceasing.
20) Back to polling again. I could NOT believe my eyes when I saw this article. If you know me, you know I take these things personally. I know, it's silly, but there you have it. So, when I'm reading this, I feel I'm being rebutted, personally.

21) No, not as in a punch to the gut. Rather, more like a measly little arm slap. Still, they're on my turf here. And, even if they've never heard of me, I am still challenged to respond. Besides, they likely are reading me...ha!
22) In this weak, limp, arm slappy article, there are 3 points as to why polling rocks this year where it bombed 4 years ago. Here are their 3 points:



23) Every poll that oversamples Democrats and under-samples Republicans has to LOVE this 1st point. A better job reading Trump's base, they claim? What hogwash. Pure trifle. And what a LIE!
24) Here's an interesting quote from their first claim:

"Not all polls are showing Biden with such a wide lead. Republican-leaning polls have shown Trump doing much better nationally and in some battleground states."
25) Can you feel it? They're running scared. They likely know how very bad the true poll numbers are for Biden. What's more, it's obvious they're lying. Pollsters are SUPRESSING Trump's base, NOT reading us better. It's absolutely idiocy to claim anything else.
26) Everyone says there are fewer undecided voters now. While I disagree, completely, it goes deeper. They don't know that. That's an unknowable. Mr Voter, Sir, are you really decided, or are you faking it for some reason? Oh no, I'd never fake being decided, never!
27) The term for this is circular reasoning. We know our polling is doing better this year, since there are fewer undecided. And we know that, because we polled it!
28) It may be true that there are fewer undecided voters this year. It may be. But the last people I'd ever trust to figure that out are the pollsters who called for Clinton 2 in 2016. The article reveals its bias right there.
29) The last argument is the best - by which I mean worst. We've cured ourselves by a focus on State Polling. Uh huh. There's no chance that State Polling has the same flaws, fallibilities, and foibles as National Polling. No chance.

State Polling is the answer! NOT.
30) Let's return to the topic of evil. Neighborhood, County, State or National, this question is evil:

* How do you feel about Trump's mishandling of the Corona Virus? *

Yep. That question is asked in polls.
31) I wonder how much revenue the polling industry rakes in. I wonder if someone with sufficient funding...say, backed by the Chinese Communist Party...might not be able to buy the entire operation. As in the whole thing. Every poll willing to sell out. How many wouldn't?
32) Freedom is simply and absolutely not free. How many lives are given in sacrifice each and every day? We don't know. That is a data point the MSW SHOULD consider. Elections should have attached upon tit their very eyes soulid
34) If we fail to pay for it with the blood of our efforts, our children will pay for it with the blood of their bodies.
35) I can't tell you what will happen on Tuesday. I can only call it the way I see it. I don't see it their way.

Do you?
Thread ends at #35.

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More from @ThyConsigliori

31 Oct
31 October 2020 #MAGAanalysis

It's Now Or Never

I hate the words, "This is the most important election of our lives." I get the Chicken Little feeling, and the boy who cried wolf too many times emotion when I hear them.
2) Not that I paid that much attention to elections, I really didn't, but I don't remember Bush 41 v Clinton being touted that way. Or even Bush 43 v Gore, or v Kerry. It probably was, but I don't remember it. Not even McCain v Obama or Obama v Romney. I must be wrong, right?
3) I can tell you this. I certainly felt that way about 2016, my first moment of activism. I still think that I was right at the time. Once we won, I was pretty much certain that however important 2020 might be, it would be less important than 2016 had been.

Read 26 tweets
29 Oct
29 October 2020 #MAGAanalysis

Optimism vs Pessimism

We begin today's analysis with an article from LinkedIn. I'm no big fan of LinkedIn. But this is an important article, right now!

2) The true significance of their survey is simply this. We can handle COVID. The Biden campaign has proffered, as their single most important case, that COVID is so big that we must bow before its threat. We have to address the logic of this.
3) Choosing COVID as the core basis of their campaign is built upon this hypothetical:

Since we say Trump did bad, if we were in power, we'd have done better.

As a salesman, I'm here to tell you, hypotheticals do not sell. They do not close.
Read 21 tweets
28 Oct
28 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

So, Here's A Backdoor - Go Figure!

How do you not love @dbongino? He posted this story, yesterday, written by @johnhawkinsrwn. I have to tip my hat in respect. I didn't find this stuff!

2) I know, I always say I'm going to stop charting - monitor but not chart - Dornsife and then they always pull me back in. I'm such a data addict, I can't help myself. But, I'm going cold turkey today. No charts, and the article above is why. I'll explain.
3) Oh,. I almost forgot! Great thanks out to @mflixx who sent me this story, yesterday. You're the man, Matt!

Now let's turn to the irritating part. Look at this headline:

"USC Dornsife Polling Predicts Another Trump Victory Next Week"

I did NOT know that. That's irritating.
Read 36 tweets
27 Oct
27 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

DJIA Work + Dornsife's Book Cooking

A big day of charts. My hope is to go 1 or 2, and hopefully no more (unless necessary) comments per chart. We dive in right now, with the DJIA first, Dornsife second. This is the 40-year chart.
2) What you see are 2 simple support lines. We don't have time to correlate the lines to their presidents, but a nod must be given to Obama, as his support and Trump's are a single line. I hate saying it, but my charts simply do not lie. Support is support, and there you see it.
3) The thing is, and we'll see this soon, Trump's support would NOT be on a line with Obama's if it weren't for the China Virus. But more on that to come, below...
Read 32 tweets
26 Oct
26 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

The Battle Is Keen

We're in the thick of it right now, my friends. Contrary to most other media, I will NOT tell you who the easy winner is. I wish it were Trump. But, not knowing that, easy is not what we'll be studying.
2) As I've explained, I do not trust this data. I believe it is being manipulated. However, if once the dust settles the outcome look like this, I will bow in humility. My call, on the contrary. is that even that this, the most honest poll at Dornsife, is still being manipulated.
3) Out of an abundance of discipline, pretending this data were true, here's where we go. This is the updated entire campaign season Dornsife data, marked up by me. On this scale, the cear outlines of battle are best suited to this data.
Read 16 tweets
25 Oct
25 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote #MAGAanalysis

The Strange Art of Self-Promotion

@realDonaldTrump has taken the art of Self-Promotion, as it were, from water mills to cold fusion (stars run on cold fusion). In this thread, I must emulate him to the degree I'm able.
2) On that note, yesterday's thread, retweeted above, is one you'll want to read. You'll want to read it from start to finish. Well, I didn't really finish it. I got interrupted by events in the real world. But, the stuff that's there is part of today's story. Please do read it.
3) Below, we will turn to today's chart work. It is very interesting. But right now, I have to cut to the chase on the self-promotion thing. Let's talk about this. In today's world, there is a GREAT CHARGE AGAINST self-promotion. Today's most detested value is egotism.
Read 57 tweets

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