Thread by @ThyConsigliori

27 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

DJIA Work + Dornsife's Book Cooking

A big day of charts. My hope is to go 1 or 2, and hopefully no more (unless necessary) comments per chart. We dive in right now, with the DJIA first, Dornsife second. This is the 40-year chart.

2) What you see are 2 simple support lines. We don't have time to correlate the lines to their presidents, but a nod must be given to Obama, as his support and Trump's are a single line. I hate saying it, but my charts simply do not lie. Support is support, and there you see it.

3) The thing is, and we'll see this soon, Trump's support would NOT be on a line with Obama's if it weren't for the China Virus. But more on that to come, below...

4) This is the 5 Year chart, and here's what it tells you. Pay NO attention to today's or last week's or even this month's data. Look at it over the longer term, and the story begin to reveal its true colors.

5) I'm tempted to redraw the 40-Year chart to include this new, higher support line but you can do that just as well as I can if you try. The key to note, more important than any other, is that Trump has created a new support line and has, in spite of COVID, reestablished it!

6) I think this is my favorite chart today. It shows China's war against us and the Democratic leadership's sell-out alliance with China. The top blue line is where Trump had us headed. The 2nd blue line is the current support we're enjoying now. Only Trump could have done that.

7) It could be that this is my actual favorite chart today! This is classic Trump. A vast disaster occurs, greater than any we've ever faced. Biological warfare has made it's first attack upon us. What do we do. First thing is just look at the data!

8) I know I recently mentioned how calm these charts make me. They simply need to make sense, clear, common sense. On this 6 Month chart, we can see what Trump has done in leading our nation's response. We've never seen anything like this. This is Trump's Bull Market!

That concludes our DJIA work for today. We have new Dornsife charts to turn to next. But, your writer, dear friends, needs to take a break. He will return, you may be assured.

9) I was so irritated at Dornsife today, I thought to not share my charts. So there. Besides, I'm getting very tired of the feeling that they read my charts and push their data around in response. They're pissing me off now, like, seriously. But...here we go...

10) Would you just look at that? Damn, how does that happen? Just suddenly, we drop the high and low ends of the Insignificant Difference Area at precisely the same angle that we plummet Trump. Uh huh. And, guess what, Biden is down also. Both down, plus the margin lines.

11) A day like today makes me wish I'd finished my college degree, but changed majors to statistics. Don't let me start talking about college. What in tarnation is the method driving these margin of error lines? And how do the manipulate them, and thereby the poll itself?

12) So sadly, that question is above my statistician paygrade for now. But, even without the statistics, are you kidding? That is so obviously cooking the books it breaks my brain. I can see and feel it. Can't you?

13) It gets worse. Biden is DOWN on all the other major charts Dornsife published today. He's down here too. It just that both the margin of error lines AND Trump are down much, much more...but ONLY on this one chart. I have to rag on that.

14) They were around or over 3 hours late posting their data this morning. Here's my egotistical theory. They have to read my most recent charts first, before they manipulate their data so as to defeat my analysis. We have to go psychopathological now. There's a term for my case.

15) The term is "Problems of Reference." When you think the light turned green for you, just in time so you wouldn't be late for your appointment, you're interpreting the external event as if it were controlled by your own personal needs. Problem of reference.

16) As if the street light referred to you, and to your interest. The logical basis of this false thought is a confusion between correlation and causation. Your need does NOT cause the light to turn. Your benefit and the light turning are correlated...by chance. It just happens.

17) Do you follow what I'm doing with all that? That is the counter-case to Dornsife even knowing who I am, let alone following my work, let alone cheating with their data in response to my work. See what I did there? I showed how able I am to oppose my own theory. Ha!

18) Let's move on. But, don't think I'm done thinking they read my work and respond. Got that? Okay, here's our next chart. Again, look at Biden continuing downward, and now, today, Trump plummets too. How does that happen? And why? Obviously, I don't buy this.

19) Still, at least it's not boring, it's interesting. I think it's very creative on Dornsife's part. But, no matter, lines I drew weeks and weeks ago continue to hold. At least I have that for comfort. My lines hold. Whew.

20) And here's Good Old Joe. By the way, I like that moniker. I love sarcasm, though, and many people might not catch that by "good" I mean "bad." I do love this chart. I could almost even believe in it. Almost. Damn I hate untrustworthy data! I digress...

21) Who remembers technical analysis vs fundamental? This technical chart SHOUTS OUT for fundamental work. I can't speak to the first two collapses, fundamentally. This 3rd one? Easy as pie, and almost as sweet. Within 6 hours, son of a bitch, the prosecutor was fired.

22) Joe Biden is a corrupt multi-millionaire, after 47 years in political service, though pure, rank corruption, has become richer than even he ever dreamed. What a great gig! And it's coming out, and it's coming out in time to affect the vote. America is disgusted by this.

23) And what's the Biden campaign strategy? Assume victory. No need to fight for it or work hard. Nah. Spend other people's money, hang out in your basement, and stride into the White House in January. Wait, doesn't this strategy sound familiar. Wonder who came up with it.

24) Now let's look at Trump. I think the Dornsife people saw this chart yesterday. I suspect they saw the brand new resistance line I drew and chose to work the line. They know Dow Theory, and maybe my own use of it. Boom, down Trump goes and also my lines and analysis on them.

25) Why was Dornsife so late in releasing its numbers today? I put forward that it was two objectives. One is to present credible data, leaning solidly in their direction but living up to Obama's mandate.

26) The second is to thwart my work. They know who I am, I believe, and they know that I have gleaned from within the hundred means of data manipulation they employ, the code key to break their method of manipulation. More simply, to use my own lines against me.

27) Happily getting myself out of the picture, Dornsife - and ALL the other polling - continues to struggle with the question of how to oppose Trump while hiding the absolute insincerity behind any claims to journalist's rights.

28) As you can tell, in short, I'm just NOT buying the numbers presented. I struggled with that. If I don't believe in their numbers, why even share them? As you can see, I chose to share, and here's why. We're hearing America's death march dirge in the Democrats' agenda.

29) In coming weeks and months, it will be my sole objective to Make American Polling Great Again or maybe great for the first time!) . We have the technology. We can make him better than he was before. (That's a reference to Steve Austin, the Bionic Man.)

30) Do we Trumpsters have this election? I say we do. On the other hand, I welcome all Biden supporters to express their belief in him here too. We shall see, soon enough. and then we go right back to work, no matter what...

Thread ends at #30.