We're in the thick of it right now, my friends. Contrary to most other media, I will NOT tell you who the easy winner is. I wish it were Trump. But, not knowing that, easy is not what we'll be studying.
2) As I've explained, I do not trust this data. I believe it is being manipulated. However, if once the dust settles the outcome look like this, I will bow in humility. My call, on the contrary. is that even that this, the most honest poll at Dornsife, is still being manipulated.
3) Out of an abundance of discipline, pretending this data were true, here's where we go. This is the updated entire campaign season Dornsife data, marked up by me. On this scale, the cear outlines of battle are best suited to this data.
4) As we'll discuss again, this data is almost too good looking. This is too much how I see the current conditions for me to simply accept and be happy.
5) What I fear should be obvious. Confirmation bias is its name, but there's the gigantic risk of a rigged system obliterating the truth altogether. Still this data really does look right to me. And this chart shows even more so why.
6) My main fear is that by showing this data, as I am, the sadly crooked Dornsife people know how to manipulate their sample up for Biden, down for Trump. The industry is that far gone down the tank.
7) As I've stated before, this is by far my favorite chart this year. Sadly, it has a new element, and a strong one at that. 5 tests makes a strong line. A sadly strong line.
8) If I were opposed to Trump, corrupt, and had my hands on the data to control it, this new resistance line is where i'd played my cheating hand. That is, stretched forward the coming few days, it's NOT the kind of resistance that wins.
9) This chart gives the lie to my paranoia above.
10) My theory is this. With their control over the data, Dornsife has allowed this solitary chart to show an upcoming Trump victory due to their raw and rampart fear ot it.
11) The troubling thing in the chart above is its new, lowered resistance line. If that line holds, we lose. If this data were honest, I'd likely be calling for Biden right now on the basis of that new lowered resistance line. Rising resistance is good. Lowering bad.
12) It is one of the great targets over which the left has succeeded in dropping their destructive ordinance. There are no polls we can believe in right now. Polling has long been tilted toward the left. It has not been, until 2016, so in the tank as to lose all its integrity.
13) In all this the truth takes a huge body blow. I love to chart and analyze my data. When I suspect the data of manipulation, I grow less happy with each chart I draw.
14) Irritation sufficiently suppressed, two things.
1) I have no idea how these millions of early voters' ballots are being counted, do you? If they're being counted well, then why don't we see more about their outcomes so far?
15) Second point is this:
2) Just do NOT believe anything. Organize all the honest votes you can and let's get this done'1 We're getting some early, but inconclusive signs from Dornsife and other pollsters also. I'll run with that for today!
Thread ends at #15.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
A big day of charts. My hope is to go 1 or 2, and hopefully no more (unless necessary) comments per chart. We dive in right now, with the DJIA first, Dornsife second. This is the 40-year chart.
2) What you see are 2 simple support lines. We don't have time to correlate the lines to their presidents, but a nod must be given to Obama, as his support and Trump's are a single line. I hate saying it, but my charts simply do not lie. Support is support, and there you see it.
3) The thing is, and we'll see this soon, Trump's support would NOT be on a line with Obama's if it weren't for the China Virus. But more on that to come, below...
@realDonaldTrump has taken the art of Self-Promotion, as it were, from water mills to cold fusion (stars run on cold fusion). In this thread, I must emulate him to the degree I'm able.
2) On that note, yesterday's thread, retweeted above, is one you'll want to read. You'll want to read it from start to finish. Well, I didn't really finish it. I got interrupted by events in the real world. But, the stuff that's there is part of today's story. Please do read it.
3) Below, we will turn to today's chart work. It is very interesting. But right now, I have to cut to the chase on the self-promotion thing. Let's talk about this. In today's world, there is a GREAT CHARGE AGAINST self-promotion. Today's most detested value is egotism.
Are you a stickler for punctuality? I sure am. I make phone calls to the minute of the appointment. I show up for Zoom minutes a minute or two early. Face to face? Anything passed 15 minutes early is late. How about you?
2) I'd show the picture but if you're awake, you can go check yourself. Dornsife is over 2 hours late. In fact, in these early morning meanderings of mine, I don't remember the last time they published on time. For shame. And I really mean that.
3) For shame. When do you hear that phrase anymore? For victimhood is more likely. Since being punctual might put stress or pressure on someone, we must create a safe place for tardiness. Slack. We must not judge.
Not me. I am a fierce judge and trust my inner laws.
Okay, okay, there's no way that last night's debate factors into today's charts, yes? Still, get ready to have some fun. And get ready for a ton of new charts! Here's the simple data.
2) Diving right in, here's our first chart of both parties. You'll just have to forgive me in advance for bragging rights. These two lines, Biden's Resistance and Trump's Support were drawn many weeks ago, and here they're still holding. Admit it. Impressive.
3) It may not look like it on the chart, but today's data is, in technical fact, the 7th crossover between the two campaigns. Everything may change again tomorrow, and if so, that'll be the 8th. But that's not my prediction. Here's my call. Crime pays, until it costs.
Interesting. Very Interesting. A Big Day of Chart Updates.
I gotta say, I'm thinking some executives over at Dornsife are smacking their foreheads over the decision to include all these new charts! Here's today's data.
2) As I promised, I have been keeping up with the data daily, but only report on interesting new developments. Well, I saw yesterday that we were heading into interesting territory and yep, sure enough, today did not disappoint! Wait for it...
3) Nodding my head with analytical pride, just look at this chart. And, we have some doozies to come! This is the best.
Don't you just LOVE it when a good theory proves right? Wow, what a rush. Look at this, and tell me if you follow, will you?
Yesterday's work seems to have garnered a fair amount of interest. Just using Twitter's numbers, it did well, relative to my typical reach. I am honored and grateful.
2) Yet, as I wrote it, and in the questions that thoughtful readers gave me after, I realized I'd left some important gaps uncovered. My hope, today, is to fill those gaps. I hope I can get this done in just today's thread, so 2 and done!
3) Let's begin with a little clarification of credit. First, I tagged and thanked @tamaraleighllc, but failed to say why! The reason is, she both introduced me to @Johnheretohelp and forwarded the thread he gave us about China. Thanks again, Gal. You're the best!