One key to the politics of the 2020s may be the interactive effect as two parties diverge across the fault line of welcome or resisting the changes remaking America.
It’s not hard to imagine that by 2024, Dems will be led by presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who is of Jamaican /Indian descent; vice-presidential nominee Pete Buttigieg, an openly gay man; House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, who would be the first Black person to hold that post.
Much like Obama did in 2008, such a roster would symbolize a changing America in a way that inspires the coalition of transformation—but terrifies many in the coalition of restoration.
“It would touch on everything that a lot of Trump supporters were reacting to when they supported him in 2016—this sense of feeling threatened by the [challenge] to white supremacy in the U.S,” says @b_schaffner
The 1850s scenario is that the Republican coalition remains centered on culturally conservative white Americans who grow more embittered and radical as evidence mounts that they cannot stop the diverse emerging majority from instituting its agenda.
That's why I say, "A Republican Party deepening its reliance on the most racially resentful white voters, as Democrats more thoroughly represent the nation’s accelerating diversity, could test the bonds of the union to the greatest extent since the Civil War." (end)
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The bottom line on 2020: the emerging America-the places & people most comfortable w/how the country is changing demographically culturally economically-appear poised to reclaim control over the country's direction after a massive mobilization. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
That's reflected in the widening Trump deficits w/college + whites & young people, continuing towering deficits w/women of color (even if he gains somewhat w/men) & likelihood he will lose the 100 largest metros by even more than his 15m deficit in 2016.
Trump still has a slim path of massive non-col & non-urban White turnout in key states, but, win or lose, he's further exiling GOP from the places defining 21st century America: it's highly possible that the counties he wins will account for only ~30% (or less) of GDP.
Trump's belligerent & dangerous behavior obscured how poorly Biden performed for much of #2020debate. On health care he totally misrepresented his own position-making it sound worse than it is. His lead on health fell dramatically in @StanGreenberg focus groups of debate watchers
Sure it was tough w/Trump hectoring, but Biden not only failed to explain his plans to build on #ACA but said his public option is "only for those people who are so poor they qualify for Medicaid they can get that free in most States." No it's not. It's available for everyone
including those who pay too much for employer provided care. His website: "Whether you’re covered through your employer, buying your insurance on your own, or going without coverage altogether, the Biden Plan will give you the choice to purchase a public health insurance option"
These detailed NYT/Siena polls show some cracks for Biden over Trump's "order" offensive. But mostly they underscore why this isn't 1968: Most col+ whites-& even many non-col whites-see an underlying problem w/racism in policing & believe Trump makes situation worse, not better
In the WI poll, 51-42 majority still view #BlackLivesMatter favorably, including 64% of col+ whites & 40% of non-col. Among the WI col+ whites, 61% say Biden would do better at handling protests; 67% say he'd do better on race relations
In the MN poll, some worrisome signs for Biden: many believe he supports cutting police $ & just 1/5 support that. But 54% (including 61% col+ whites, 45% non-col) say Trump encourages violence; 52-41 say racism in policing bigger problem than riots (including 62% col+ whites)