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2 Nov, 6 tweets, 3 min read
North Carolina Early Vote (EV) - Full Analysis of Early Vote

THREAD 1/N

Methodology
* Take all EV per county through 10/30
* Multiply 2016 T or C %

Estimated EV estimate
* Trump 51.4 to Biden 48.6%
* Trump is up 132K votes
* Targetearly.Targetsmart.com = B 47.2% to T 46.2%

1/n Image
2/n
* 99.54% of the turnout vs. 2016
* Dark Red = Counties Trump win > 10%+ in 2016
* Pink = Trump win 0% < > 10%
* Blue = Clinton win any margin

Next we look at
* Sorted by most EV % over 2016, most raw 2020 EV total
* 2016 Clinton, Trump, Battleground Counties

2/n
3/n
If you sort the table by Biggest % increase over 2016 vote, the Top 38 counties shown are:

9 Clinton Counties
2 Battleground counties
27 Trump Counties

Biden with a small leads in estimated EV 1,566,018 to 1,507,529. 59K lead

3/n Image
4/n
2016 Battleground counties (T win < 10%) (Pink) are running 94% of 2016 raw vote.

* 10 Total Counties
* 93.95% of the vote in vs 2016
* I'm estimating T+12K 149,049 to 137,394
* This group has the lowest 2020 EV vs 2016 total vote. Likely significant ED vote left.

4/n
5/n
2016 Clinton Counties are running 102% of 2016 Raw vote. Highest of the 3 groups

* 24 Total Counties
* I'm estimating B + 557K
* Biden 1,400,904 to Trump 843,375
* A lot of vote in already at 102% of 2016.

5/n Image
6/end

2016 Trump counties running 97.8% of 2016.

* 66 counties Trump > 10% in 2016
* I'm estimating T + 678K
* Trump 1,339,356 Biden 661,028
* Possibly more potential for ED voting in these counties...

PREDICTION? Trump +3

6/end Image

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
4 Nov
As someone who has been trying in my own way to push back the darkness in regards to how our media and public health officials have used a pandemic to seize power and control...

What I witnessed last night in regards to our election was openly and brazenly evil

1/n
While I am not shocked, I am discouraged that it appears the deep state, media and public officials will disregard any sense of decency, in any domain, to win power and control over all of our lives.

The entire night was example after example, and its continued overnight

2/n
The media refusing to call any state for Trump unless it was "100% sure," while calling any state for Biden the second the polls closed. No attempt to avoid the appearance of impropriety. VA, AZ called early, while every Trump battleground called super late or not at all.

3/n
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
31 Oct
Texas Early Vote (EV) - Full Analysis of Early Vote

THREAD 1/N

Methodology
* Take all EV per county through 10/30
* Multiply 2016 T or C %

Estimated EV estimate
* Trump 51.7% to Biden 43.9%
* Trump is up 755K votes
* Targetearly.Targetsmart.com = 51.3% to 38.9%

1/n
2/n
* 108.28% of the turnout vs. 2016
* Dark Red = Counties Trump win > 20%+ in 2016
* Pink = Trump win 0% < > 20%
* Blue = Clinton win any margin

Next we look at
* Sorted by most EV % over 2016, most raw 2020 EV total
* 2016 Clinton, Trump, Battleground Counties

2/n
3/n
If you sort the table by Biggest % increase over 2016 vote, the Top 38 counties shown are:

8 Clinton Counties
4 Battleground counties
26 Trump Counties

Trump leads in estimated EV 3,010,137 to 2,886,586. 124K lead

3/n
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
14 Oct
Scott Atlas: Prolonged lockdowns a Complete Disaster

* Working class & low income people destroyed
* 46% of cancers not diagnosed
* 50% chemo appts missed
* 50% missed immunizations
* 200K missed cases of abuse
* 25% of young people considering suicide

a.msn.com/05/en-us/BB19Z…
Found a better link
Here's a link that is working since MSN videos aren't playing right now.

Read 5 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Oct
10/12 Texas Border Update - THREAD

* Counties that border Mexico, 9% of the population, accounted for almost 27% of TX fatalities between Jun & now
* 7 of Top 23 counties in fatalities are border counties (Orange)
* 5 of Top 12
* Border Deaths per million - crazy high

1/n
Here is the breakdown for all the Texas Border counties. At the bottom you'll notice that the Border accounts for 9.01% of Texas' population. Yet for the entire pandemic, the border accounts for 23.41% of the fatalities. This is up half a point from my last report in Sept

2/n
For the Entire Pandemic, you can see on this chart that fatalities on the border were running right at population through mid June. July saw a surge that raised the proportion to 24% by the end of August, and has remained there, decreasing slightly in recent weeks

3/n
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
12 Oct
10/11 TX C-19 Hospital Census: Capacity

* Census - 3622 - up 430 beds Week over Week (WoW)
* % Beds used by C19 - 5.56%
* ICU C19 - 1142, up 71 beds WoW
* Hospital bed capacity - record 65,151
* C19 % beds used (orange) diverging from C19 census (blue)

1/n
#RationalGround Image
TX Hospital Bed Capacity - Up Bigly

* 10/11 Bed Capacity - 65,151 (Image 1)
* Highest since June 5
* Up 7,084 beds from last week
* Meanwhile free beds are down 41 WoW (Image 2), meaning 7K more patients than last week.
* Delayed Care / Elective surgery increasing rapidly

2/n ImageImage
10/11 ICU vs General Bed Census

ICU still basically flat with a small rise the past 3 days. Meanwhile General census is up over 300 in the past 8 days alone.

With more electives and delayed care being admitted, all being PCR tested = rise in census numbers.

3/n Image
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
12 Oct
TX Fatalities by Date of Death vs Hospitalizations- 10/11

* Fatalities peak on 7/23
* Hospital census has bumped up right along with an increase in Hospital capacity
* 532 Fatalities reported the past 7 days, a rise of 5.7% over last week's 502

THREAD 1/n Image
I broke down the Hospital situation on Saturday morning and will be updating again today. Below. Hospitals appear to be returning to a more "normal" state. Bed inventory has risen quickly. Delayed care/ elective surgery patients on the increase.

2/n
10/11 - DOD report for the past 7 days

* 532 Fatalities reported, up from 503 last week
* 81 Dates revised
* 130 from Sept 15 and older
* 50 August fatalities
* 21 July fatalities

Better but still quite a bit of Death Cert matching going back 2 and 3 months.

3/n ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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