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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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2 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Right then. A little thread about 'focused protection'.

Focused protection appears to be the new 'herd immunity', rebranded to sound nice and comforting.

Problem is, it's anything but.

Here's some background to where the term came from.
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
We *already* have 150 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s. That's hundreds of deaths in the coming weeks.

There were fewer than 10 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s in August. So that's a 16-fold increase, which works out as doubling every 2 weeks.
There's also some discussion about the 82-year-old - the median age for people dying from Covid.

Read this thread - those 82-year-olds can be expected to reach 90 if they don't catch Covid.

Here is my interview with @SkyNews today where I discuss (amongst other things) 'focused protection' (at 3 minutes in)

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
4 Nov
A thread on the modelling and analysis used to suggest scenarios for what *could* happen if we do nothing. And commentary on this slide. Image
The slides that were presented in the Number 10 press conference on 31 October are here:
gov.uk/government/pub…
Firstly, commentary on the modelling. Modelling for Covid-19 is performed by a number of academic groups around the country. They use different modelling techniques. Some of these models are used to come up with the R value.
Read 26 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
28 Oct
Let's take a little review of where we are with UK Covid restrictions.

It wasn't meant to be like this.

A Thread.

With apologies to Nandos.
It wasn't meant to be like this. Remember the Alert Levels (the 'Nandos chart')? The whole idea of that was to set some sort of policy - a roadmap if you will - of how we get out of a national lockdown.

Introducing... Covid Alert Levels. 12 May

gov.uk/government/pub…
Remember this? The gentle ski slope of calm.

'R less than 1 caseload decreasing'

Ah, simpler times.
Read 18 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
28 Oct
As a society, we are so divorced from the mechanisms of death that we are forgetting that the people dying of Covid are parents, siblings, grandparents. It is all too easy too look at statistics and be removed from the real lives that are cut short from this dreadful disease
A journalist has just deleted their tweet saying that the average age of those dying from Covid is 82, as if in some way that reduces the tragedy of that individual death.
And to refute the belief that it's 'only' old people - these are the people dying from Covid in the second wave (from @PHE_uk).

Over 1,000 70-somethings
Hundreds of 50-60 year olds and 60-70 year olds

Scores of 40-somethings
Read 6 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
27 Oct
It was great to speak to @JuliaHB1 on @talkRADIO this morning. Here's a clip of the interview.



And a thread on what I was saying in that interview.
Is Test and Trace failing? Yes. Here's a thread I wrote a few weeks ago

Is the virus 'out of control'? Yes.

Read 8 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
24 Oct
Commentary on the @thesundaytimes story 'How the Eldery Paid the Price of Protecting the NHS from COVID-19'.

A Thread.

thetimes.co.uk/article/reveal…
The Sunday Times cover the first wave of the virius, up to May 2020. But the question remains - could it happen again? And what is the Government doing to prevent this?

Let's look at the number of cases in the over-80s
Eight weeks ago, there were 9 Covid cases per 100,000 over 80s.

Last week, there were *114*
Read 13 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
22 Oct
Matt Hancock told the Commons today, placing Stoke, Coventry & Slough into Tier 2

"In all those areas, there are more than 100 positive cases per 100,000 people, cases are doubling approximately every fortnight and we are seeing a concerning increase in cases among the over-60s"
So, it appears that we now appear to have criteria for placing local authorities into Tier 2:
- more than 100 cases per 100,000 people
- cases doubling approximately every fortnight
- concerning increase in cases among the over-60s
100 cases per 100,000 seems arbitrary, especially considering it doubles the previous rate for interventions:
Read 11 tweets

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