Thread by @gtryan

We had another 30k votes counted over the weekend bringing us up to 3,912,819 total votes cast so far in the 2020 election. Hopefully a big backlog of mail ballot clears today, and we can hit an even 4 million going in to election day.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com

And now that we have most of the data, last week some folks sent in questions they'd like to see answered so I wanted to help answer a few of those today.

First up, is a look at the demographic breakdown of early voters compared to 2016. Here's what that looks like.

Outside of the huge leap in overall vote volume, I'd note the drop in vote share among white voters (-4.3%) and the growth in voting among under 40 voters (+2.7%).

Another question was if and how these early voters participated in the June primary election.

As you may remember we had record turnout for the June primary with over 2.3 million total votes cast.

In June Georgia Democrats outran Republicans, 1,234,230 (52.3%) ballots to 1,065,015 (45.1%).

Almost 83% of primary voters have already voted in the 2020 general, and Democrats are actually doing a little bit better.

D - 1,060,112 (54.2%)
R - 849,868 (43.4%)

But we should also point out that nearly half of the people who have voted in the 2020 general election so far did NOT vote in the June primary. So what if we did the same demographic breakdown above for those non-Primary voters?

Here is what that looks like. And even more diverse and younger electorate. In fact, the share of voters under 40 rises to 41.2%, while those over 50 drops to 36.7%.

88% of voters under 30 did not vote in the primary, while only 22% of 65+ voters didn't.

So if this data is predictive, Biden may have a 210,000 vote lead among people who voted in the primary, and the remaining 50% of the early vote electorate would trend MORE FAVORABLE for him.

So let's say 4 million people vote early and Biden ends early voting with a 400,000 vote lead. If we predict the high end of a total electorate, 5.5 million, that would be 1.5 million day of votes.

If Trump is going to make up 400k votes, that would require a 64/36 win on e-day.

The lower that day-of turnout, the higher that number has to get. So unlike previous years in Georgia there's now a strange world where the GOP may need huge day-of turnout to compete in Georgia.

And, just for reference, in 2016 Trump's margins in early-voting and day-of voting were a nearly identical 104,126 (on 2.4M early votes) and 109,323 (on 1.7M day of votes).