So, interesting data point.

The first batch of Houston County mail ballots have reported. The county was 60/38 in 2016 and pretty much in line with that after early in-person and day-of votes were counted this year.

Mail votes so far:
Biden - 2.026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)
There are still ~20k mail ballots to go in Houston County it looks like, but this was a county that was supposed to help protect against the Atlanta surge.

If Biden is actually making up ground here, it’s going to be real trouble for Trump.
To follow up here, and thanks to @JoshCrawfordNE for the tip, a peek at Jeff Davis County (yeahhhh, that one. problematic)

Small county, not impactful overall.

Full county went 81/18 for Trump.

Just released early vote totals were
Trump - 530
Biden - 520
These little counties mail was supposed to help build Trump a little more cushion against the Atlanta votes. It’s not happening.
Good gracious, it sounds like we’re going to have another one of these where I was expecting Trump +2,400 and we’re actually getting Trump +700.

I’ll wait for the SOS website to update in order to confirm, but would knock another 1,700 votes off Biden’s Atlanta math.
Ok, got the raw numbers. Gilmer County, up in Q country.

82/15 Trump county in 2016 just dropped all of their mail.

Trump - 2,148 (62.7%)
Biden - 1,243 (36.3%)

So +900 instead of +2,400 expected.
Houston just reported more mail ballots. Reminder that Houston was 60/38 for Trump in 2016.

Update one was good for Biden, but we knew more would be coming.

Update 1
Biden - 2,026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)

Now
Biden - 5,955 (58.4%)
Trump - 4,121 (40.4%)

WHOA!
Dinner done! It was delicious

Houston update 3, all mail ballots reported

Update 1
Biden - 2,026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)

Update 2
Biden - 5,955 (58.4%)
Trump - 4,121 (40.4%)

Final
Biden - 11,826 (58.4%)
Trump - 8,145 (40.2%)

That’s a bad, bad result for Trump.
The latest update also had a lot of new numbers from outlying counties. These are just the NEW numbers

Forsyth
Biden - 1,574 (58.1%)
Trump - 1,076 (39.7%)

Fayette
Biden - 263 (61.0%)
Trump - 153 (35.5%)

Hall (Trump needed #s here)
Biden - 2,124 (46.4%)
Trump - 2,355 (51.4%)
And our first recent update from the big southern Democratic counties

Chatham
Biden - 7,371 (78.6%)
Trump - 1,939 (20.7%)

Dougherty
Biden - 3,195 (80.6%)
Trump - 759 (19.1%)
Another big round of updates. This is just net new votes.

Fulton
Biden - 13,051 (78.2%)
Trump - 3,423 (20.5%)

Walton (maybe Trump's last gasp, came in 100 below projection)
Biden - 2,262 (41.0%)
Trump - 3,168 (57.4%)

Dekalb
Biden - 2,231 (79.8%)
Trump - 492 (17.6%)
Southern suburbs

Henry
Biden - 1,051 (65.3%)
Trump - 524 (32.5%)

Fayette
Biden - 614 (57.8%)
Trump - 424 (39.9%)

And a surprise update I wasn't expecting!

Lowndes
Biden - 435 (57.8%)
Trump - 288 (38.3%)
Big mail drop! It looks like almost all of Cobb’s mail votes are in now.

New Cobb Votes
Biden - 10,103 (69.6%)
Trump - 3,929 (27.1%)
Some more big counties coming in. Net new votes only.

Fulton
Biden - 5,307 (79.4%)
Trump - 1,285 (19.2%)

Dekalb
Biden - 1,152 (81.5%)
Trump - 227 (16.1%)

Rabun
Biden - 168 (36.0%)
Trump - 295 (63.2%)

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More from @gtryan

5 Nov
Ok, good afternoon everyone!

There have been a chunk of vote updates so far today, so let's go through them in a reasonable sequence.
First, some of the remaining big-sized counties:

Sumter
Biden - 815 (67.9%)
Trump - 372 (31.1%)

I expected a 530ish vote gain for Biden here, so a little underperfoming.

Putnam
Biden - 652 (47.8%)
Trump - 700 (51.3%)

I expected a 300 vote gain for Trump here, so big Biden win
Next, small updates from counties I thought were done! All of these are net wins for Biden that didn't factor into my projections.

Bartow - 129/125 (+4)
Fayette - 154/62 (+92)
Peach - 54/33 (+21)
Taylor - 83/31 (+52)
Read 7 tweets
5 Nov
I’ve watched a lot of early vote numbers come in today, and have been tracking the margins vs what existing vote predicts they’d be vs what the deficit is.

Right now Biden’s down by 38,126. I think he’s got ~44,500 margin in the outstanding votes.

Biden wins GA.
Predicted margins by outstanding (big) county:

Chatham - 8,225
Clayton - 5,207
Dekalb - 5,237
Dougherty - 1,740
Fulton - 20,025
Gwinnett - 2,393
Rockdale - 542
Sumter - 533
(Sumter’s not big, but that margin’s worth noting)
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
Good morning everyone!

As expected we cracked 4 million early votes in the file this morning. We have just over 3.7 million total early votes counted in the Presidential election. So still a little ways to go.
Most of these ballots are in the Democratic strongholds of Fulton and Dekalb, but there are plenty spread around the state as well from D-heavy spots like Clayton and Chatham, to R-heavy counties like Houston.
Trump’s lead is 101,795 at the moment.

A very rough analysis of looking at outstanding ballots by county, and those counties’ voting pattern, and would have Biden netting over 90,000 votes.
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
First round of Fulton early vote numbers

Biden - 58,946 (80.2%)
Trump - 13,913 (18.9%)

2016 was:

Clinton - 191,819 (69.2%)
Trump - 77,341 (27.9%)
Fulton update as some more early votes and a handful of day-of votes come in

Biden - 65,941 (78.4%)
Trump - 17,410 (20.7%)
More Fulton data

Biden - 107,662 (76.7%)
Trump - 31,230 (22.2%)
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
Initial early vote numbers in Cobb:

Biden - 73,526
Trump - 40,951
2016 full early vote in Cobb:

Clinton - 84,596
Trump - 73,550
Cobb Update

Biden - 84,624
Trump - 46,481

That’s more early votes than Clinton got in 2016 in Cobb County, and early in-person doesn’t look like it’s been counted yet.
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
We had another 30k votes counted over the weekend bringing us up to 3,912,819 total votes cast so far in the 2020 election. Hopefully a big backlog of mail ballot clears today, and we can hit an even 4 million going in to election day.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
And now that we have most of the data, last week some folks sent in questions they'd like to see answered so I wanted to help answer a few of those today.
First up, is a look at the demographic breakdown of early voters compared to 2016. Here's what that looks like. Image
Read 12 tweets

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