Thread by @gtryan

So, interesting data point.

The first batch of Houston County mail ballots have reported. The county was 60/38 in 2016 and pretty much in line with that after early in-person and day-of votes were counted this year.

Mail votes so far:
Biden - 2.026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)

There are still ~20k mail ballots to go in Houston County it looks like, but this was a county that was supposed to help protect against the Atlanta surge.

If Biden is actually making up ground here, it’s going to be real trouble for Trump.

To follow up here, and thanks to @JoshCrawfordNE for the tip, a peek at Jeff Davis County (yeahhhh, that one. problematic)

Small county, not impactful overall.

Full county went 81/18 for Trump.

Just released early vote totals were
Trump - 530
Biden - 520

These little counties mail was supposed to help build Trump a little more cushion against the Atlanta votes. It’s not happening.

Good gracious, it sounds like we’re going to have another one of these where I was expecting Trump +2,400 and we’re actually getting Trump +700.

I’ll wait for the SOS website to update in order to confirm, but would knock another 1,700 votes off Biden’s Atlanta math.

Ok, got the raw numbers. Gilmer County, up in Q country.

82/15 Trump county in 2016 just dropped all of their mail.

Trump - 2,148 (62.7%)
Biden - 1,243 (36.3%)

So +900 instead of +2,400 expected.

Houston just reported more mail ballots. Reminder that Houston was 60/38 for Trump in 2016.

Update one was good for Biden, but we knew more would be coming.

Update 1
Biden - 2,026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)

Now
Biden - 5,955 (58.4%)
Trump - 4,121 (40.4%)

WHOA!

Dinner done! It was delicious

Houston update 3, all mail ballots reported

Update 1
Biden - 2,026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)

Update 2
Biden - 5,955 (58.4%)
Trump - 4,121 (40.4%)

Final
Biden - 11,826 (58.4%)
Trump - 8,145 (40.2%)

That’s a bad, bad result for Trump.

The latest update also had a lot of new numbers from outlying counties. These are just the NEW numbers

Forsyth
Biden - 1,574 (58.1%)
Trump - 1,076 (39.7%)

Fayette
Biden - 263 (61.0%)
Trump - 153 (35.5%)

Hall (Trump needed #s here)
Biden - 2,124 (46.4%)
Trump - 2,355 (51.4%)

And our first recent update from the big southern Democratic counties

Chatham
Biden - 7,371 (78.6%)
Trump - 1,939 (20.7%)

Dougherty
Biden - 3,195 (80.6%)
Trump - 759 (19.1%)

Another big round of updates. This is just net new votes.

Fulton
Biden - 13,051 (78.2%)
Trump - 3,423 (20.5%)

Walton (maybe Trump's last gasp, came in 100 below projection)
Biden - 2,262 (41.0%)
Trump - 3,168 (57.4%)

Dekalb
Biden - 2,231 (79.8%)
Trump - 492 (17.6%)

Southern suburbs

Henry
Biden - 1,051 (65.3%)
Trump - 524 (32.5%)

Fayette
Biden - 614 (57.8%)
Trump - 424 (39.9%)

And a surprise update I wasn't expecting!

Lowndes
Biden - 435 (57.8%)
Trump - 288 (38.3%)

Big mail drop! It looks like almost all of Cobb’s mail votes are in now.

New Cobb Votes
Biden - 10,103 (69.6%)
Trump - 3,929 (27.1%)

Some more big counties coming in. Net new votes only.

Fulton
Biden - 5,307 (79.4%)
Trump - 1,285 (19.2%)

Dekalb
Biden - 1,152 (81.5%)
Trump - 227 (16.1%)

Rabun
Biden - 168 (36.0%)
Trump - 295 (63.2%)