I’ve watched a lot of early vote numbers come in today, and have been tracking the margins vs what existing vote predicts they’d be vs what the deficit is.
Right now Biden’s down by 38,126. I think he’s got ~44,500 margin in the outstanding votes.
Biden wins GA.
Right now Biden’s down by 38,126. I think he’s got ~44,500 margin in the outstanding votes.
Biden wins GA.
Predicted margins by outstanding (big) county:
Chatham - 8,225
Clayton - 5,207
Dekalb - 5,237
Dougherty - 1,740
Fulton - 20,025
Gwinnett - 2,393
Rockdale - 542
Sumter - 533
Chatham - 8,225
Clayton - 5,207
Dekalb - 5,237
Dougherty - 1,740
Fulton - 20,025
Gwinnett - 2,393
Rockdale - 542
Sumter - 533
(Sumter’s not big, but that margin’s worth noting)
A fair question is "why do you think a 6,400 vote margin is safe enough to say this?"
When I started tracking the data this morning it was a 125k deficit and I saw Biden making up 110k votes. He's over-performed the estimates all day, won rural counties, and now Atlanta is left.
When I started tracking the data this morning it was a 125k deficit and I saw Biden making up 110k votes. He's over-performed the estimates all day, won rural counties, and now Atlanta is left.
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