The Scottish National Party’s record in government is a litany of failures. Yet it continues to ride high on back of nationalist sentiment as it focuses exclusively on ideology and not competence.

My piece in @ForeignPolicy

foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/02/vot….

Short thread 1/12
With Scottish Parliament elections next year, the #SNP will focus exclusively on separating Scotland from the UK and strive to keep all emphasis off its repeated scandals and poor record.

EG from this year... 2/12
1. COVID. Earlier this yr, SNP decided to free up hospital beds by discharging 3599 elderly patients after testing only 650. Even though 78 tested +ve, ALL were sent to care homes. Resulting in over 2000 deaths - half of all deaths in Scotland. 3/12
2. EXAMS FIASCO: Due to lockdown, SNP decided to grade pupils based on algorithm on history and prestige of the school rather than their hard work. So poorer students had their grades changed around eight per cent more often than those from the richest sections of Scotland. 4/12
3. FERRY CONTRACT DISASTER. Despite repeated warnings, SNP fumbled the nationalization of a near-defunct ferry company with poorly constructed contracts leading tax payers with a bill of over 100 million (and no ferries). 5/12
4. MACKAY COVERUP: When SNP learnt Finance Minister Derek Mackay had messaged a 16 yr old school boy 270 times, rather than act decisively and ask him to resign, it tried to cover it up by pressurizing The Sun not to publish allegations. 6/12
5. SALMOND AFFAIR: SNP leadership have continuously failed to cooperate with the Parliamentary enquiry into allegations that Sturgeon and her husband (SNP CEO) were unduly involved in the investigation and prosecution of former party leader Alex Salmond for sex offenses. 7/12
Most other parties in a democracy would be battered by this record of failure, and yet the SNP continues to enjoy popularity margins that defy political gravity.

How does the SNP manage this?

By focusing exclusively on separatist ideology.

8/12
With politics in 1990s & 2000s, ideologies were barely noticeable. Parties were criticised for lack of differences between them: "they're all the same".

So the principal criterion for political success was “competence.” And incompetence was punished swiftly & severely.

9/12
If a minister did something particularly stupid, they were gone. If their party leadership stood by them, the whole party would be punished instead.

Today we have overcorrected to the point where competence plays virtually no part in the democratic conversation.
10/12
So Sturgeon can brush off every one of these scandals almost on autopilot: "We recognize that errors have been made. We will investigate. We will get back to you with our findings at some point."

They never do, and the electorate never follows up. 11/12
But none of this is necessary. We must demand basic competence from the SNP, even if you agree ideologically. A chastened SNP would deliver a better country. But for that to happen, it needs to be admonished at the ballot box, not to throw around the same old excuses. 12/12

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More from @AzeemIbrahim

23 Jun
Almost everyone expected #China to reach econ and military superpower status within our lifetime.

But this is now in serious question due to President Xi’s misjudgement and mismanagement.

My piece in the @TheNatlInterest

Short thread 1/10

nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-…
Unlike previous CCP leaders, President Xi views Chinese history and future trajectory from a Han-nationalist perspective. Success is “payback” for two centuries of “humiliation”. China must not just win the global geo-political game but must “assert” itself. 2/10
EG:
1. Belt-and-Road initiative whereby China would build the trade infrastructure to serve the next century is degenerated into a crude mechanism of “debt diplomacy” complete with demands for territorial concessions. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
9 May
Taiwan is one of the world's wealthiest democracies. With as assertive Beijing crushing dissent in #HongKong, it is now time for the US to unilaterally recognise #Taiwan as an independent country.

My piece in the @TheNatlInterest

nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/unit…

Short thread 1/7
When #Covid19 first emerged Beijing treated it as a public relations issue. The first country to actually face the facts and implement the most effective response to the virus was Taiwan. With 24 million people, Taiwan registered only 440 infections and 6 deaths!!!
2/7
How did they achieve such astonishing success? Two key reasons:
1) Experience of SARS meant they had know-how & built infrastructure to cope with next pandemic.
2) Taiwan faces constant pressure from CCP and knows to instinctively distrust narratives coming out of Beijing. 3/7
Read 8 tweets
23 Mar
China is expected to take advantage of global chaos from Covid19 by squeezing vulnerable countries. US can thus regain moral leadership by leading a program of international debt relief & reconstruction.

My piece in @ForeignPolicy

foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/23/chi…

Short thread: 1/10
China’s growing sphere of influence uses “debt-trap diplomacy” as a model of imperial control. Countries like Sri Lanka lost sovereign control of key national assets like the Hambantota port when they could not service Beijing’s debt. 2/10
Poor countries with small, undiversified, fragile economies can be utterly broken by the global economic shock. That will leave them at the mercy of Beijing. Countries like Djibouti, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Pakistan, and Montenegro are all at risk. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
12 Feb
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon dominates the political landscape in Scotland. If she gets #IndyRef2 and loses, the SNP will be sunk & Sturgeon will have to resign.

So why does she & SNP keep pushing for it?

My piece in @Foreignpolicy

foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/11/sco…

Short thread 1/18
The rise of SNP has been one of the most significant political achievements for any modern British political party. In a system hostile to single-issue politics, the SNP managed to get their cause to the forefront of national politics. 2/18
The 2014 Scottish independence referendum was supposed to be a “once in a generation event” so why are the Scottish National Party pushing for another?

Three principal reasons:

3/18
Read 18 tweets
30 Nov 19
#LondonBridge debates over prison sentences, parole, are a distraction. Real issue is our laws are unable to cater to new terrorist threat. These are not normal criminals they are traitors and we need new treason laws.

My piece in the @Telegraph 1/8

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/0…
MI5 has identified 23K extremists in UK. 3K "persons of interest" involved in some 500 potential terror plots. It takes 20-25 security personal to monitor ONE individual so max they can subject to 24hr watch at any one time is 50!!! (according to MI5). 2/8
Clearly, this situation is not sustainable and many will slip through the cracks. New laws therefore required to recognise this new and extraordinary security challenge. Traditional offences which Britain charges potential terrorists with are not enough. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
18 Nov 19
The Palestinian cause is being damaged by Corbyn and the hard-left as it is being used as a cover for anti-semitism.

My piece in @ForeignPolicy

foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/18/cor…

Short thread: 1/16
87% Jews believe Corbyn is anti-semitic. His supporters say it is smears for standing up for Palestinians. Continuing Palestinians suffering under occupation raises natural sympathy. But many left-wing Jews also share this justified anger at right-wing nationalist policies. 2/16
Yet some of the hard-left’s criticism is not driven by humanitarian concerns, but simply anti-Semitic attitudes. Many see Israel as a classic imperialist state, an agent of the US imposed on region by outside powers. Israel is painted as a unique and irredeemable monster. 3/16
Read 16 tweets

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