Thread by @AzeemIbrahim

Almost everyone expected #China to reach econ and military superpower status within our lifetime.

But this is now in serious question due to President Xi’s misjudgement and mismanagement.

My piece in the @TheNatlInterest

Short thread 1/10

nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-…

Unlike previous CCP leaders, President Xi views Chinese history and future trajectory from a Han-nationalist perspective. Success is “payback” for two centuries of “humiliation”. China must not just win the global geo-political game but must “assert” itself. 2/10

EG:
1. Belt-and-Road initiative whereby China would build the trade infrastructure to serve the next century is degenerated into a crude mechanism of “debt diplomacy” complete with demands for territorial concessions. 3/10

2. Over 1 million #Uyghur citizens imprisoned in brainwashing concentration camps in #Xinjiang for the crime of not being Han.

3. #HongKong is crushed for clinging on to the idea of “two systems”.

4. Taiwan is threatened with invasion for the temerity of being Taiwan. 4/10

5. Relentless censorship imposed on any companies operating in China, including the largest Western multinationals.

6. Forceful military expansion in the South China Sea.

These are just some examples of #Xi’s “assertiveness” 5/10

Then we had #Covid where Xi’s govn attempted to cover up the emergence of the virus in the early weeks of its spread, being more concerned with optics and PR than with the health of their citizens. 6/10

In 2013, before Xi, everyone accepted China's inevitable rise with nations (inc US & Eur) trying to benefit by exporting manufacturing jobs and inviting investment. Today almost everyone is extremely anxious about—and hostile to—further Chinese intrusion and “assertiveness.” 7/10

Much of this is due to Xi himself through “Xi Jinping thought” which takes an approach of “might makes right” and “the strong do as they please, the weak suffer as they must” to international issues without any diplomatic sensitivity or foresight. 8/10

Will this derail the rise of China to global prominence this century? Too early to say but certainly the rest of the world is certainly not looking forward to it any more. All because of the misjudgement and mismanagement of Xi. 9/10

Xi will likely be remembered as a Kaiser Wilhelm II, who instead of waiting patiently for the inevitable triumph of his country, felt compelled to aggressively push that triumph down everybody else’s throat, and in the process brought ruin to his country. 10/10