Thread by @AzeemIbrahim

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon dominates the political landscape in Scotland. If she gets #IndyRef2 and loses, the SNP will be sunk & Sturgeon will have to resign.

So why does she & SNP keep pushing for it?

My piece in @Foreignpolicy

foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/11/sco…

Short thread 1/18

The rise of SNP has been one of the most significant political achievements for any modern British political party. In a system hostile to single-issue politics, the SNP managed to get their cause to the forefront of national politics. 2/18

The 2014 Scottish independence referendum was supposed to be a “once in a generation event” so why are the Scottish National Party pushing for another?

Three principal reasons:

3/18

1. Independence is the raison d’etre for the SNP. If the SNP stops pushing, there is a real danger that the nationalist vote will splinter and end up with the kind of nationalist/unionist party political hotchpotch that is paralysing devolved govn in Northern Ireland.

4/18

2. Alex Salmond, who built the party into a political force, will be standing trial for alleged sex offences in March. Some expect this to be the most significant trial in Scotland since Lockerbie. And with 300 police officers investigating, also one of the biggest. 5/18

It's therefore opportune that Brexit has put a second indyref firmly on the agenda.

Sturgeon must keep SNP faithful looking past the scandal with promise of independence in the future. She must “keep their eyes on the prize” for the following months.
6/18

3. But most importantly. Sturgeon MUST distract from the SNP's failure in EVERY devolved area. After being in power for 13 years voters are beginning to realize that the SNP are now the establishment party and have failed to deliver on any of their promises:

EG:

7/18

a) EDUCATION: Scotland now has worst ever results for science and maths in global PISA comparison of education. Scotland was historically ahead of England but SNP have reversed this despite setting itself up as champions of education in contrast to “Tories in Westminster". 8/18

b) JUSTICE: Scottish prisons are on the "brink of a safety crisis” according to the Auditor General, due to funding cuts and chronic overcrowding. SNP have cut funding by 12.5% since 2015 with Scottish prison population now the highest in Europe. 9/18

c) HEALTH: SNP missed 6 out 8 of heath targets with key outcomes now behind England. SNP ignored key warnings on Glasgow's super hospital which led to patient deaths from infected water. The 2018 Health and Safety Executive Papers demanded urgent action to protect patients. 10/18

d) DRUG DEATHS: Scotland now has highest drug deaths in Europe. 1,187 people died from drugs last year, triple that of England and Wales, and even higher even than the US - which is in the grip of an opioid crisis. 11/18

e) LOCAL COUNCILS: Real-term cut in funding of 7.6% since 2013/14 has necessitated deep cuts in financial reserves, and more borrowing by councils despite increases in the block grant from the UK. 23 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities are now drawing from their reserves. 12/18

e. CRIME: Under the SNP crime has increased, esp sexual and violent crimes (10% increase). After SNP shut down 125 police stations the Scottish Police Federation said that the SNP has “given up on policing” and committed “an act of policing vandalism” 13/18

The SNP argue that Scot Govn is fiscally constrained by Westminster. But public spending per capita remains significantly higher in Scotland than the rest of the UK. Every Scot gets 116 percent of the UK’s average spending per capita, compared to 97 percent in England. 14/18

SNP problem is NOT financial. They have more money than most parts of UK. Problem is poor management & misuse of power. From Edinburgh tram scandal (10x original budget), to the latest ferry scandal (yrs late double budget), there has been a devastating pattern emerging: 15/18

The SNP, as a government, systematically prioritises perceived party “electoral” marketing value of projects and policies over their economic and social value, and neglects the operational and implementation challenges leading to eye-watering waste of public money. 16/18

And to top it all off, when all is said and done, no individual minister, or indeed the party as a whole, is ever held accountable for any of it – because the over-riding push for independence keeps the voters together and allows scandals to be nearly ignored. 17/18

So, After 13 yrs SNP’s record is, one of positive messaging, and mediocre to dismal implementation. That is why they beat the drums of independence. If the SNP does not keep dangling the promise of an Ind Scotland in front of the faithful, it has nothing else to stand on. 18/18