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FiveThirtyEight

4 Nov, 9 tweets, 4 min read

Where the race stands in key battleground states: 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Nevada: it’s currently neck-and-neck. Both Biden and Trump are sitting at 49% of the vote, with 86% of the expected vote reporting, according to ABC News. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

NC: Trump is at 50% compared with 49% for Biden, with around 95 percent of North Carolina’s vote in, according to ABC News projections. Waiting for votes from Wake and Mecklenburg Counties. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Maine: Biden leads by about 13 points, with 72% of the expected vote reported so far, according to ABC News. It appears that more of the outstanding vote comes from the more rural northern parts of the state. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Arizona: Biden has a 5-point lead statewide, with 82% of the expected vote reported, according to ABC News. Arizona is expected to finish counting its ballots today. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Wisconsin: This race is still very, very tight. Biden and Trump are both at 49%, with only about 20,000 votes separating them, and 97% of the votes have now been counted, according to ABC News. It’s all coming down to Green Bay and Kenosha. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Michigan: With 86% of the expected vote reporting in Michigan, Trump has only a slight edge over Biden, 49.4% to 48.9%, according to ABC News. Only 64% of the vote reported from Wayne Country, where Biden leads. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Georgia: Trump is ahead by 2.16 percentage points, according to ABC News. The question, of course, is where the outstanding votes are located — and it’s coming down to counties surrounding Atlanta, which is good news for Biden. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

Pennsylvania: With roughly 75% of the vote in, Trump is ahead by 11 percentage points, according to ABC News. The outstanding vote is likely to be primarily mail votes, and so Biden-leaning. 53eig.ht/3mPcDwx

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FiveThirtyEight

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3 Nov

Democrats have a 3-in-4 chance of flipping the Senate, according to our final forecast. 53eig.ht/361eHL5

A ton of seats in the Senate are in play, making a wide range of outcomes plausible.

In 80% of our model’s simulations, Democrats wind up with anywhere between 48 and 55 seats. 53eig.ht/361eHL5

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3 Nov

Biden’s favored in our final presidential forecast, but it’s a fine line between a landslide and a nail-biter. 53eig.ht/3jTt614

*There hasn’t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours.

Most of the late polling either came in close to previous polling averages, or came from fairly random pollsters.

53eig.ht/3jTt614

Note: Biden’s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton’s at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. 53eig.ht/3jTt614

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Ruth Bader Ginsburg reshaped jurisprudence in the U.S., particularly as an advocate for women’s rights.

She was a cultural and political icon.

Her death, and the fight to fill her seat, will undoubtedly shake an already strained 2020.

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Now, Republicans will have to decide whether they will break from their “no election year confirmations” stance from 2016. 53eig.ht/33GdyHP

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Why we’re planning for an Election Day that could last months --> 53eig.ht/2Cr7c5w

Yes, it's true, the 2020 election is shaping up to be a whole “election month” — or even election months. 53eig.ht/2Cr7c5w

Because of the coronavirus, many voters will probably make their decisions and cast their ballots over the course of October.

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12 Aug

Some notes about the 2020 forecast: Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, as opposed to hard-and-fast binary predictions about who will win or lose. It estimates the chances of each candidate winning, and will update continuously until Election Day. 53eig.ht/3amzhaD

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.

These maps are a representative sample of how things might shake out on Election Day. 53eig.ht/2020

"Election Day." 53eig.ht/2DNxMq5

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12 Aug

If the election were held today, Biden might win in a landslide. BUT the election is not today. It’s August. We have debates and conventions. There's a pandemic, which is also causing a volatile economy. So, basically, it's way too soon to count Trump out. 53eig.ht/3gPDkPp

The FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast has Trump with a 29 in 100 chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. 53eig.ht/2PLWYja

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