Today #Ethiopia is entering civil war territory as federal troops deploy to take on #Tigray (TPLF) forces after what Addis said was an attack by the northern region against a federal military base. This is a disaster for the region, for Africa, for the world. Thread -->
Many Ethiopians on all sides hoped it would never get to this, although it has been like watching a train crash in slow motion for months. At each step of the way it has been possible for each side to de-escalate but everyone has chosen to press ahead with hardline positions.
Great hopes awaited Ethiopia when prime minister #AbiyAhmed took office in 2018. He took credit for continuing the policy of releasing political prisoners, and forging a peace deal with #Eritrea, winning the #NobelPeacePrize @NobelPrize as a result.
But even as political freedoms were granted, there did not seem to be a strategy to manage rowdy demands of a multi-ethnic federation, whose regions have been at odds with each other, or the federal government, or both. War with the TPLF is now part of a multidimensional crisis.
Oromia has an armed rebellion ongoing. Amhara region has been in turmoil since June 2019 when its regional leader was gunned down. Hardliners there have also been itching for a fight with Tigray over disputed lands. Many of the Southern Nations are also stirring for autonomy.
Amid these centrifugal forces, Abiy took a big gamble by trying to absorb the ruling coalition, made up of parties from all these regions, into a single party under his control. All joined, except the TPLF, which once was at the helm of that ruling coalition and now embittered.
The #COVID19 pandemic made things more complicated, leading to Ethiopia postponing elections, and foisting something of a constitutional crisis on the country. Tigray refused to go along with this, and held its own elections. Then came fiscal sanctions from Addis. And now war.
What was needed for some time was a national dialogue to stop this critical country in the Horn of Africa unraveling. Instead what we have seen is a Nobel Prize winner continuing to take hardline positions with the TPLF, instead of using his position of leadership to de-escalate.
Moreover we have recently seen a return to the repressive practices which Ethiopia was supposed to have abandoned under Abiy. Closure of political space in Oromia, intimidation by security forces in Southern Nations, legal cases against political enemies elsewhere.
Abiy's international partners from the US, EU, UN, AU need to impress upon him that he needs to de-escalate things and stop Ethiopia from heading into a civil war that could destroy the country and blow up the Horn of Africa.
Neighbouring #Eritrea, run by the less than democratic President Issayas Afwerki who is close to Abiy, could be drawn into conflict with the TPLF, which considers him a foe. The TPLF took Ethiopia into war with Eritrea in 1998 to 2000 and both sides have hated each other since.
The war could also suck in #Sudan, already teetering under its own fragile transition, with different Sudanese constituencies having close links to Addis Ababa, Mekelle (the Tigray capital) and Asmara.
In addition Ethiopia is supposed to be one of the key troop contributors for the African Union mission @amisomsomalia, if it is distracted by war at home, it may take its eyes off operations against #AlShabaab
We know the world's eyes are on the #USElections right now, but Ethiopia is too big to fail. The country's international partners need to step in now and push for de-escalation. The consequences will be more regional turmoil, more terrorism, more mass human displacement.
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