Thread by @EdEspinoza

A handful of reporters have reached out to me about Texas turnout today and I want to clear something up:

Biden did not underperform with Texas Latinos.

Dems increased vote share in Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb, and El Paso from 2016-2020.

Here we go...

#txlege #tx2020 #txdem

When you look at counties with an expanded electorate, such as Latino-majority counties, it's important to consider the actual vote share and *not just the percentage.*

Along the border, BOTH Democrats AND Republicans increased their votes:

Cameron
2020 - D 64k, R 49k
2016 - D 59k, R 29k

Hidalgo
20 - D 128k, R 90k
16 - D 119k, R 49k

Webb (still reporting)
20 - D 32k, R 19k
16 - D 42k, R 13k

El Paso
20 - D 169k, R 81k
16 - D 148k, R 55k

While border counties in Texas are very Latino they are also very rural - and Trump improved his performance in rural communities by 400k votes across Texas.

What we're seeing South Texas looks less like Latinos leaving Biden and more like rural voters flocking to Trump.

Anyone recall how after the 2016 election people saying that Clinton did better because "Texas Republicans crossed over" for her? 😂

At the time, few considered the expanded electorate. And that's how post-election narratives can deceive if we don't dig deeper.

When looking at expanded electorates, look at the whole number and not just percentages. Otherwise we can arrive at false narratives - which are dangerous the day after an election when stories get written and are accepted as fact for months/years until they are corrected.

Clarification on this thread - in my tracking spreadsheets I group smaller and rural communities together because it makes it easier to keep track of 254 counties.

Thus, I wrote "rural" when it would have been more accurate to write "smaller counties." Apologies for the error.