Latest update to our @HealthFdn Test and Trace performance tracker, with @cfraserepi:

health.org.uk/news-and-comme…
-Nearly 140,000 cases were handled in the most recent wk, 16% more than the previous week & a nine-fold increase since the start of September.

-The system has consistently been able to reach over 80% of cases, however the percentage of contacts reached stubbornly remains at 60%
-So, whilst 115,000 cases & 196,000 contacts were reached & advised to isolate, over 24,000 cases and 131,000 contacts weren’t.

The system is still far from achieving the 80% of contacts needed for the effective system recommended by the government’s SAGE.
-Encouragingly, the time between taking a test and getting results is falling & % of cases contacted w/i 24hrs increased to 67% from 44% the week before.

-Mass testing may help to further improve the time to get results, but this is still just at pilot stage.

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More from @ADMBriggs

5 Nov
Week 22 Test & Trace data summary. 22/10/20 – 28/10/20.

Tests⬇️, cases⬆️

Turnaround times much better, but overall performance unchanged meaning over 24,000 cases and 131,000 contacts still not reached.

Summary in pics, detail in thread

gov.uk/government/pub… ImageImageImage
There were 1,482,528 individuals tested this week, which is actually 3% lower than the week before.

However, number of positive tests up by 8% to 137,180 (similar % increase for P1 and P2)

Plus now >10m people in Eng have been tested at least once - that's quite something. ImageImage
Positivity rates climbing ever higher, and is now 10.9% in pillar 2 (9.9% the week before) and 4.8% in pillar 1 (4.2% the week before).

To make full sense of the picture, need to separate symptomatic vs asymptomatic testing. But shows STILL unlikely to be testing enough. Image
Read 22 tweets
5 Nov
PHE weekly flu and covid surveillance report for cases between 26/10 and 1/11.

Some takeaways.

TL;DR: hospitals are filling up, and not from flu.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Slight drop in cases wk on wk, but positivity rate still rising. This essentially means we're still not doing enough tests.

(note, ONS survey to 23/10 suggests community cases still rising fast, at 52,000/day, approx 3 times as many)
Case rates falling in <40y/o (but still account for a little over half of cases), but rising in >40y/o.

Positivity rates for pillar 2 upwards of 15% for 10-19y/o. This is really high (WHO said in May should be <5% for easing lockdown measures).
Read 11 tweets
29 Oct
Week 21 Test & Trace data summary. 15/10/20 – 21/10/20.

Tests⬆️, cases⬆️, positivity⬆️, contacts⬆️.

And whilst performance on contact tracing is similar to last week in many areas, it's taking ever longer.

Summary in picture, detail in thread 👇

gov.uk/government/pub…
More individuals than every are being tested each week. Over 1.5m in the for the most recent week.

This is no small achievement.
Case numbers are also rising. Up 23% to 126,065 in 15/10-21/10.

Positivity also rising for both pillar 1 (NHS/PHE labs) - now 4.1%, and pillar 2 (community) - now 9.9%.

Today's PHE surveillance report to 25/10 shows very similar data.
Read 25 tweets
29 Oct
This week's PHE flu and COVID surveillance. Data 19-25th Oct.

The situation continues to worsen.
Although good news that there's very little flu around at the moment.

gov.uk/government/sta…
Cases and positivity rates continue to rise - 120,000 cases in the week to 25th Oct.

By comparison. Data from REACT-1 study over the same period suggest 96,000 new community cases/day in England.
Cases continue to increase among older age groups, alongside evidence of case rates flattening off among children and young adults.
Read 12 tweets
22 Oct
Wk 20 Test and Trace - 08/10/20 to 15/10/20

-For the first time, >100,000 cases in a week
-Percentage of cases being reached is still high, but high numbers mean 18k still not contacted.
-Plus it's taking longer.

Summary in pics, detail in thread
gov.uk/government/pub… ImageImage
Whilst the number tested in the last week was same as wk before, the total cases⬆️12% to 101,494.

12,323 are pillar 1 (up 26% on last week), & 89,171 are pillar 2 (up 11% on last week.

Pillar 1 positivity now 3.3% (hospitals/outbreaks)
Pillar 2 positivity now 8.5% (community) ImageImageImage
By age, 10-29 yr olds still account for the majority of cases, but as today's PHE surveillance report (data to 28th Oct) shows, more and more older people are becoming infected, and infection rates among 10-29 may be leveling off.

ImageImageImageImage
Read 22 tweets
22 Oct
PHE flu and COVID surveillance report for 12th - 18th October is now up.

Summary here:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
P2 positivity still v high at 8.6% (P1 now 3.4%) but rate of growth has slowed.

Will be v important to see if next update of ONS infection mirrors this or not (last data is up to 8th Oct)
Cases still mainly in 10-29y/o age group, but cases now clearly rising up the age groups.

Case rates for 10-29y/os fallen since last week, alongside rises in all age groups above 30yrs.
Read 12 tweets

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