P2 positivity still v high at 8.6% (P1 now 3.4%) but rate of growth has slowed.
Will be v important to see if next update of ONS infection mirrors this or not (last data is up to 8th Oct)
Cases still mainly in 10-29y/o age group, but cases now clearly rising up the age groups.
Case rates for 10-29y/os fallen since last week, alongside rises in all age groups above 30yrs.
This is also largely reflected in the positivity rates.
And while case rates are potentially flattening (except note the West Midlands), NE, NW, Yorkshire and Humber still dominate.
And for ethnicity - again flattening of case rates in the most recent week but significant differences by ethnicity remain (+ worth noting last week's @ICNARC report showing over representation of non-white ethnicities in the critical care data)
although absolute numbers are high, it's encouraging to see that the amount of COVID incidents/outbreaks in care homes, educational settings (although would like this broken down by setting type), and workplaces is also not growing.
But it's worth keeping a close eye on hospitals.
While case rates might be levelling off a little overall, the rises in older populations is predictably translating into steep rises in admissions to hospital and then into intensive care.
And the rise in admissions is now across all regions - this is why hospital leaders and public health are get so concerned with the infection spreading up the age groups.
And whilst COVID deaths continue to climb, not yet showing in the excess mortality data.
But given lag b/w infection, hospitalisation, and deaths, this may be a matter of time.
Also worth note PHE mortality data and ICNARC data again showing M more affected than F.
-For the first time, >100,000 cases in a week
-Percentage of cases being reached is still high, but high numbers mean 18k still not contacted.
-Plus it's taking longer.
Whilst the number tested in the last week was same as wk before, the total cases⬆️12% to 101,494.
12,323 are pillar 1 (up 26% on last week), & 89,171 are pillar 2 (up 11% on last week.
Pillar 1 positivity now 3.3% (hospitals/outbreaks)
Pillar 2 positivity now 8.5% (community)
By age, 10-29 yr olds still account for the majority of cases, but as today's PHE surveillance report (data to 28th Oct) shows, more and more older people are becoming infected, and infection rates among 10-29 may be leveling off.
Particularly pillar 2 (community)
Cases⬆️69% from 47,656 to 80,485; positivity⬆️to 7.7% from 5.3%
For Pillar 1 (hospitals/outbreaks)
Cases⬆️32% from 7,119 to 9,389. Positivity now 2.5% from 1.9%
And new for TT, number of individuals tested each week rising wk on wk.
By age – as with last week, cases in 10-29 y/o STILL rising fast without big changes in numbers of tests done. This is reflected in the PHE surveillance positivity data by age.
This is about double what's coming through on Test and Trace data for the same time. And note that ONS doesn't include care homes, hospitals OR INSTITUTIONS - this means Uni halls of residences and colleges where we know there are significant outbreaks.
As with national testing data (as reported in PHE surveillance report), huge geographic variation with NE, NW, Yorkshire/Humber still massively more cases than elsewhere.
BUT cases may be plateauing in the north, although not in midlands/London.
Cases and positivity (to 7.8% in pillar 2 and 2.7% in pillar 1).
Although not rising as quickly this week as in previous weeks, it remains hard to interpret what it means for community prevalence because it's still unclear what testing access issues remain across the country.
Case numbers and rates still dominated by 10-29y/o age gp, but worth looking at rising case rates in all age gps, including 0-4 and 5-9y/o
Local contact tracing is where local authorities set up local teams to contact cases that the national team is unable to reach within 24hrs.
They're seen as part of the solution to rising case numbers in England.
And with good reason. Early data from places like Blackburn with Darwen @BWDDPH suggest that they're able to reach up to 9 out of 10 cases that couldn't be contacted by the national team.