We're still waiting on more counties to start certifying their results in Georgia, but a couple more rounds of votes were reported over the weekend.

Fulton
Biden - 1,611 (71.7%)
Trump - 576 (25.6%)

Gwinnett
Biden - 280 (68.5%)
Trump - 123 (30.1%)

Calhoun
Biden - 1 (100.0%)
And there's the update! 10 more counties certified and a chunk more votes reported.

Gwinnett (certified)
Biden - 407 (58.2%)
Trump - 274 (39.2%)

Bibb
Biden - 226 (72.7%)
Trump - 77 (24.8%)

Everything Else
Biden - 81 (45.0%)
Trump - 96 (53.3%)
Little updates from another dozen counties, and we're up to 55 total counties certified (out of 159 total, for those of you not familiar with Georgia).

Results:
Biden - 138 (54.3%)
Trump - 112 (44.1%)

Margin: 10,620
A couple big updates and a few more tiny ones brings Biden's lead in Georgia up to 11,595 (larger than Michigan in 2016)

Clayton
Biden - 1,111 (87.7%)
Trump - 142 (11.2%)

Cherokee
Biden - 111 (47.8%)
Trump - 113 (48.7%)

Others
Biden - 15 (30.0%)
Trump - 33 (66.0%)

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More from @gtryan

5 Nov
Ok, good afternoon everyone!

There have been a chunk of vote updates so far today, so let's go through them in a reasonable sequence.
First, some of the remaining big-sized counties:

Sumter
Biden - 815 (67.9%)
Trump - 372 (31.1%)

I expected a 530ish vote gain for Biden here, so a little underperfoming.

Putnam
Biden - 652 (47.8%)
Trump - 700 (51.3%)

I expected a 300 vote gain for Trump here, so big Biden win
Next, small updates from counties I thought were done! All of these are net wins for Biden that didn't factor into my projections.

Bartow - 129/125 (+4)
Fayette - 154/62 (+92)
Peach - 54/33 (+21)
Taylor - 83/31 (+52)
Read 19 tweets
5 Nov
I’ve watched a lot of early vote numbers come in today, and have been tracking the margins vs what existing vote predicts they’d be vs what the deficit is.

Right now Biden’s down by 38,126. I think he’s got ~44,500 margin in the outstanding votes.

Biden wins GA.
Predicted margins by outstanding (big) county:

Chatham - 8,225
Clayton - 5,207
Dekalb - 5,237
Dougherty - 1,740
Fulton - 20,025
Gwinnett - 2,393
Rockdale - 542
Sumter - 533
(Sumter’s not big, but that margin’s worth noting)
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
So, interesting data point.

The first batch of Houston County mail ballots have reported. The county was 60/38 in 2016 and pretty much in line with that after early in-person and day-of votes were counted this year.

Mail votes so far:
Biden - 2.026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)
There are still ~20k mail ballots to go in Houston County it looks like, but this was a county that was supposed to help protect against the Atlanta surge.

If Biden is actually making up ground here, it’s going to be real trouble for Trump.
To follow up here, and thanks to @JoshCrawfordNE for the tip, a peek at Jeff Davis County (yeahhhh, that one. problematic)

Small county, not impactful overall.

Full county went 81/18 for Trump.

Just released early vote totals were
Trump - 530
Biden - 520
Read 14 tweets
4 Nov
Good morning everyone!

As expected we cracked 4 million early votes in the file this morning. We have just over 3.7 million total early votes counted in the Presidential election. So still a little ways to go.
Most of these ballots are in the Democratic strongholds of Fulton and Dekalb, but there are plenty spread around the state as well from D-heavy spots like Clayton and Chatham, to R-heavy counties like Houston.
Trump’s lead is 101,795 at the moment.

A very rough analysis of looking at outstanding ballots by county, and those counties’ voting pattern, and would have Biden netting over 90,000 votes.
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
First round of Fulton early vote numbers

Biden - 58,946 (80.2%)
Trump - 13,913 (18.9%)

2016 was:

Clinton - 191,819 (69.2%)
Trump - 77,341 (27.9%)
Fulton update as some more early votes and a handful of day-of votes come in

Biden - 65,941 (78.4%)
Trump - 17,410 (20.7%)
More Fulton data

Biden - 107,662 (76.7%)
Trump - 31,230 (22.2%)
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
Initial early vote numbers in Cobb:

Biden - 73,526
Trump - 40,951
2016 full early vote in Cobb:

Clinton - 84,596
Trump - 73,550
Cobb Update

Biden - 84,624
Trump - 46,481

That’s more early votes than Clinton got in 2016 in Cobb County, and early in-person doesn’t look like it’s been counted yet.
Read 6 tweets

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