Thread by @MylesMcNulty

An extraordinary day. Firstly, fabulous initial data from Pfizer's vaccine, demonstrating it's 90% effective. An immense scientific breakthrough and a boon for humanity.

From an investment perspective (the raison d'être of this account!): a day of joy and misery, equally! 1/16

Global indices absolutely rocketed - 27/100 FTSE100 Cos ended the session at 10%+. Most sectors were up, whilst precious metals miners and #COVID19-centric stocks got obliterated. The latter group included treatment and testing stocks, and at home/online entertainment/living 2/16

Personally, my PF took an almighty spanking, owing to #AVCT being my largest position by a distance, and also having recently opened a position in #SNG.

A high quality vaccine was always the key risk to #COVID19 plays, but for me, that has always been a medium term risk. 3/16

A force that would slowly erode the investment theses of #COVID19 story stocks.

In my view, the selloff today in those stocks has been incredibly overdone.

As quality as the Pfizer vaccine is likely to be, testing and treatments will be around for years, I believe.

4/16

Uptake of vaccine(s) by the majority of a population still seems uncertain (numerous polls suggest that, at most, only ~50% of both the UK and the US will take it immediately) - and, whilst possible, I highly doubt that vaccination will be enforced by law in Western nations

5/16

A rollout of the vaccine worldwide - even if everyone were willing to participate - will also take 2+ years, given that Pfizer for example only has capacity to vaccinate 650m people at most next year, and only 325m in 2022 (unless manufacturing is further scaled up). 6/16

So for me, rapid testing and treatments are going to be in exceptionally high demand, worldwide, throughout all of 2021, minimum. From 2022-2025, sales of #COVID19 diagnostics and therapeutics will gradually tail out.

I held onto #AVCT as firstly, it's a LT investment... 7/16

...for me. I've only been holding #AVCT for ~10 months. My first target is to see the top line results from the pro-dox trials (mid next year), as the drug has the potential to revolutionise cancer treatment.

That does not mean to say that I think the #COVID19 products... 8/16

...will fail. On the contrary, I have set out in very clear detail why I believe #AVCT's LFT will be one of - if not THE - most accurate #COVID19 LFT in the world.

Many are saying that #AVCT has now officially 'missed the boat', in terms of profiting from the pandemic. 9/16

Certainly #AVCT will have missed out on 3-4 months of potentially major sales, by the time that it DOES get its LFT to market.

But as far as I'm aware, it's still one of the leaders of the pack in launching an LFT for at-home use (no others have FDA approval or CE marking) 10/16

Biden and Johnson have both explicitly stated in the past 24 hours that LFTs remain the first line of defence in the war against the pandemic, and that both nations will be ramping up capacity considerably going forward. The only real surprise in today's news is that it... 11/16

...looks like take-up of vaccination only need be ~65% to begin to achieve herd immunity (rather than 85%+, had Pfizer's vaccine had demonstrated say 60% effectiveness).

Likewise, all of this points to the fact that millions of people next year will again be hospitalised...12/16

...by #COVID19. As such, a highly effective, easy-to-administer treatment will also be in immense demand over the medium term. Cue #SNG's SNG001. A drop in its SP of 39% today was quite simply ludicrous.

Nevertheless, the market (especially the UK micro/small-cap...13/16

...space in which I operate) is driven by sentiment - and the market's sentiment has experienced a fundamental shift on the back of today's news. Thus in my view only the highest quality of #COVID19 stocks are going to thrive now. My picks are #AVCT and #SNG, although I... 14/16

...see #NCYT (established leader in PCR) and #ODX (antibody tests will be required to assist in vaccine rollout) as other strong candidates (I currently don't hold either).

#COVID19 isn't going anywhere, but the retail-driven bubble has burst. Survival of the fittest now. 15/16

Final point: where to go now? Besides the obvious industries that will benefit from lifting socialising and travel restrictions, my preferred destination is into all things that could be classed as 'natural world preservers'.

Green tech, yes - but more industries besides. 16/16