An extraordinary day. Firstly, fabulous initial data from Pfizer's vaccine, demonstrating it's 90% effective. An immense scientific breakthrough and a boon for humanity.

From an investment perspective (the raison d'être of this account!): a day of joy and misery, equally! 1/16
Global indices absolutely rocketed - 27/100 FTSE100 Cos ended the session at 10%+. Most sectors were up, whilst precious metals miners and #COVID19-centric stocks got obliterated. The latter group included treatment and testing stocks, and at home/online entertainment/living 2/16
Personally, my PF took an almighty spanking, owing to #AVCT being my largest position by a distance, and also having recently opened a position in #SNG.

A high quality vaccine was always the key risk to #COVID19 plays, but for me, that has always been a medium term risk. 3/16
A force that would slowly erode the investment theses of #COVID19 story stocks.

In my view, the selloff today in those stocks has been incredibly overdone.

As quality as the Pfizer vaccine is likely to be, testing and treatments will be around for years, I believe.

Uptake of vaccine(s) by the majority of a population still seems uncertain (numerous polls suggest that, at most, only ~50% of both the UK and the US will take it immediately) - and, whilst possible, I highly doubt that vaccination will be enforced by law in Western nations

A rollout of the vaccine worldwide - even if everyone were willing to participate - will also take 2+ years, given that Pfizer for example only has capacity to vaccinate 650m people at most next year, and only 325m in 2022 (unless manufacturing is further scaled up). 6/16
So for me, rapid testing and treatments are going to be in exceptionally high demand, worldwide, throughout all of 2021, minimum. From 2022-2025, sales of #COVID19 diagnostics and therapeutics will gradually tail out.

I held onto #AVCT as firstly, it's a LT investment... 7/16
...for me. I've only been holding #AVCT for ~10 months. My first target is to see the top line results from the pro-dox trials (mid next year), as the drug has the potential to revolutionise cancer treatment.

That does not mean to say that I think the #COVID19 products... 8/16
...will fail. On the contrary, I have set out in very clear detail why I believe #AVCT's LFT will be one of - if not THE - most accurate #COVID19 LFT in the world.

Many are saying that #AVCT has now officially 'missed the boat', in terms of profiting from the pandemic. 9/16
Certainly #AVCT will have missed out on 3-4 months of potentially major sales, by the time that it DOES get its LFT to market.

But as far as I'm aware, it's still one of the leaders of the pack in launching an LFT for at-home use (no others have FDA approval or CE marking) 10/16
Biden and Johnson have both explicitly stated in the past 24 hours that LFTs remain the first line of defence in the war against the pandemic, and that both nations will be ramping up capacity considerably going forward. The only real surprise in today's news is that it... 11/16
...looks like take-up of vaccination only need be ~65% to begin to achieve herd immunity (rather than 85%+, had Pfizer's vaccine had demonstrated say 60% effectiveness).

Likewise, all of this points to the fact that millions of people next year will again be hospitalised...12/16 #COVID19. As such, a highly effective, easy-to-administer treatment will also be in immense demand over the medium term. Cue #SNG's SNG001. A drop in its SP of 39% today was quite simply ludicrous.

Nevertheless, the market (especially the UK micro/small-cap...13/16 in which I operate) is driven by sentiment - and the market's sentiment has experienced a fundamental shift on the back of today's news. Thus in my view only the highest quality of #COVID19 stocks are going to thrive now. My picks are #AVCT and #SNG, although I... 14/16
...see #NCYT (established leader in PCR) and #ODX (antibody tests will be required to assist in vaccine rollout) as other strong candidates (I currently don't hold either).

#COVID19 isn't going anywhere, but the retail-driven bubble has burst. Survival of the fittest now. 15/16
Final point: where to go now? Besides the obvious industries that will benefit from lifting socialising and travel restrictions, my preferred destination is into all things that could be classed as 'natural world preservers'.

Green tech, yes - but more industries besides. 16/16

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More from @MylesMcNulty

9 Nov
Exciting development for #N4P today - Launch of Nuvec Oncology Treatment Programme.

This potentially opens up a third colossal market, after vaccine delivery x2 (injection and oral).

The really exciting thing about this Co is that its asset, Nuvec, is already developed and..1/4
...largely refined. It now need only prove consistent in-vivo success for its three target applications (oncology injection; vaccine injection; vaccine oral), and it can start out-licensing Nuvec.

And that's the core of the investment proposition: Nuvec is a platform tech. 2/4
It can be licensed out to multiple parties for multiple targets/applications. #N4P will receive upfront and milestone payments as the licensee takes the drug / vaccine (using Nuvec as the delivery platform) through the clinic.

N4P's cost base is exceptionally low; yet... 3/4
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
At home antigen testing for #COVID19.

Detection of pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic cases - to a high degree of accuracy - is key.

99% specificity is a must, and ideally sensitivity of 92-93%+.

There should also be a method of logging the result in an objective manner...1/n
...elsewise individuals with positive results could disregard government instructions and go out for work / socialising regardless.

@avacta #AVCT's Affimers are an antibody mimetic - designed to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.

The evidence indicates... 2n
...that Affimer-based lateral flow tests will likely have a higher specificity than mAb-based LFTs, and possibly higher sensitivity too. Moreover, they are rapid to develop, cheaper to manufacture, and are robust (a benefit both for supply chain issues and for shelf-life).

Read 5 tweets
27 Sep
#AVCT interims tomorrow.

Comprehensive updates on all work streams of the Therapeutics and Diagnostics divisions will be provided.

Naturally, the content will likely be dominated by the various #COVID19 products under development - and of those, many market participants... 1/n
...(esp. new holders) will only have eyes for the LFT.

I think it’s important to appreciate the number of short term traders - and nervous retail investors - there are in #AVCT at present.

In my view, the near-term SP movement (which I think will be strong, either way)... 2/n
...will be driven by one very simple - but critical - matter: whether #AVCT has been permitted to disclose in its interims the UK Gov’s involvement in the rollout of the LFT.

I think the majority will agree that that involvement is beyond question.

Project #Moonshot... 3/n
Read 9 tweets
24 Sep
New nano-cap position taken via placing: #BIOM @BiomePlastics.

A brief intro, with in depth notes to follow in due course:

BIOM has two operating divisions: Bioplastics (biodegradable / compostable plastics) and Stanelco RF Technologies (advanced radio frequency systems).

Interims out today, along with a placing at 120p for £1.1m gross. Assuming a successful GM, mkt cap at the current SP of 165p will be £6.1m.

Net cash post GM will be ~£1.8m, so enterprise value at 165p will be ~£4.3m.

My investment is solely based on the Bioplastics div..

..which is a rapidly growing biz operating in a rapidly expanding market that I believe will become an increasingly hot topic going forward.

I'll be posting more about the products and target markets in due course, but here's a good place to start:

Read 11 tweets
24 Sep
We now know that #AVCT's Affimers are being used in at least 5 diagnostics products for #COVID19:

- LFT (with Cytiva)
- BAMS (with Adeptrix)
- ELISA (in-house)
- Microtox BT (with #SKIN)
- Microtox PD (with SKIN)

Working prototypes for all.

And people still doubt Affimers? 1/9
For BAMS and Microtox BT and PD, #AVCT's work is largely complete. It will simply be providing a regular supply of Affimers to Adeptrix and #SKIN, and enjoy steady royalties (which, as many of us are beginning to realise, could be for much longer than initially anticipated).

This frees up mgmt's time to focus on the proprietary tests, the (all-important!) LFT and the ELISA (which I believe most are under-estimating the earnings potential of).

Whilst some might point out that none of the 5 products have yet been commercialised, I would argue... 3/9
Read 9 tweets
21 Sep
This was a fortunately timed move, but in hindsight, perhaps even more could have been taken off the table...! FTSE approaching -4% on the day.

Then again, as we all inevitably learn the hard way - hindsight is not a strategy.

Regardless, I have a healthy cash pile to...

...deploy now, with many excellent opportunities about.

#COVID19 testing stocks should of course do very well in the coming few months, with the #AZN / Oxford vaccine delayed and #Moonshot being launched.

My top picks (and the only ones I hold) remain #AVCT and #NCYT.

In my view, we won't see a market meltdown. The fear factor driven by 'The Great Unknown' is no longer present, as it was in Feb/March.

Of course, there are some sectors I won't be touching, but many industries have gotten to grips with lockdown working measures/lifestyle.

Read 4 tweets

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