Our letter in the Lancet today- signed by 79 world-leading scientists - outlining key recommendations for a sustainable COVID-19 strategy within the UK. Thread.

thelancet.com/journals/lance…
We are in the second wave in England - seeing >20K COVID-19 cases/day and ~340 deaths/day - largely due to failures of govt policy. Lockdowns are needed when public health strategies to control the epidemic fail. It's essential the govt learns from this, and uses this time well.
What can we do to prevent being in the same position in a few months time? Here are our recommendations:

1. We need to urgently reform the find, test, trace, isolate and support system.

It's clear the current privately run system isn't fit for purpose.
The NHS system performance has been vastly superior to that of the privately run one - both in terms of how quickly tests are done, and how many contacts are reached. The system needs to be handed to the NHS, and local authorities.
People need to be supported with isolation- through providing financial, social, and practical support. Compliance with isolation is low, and is unlikely to improve unless we provide far better support with this.
2. We need to protect the NHS so it's able to provide care for all patients. Reducing COVID-19 transmission is key to this, so the NHS is not overwhelmed. The NHS requires more funding after a decade of being starved of funding and resources. And staff need protection and support
3. Education: We need to control transmission in the community and in schools, to allow schools to remain open. Schools need to be made safe- through better ventilation, smaller class sizes, face coverings. Schools need clear guidance and support.
If blended/remote learning is needed, the govt must ensure equipment & broadband is available to all children, and support families with this.

Universities must move to online instruction, and support students in returning home safely.
4. Comprehensive economic support packages for those who are most impacted, and for those who are vulnerable, including support for ethnic minorities. And specific support for women and children- child benefits, free school meals, domestic violence support services.
5. Guidance, and safety regulations for workplaces, and support to employers to put these in place. Workplaces will need to meet the required safety standards to remain open - to protect all employees.
6. We need coordination across Europe, and within the UK - on travel restrictions, data sharing, contact tracing app compatibility, developing and procuring rapid tests, procuring medical kits, procuring vaccines, and developing fair allocation protocols for vaccines.
7. We need clear, honest, & consistent govt public messaging- treating the public as equals, & avoiding blame. Important the govt stops treating the 'economy' and controlling COVID-19 as a dichotomy- it is not. The aims of protecting health, economy, and education are all tied.

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More from @dgurdasani1

11 Nov
>60,000 deaths in the UK, with 595 deaths reported today. And rising excess deaths each wk.

Where are the COVID-19 deniers, and 'herd immunity' proponents now, when the impact of their disinformation campaigns is being felt?

We warned against this repeatedly, but were ignored.
We've all received so much abuse about 'fear-mongering', 'fake' predictions, fake tests etc.

The sad truth is not only was all this completely foreseeable, it was foreseen, and recommendations made to prevent it. But nothing was done.
Instead the govt chose to listen to people like Heneghan, and Gupta, and now we have the ERG, and Farage taking this on further.

All while we have to helplessly watch while entirely preventable deaths occur.
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
There have been recent reports of the mink farm related outbreak in Denmark which has received attention in the media, and has concerned many scientists, and health organisations. What's happening in Denmark now is important. Here's why. Thread.

who.int/csr/don/06-nov…
There have been reports of transmission related to mink farming across several countries over the past few months. The recent outbreak in Denmark suggests that a mutated strain of virus passed from minks to humans, and then spread across humans.
Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 occur regularly, and most have minimal or no impact on viral fitness, as far as we can see from the data. But animal reservoirs can be more important in this regard. Mutations in a virus occur randomly through natural processes.
Read 15 tweets
7 Nov
A few thoughts on these interpretations, that appear to suggest (with caveats) that schools in England haven't necessarily contributed much to transmission. The evidence presented here does not necessarily support this. A thread.
The lower number of cases identified among 0-10 yr olds ignores the fact that we know that children are likely to be asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, which means that symptom-based testing is likely to vastly underestimate infections in this age group

There have been significant clusters of infection of COVID-19 identified in schools (both primary and secondary). These form the majority of clusters of acute respiratory incidents identified related to COVID-19 since September.
Read 13 tweets
22 Oct
A thread on where we are with the COVID-19 pandemic in England, and what we need to do urgently based on current evidence. This thread also explores why the govt Tier 1-3 strategy is nothing but a distraction from the actual public health response needed. 1/N
As we know, the PHE data shows an exponential increase in daily confirmed cases of COVID-19. We are currently seeing between 25-30K daily cases. This is likely an underestimate as testing capacity has been reached. Moreover, increases are occurring across all of England. 2/N ImageImage
Predictably increase in case numbers have translated over time into increasing hospitalisations across all of England, with regions in the North likely to hit NHS capacity soon if we don't act. While increases in the South appear slower, these are only lagging 3-4 wks behind. 3/N ImageImage
Read 22 tweets
20 Oct
tw: misogyny, discrimination, harassment in academia

A thread about my observations from academic and other contexts. I've felt compelled to write this after realising how the deliberate framing of these issues prevents any change in the status quo, and perpetuates injustice.
As women, many of us face misogyny in our workplaces, and in society on a daily basis. Here, misogyny is defined not as hatred of women, but rather structural patriarchal norms that have certain expectations from women & penalise those who break these, or speak out against these.
Of course, discrimination is intersectional, with ethnic minority women likely to fare worse in these systems. Much like with racism, experiences of women are often shaped by daily micro-aggressions - including a dismissal of their expertise, their discomfort, and their feelings.
Read 14 tweets
6 Oct
Another declaration on 'herd immunity' signed by Sunetra Gupta(Oxford), Jay Bhattacharya (Stanford) & Martin Kulldorff(Harvard) who don't have a single peer reviewed publication on covid-19 epidemiology between them

Can we stop platforming pseudoscience?

theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
And these are not experts, or researchers who have provided any evidence to support their damaging views. If you want experts, there are so many around - who are basing their views on the actual evidence. There is zero evidence to support a 'herd immunity' based strategy.
@iansample - while I appreciate comments from actual experts like @trishgreenhalgh and @BillHanage are included, the way the piece is set seems to suggest these are equally valid opinions from equals in a field. This couldn't be further from the truth.
Read 5 tweets

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