Jon Worth Profile picture
10 Nov, 8 tweets, 3 min read
I have been thinking a lot about the Internal Market Bill and Brexiter reactions to Biden and the House of Lords vote, and have written a new blog post:

"The Internal Market Bill and Brexiters still unable to face the Brexit Trilemma"

jonworth.eu/the-internal-m…
The essence: I don't think there is a serious denial from the UK Govt that Internal Market Bill breaks international law - I hence disagree somewhat with this from @DavidHenigUK - it's not they think the US and EU are wrong, but that it does not matter

Why does it not matter?

Because Brexiters - Redwood, Johnson himself, Hannan and their ilk - are still one step behind

They still refuse to acknowledge the trade offs in @rdanielkelemen's Brexit Trilemma Image
The trilemma is explained in full here:


A Brexit Deal, having agreed the Withdrawal Agreement and NI Protocol last year, cements the UK into quadrant A of the trilemma - and to do so requires NI-rest UK border infra...
... and that's why the offending clauses of the Internal Market Bill are still there.

They basically still give Brexiters the cover to aim for 🦄 land - D on the diagram - which is actually impossible to reach.
In other words: for the House of Lords, for Biden, for the EU, the IM Bill is a question of legality and respecting previous commitments (or not) - and viewed this way the UK Govt's reluctance to just fold behind the House of Lords position looks strange
But for Brexiters, the IM Bill is a means to keep the option of a 🦄 Brexit open still

But everyone is running out of time, with the clock now ticking loudly towards the end of the transition period at the end of 2020...
And all of this... inexorably leads us towards No Deal.

Because *any* Deal now forces Brexiters to face some trade offs - and the battle over the Internal Market Bill shows they are still not willing to face those.

/ends

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More from @jonworth

11 Nov
OK, time for a deep breath

There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...

But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think Image
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)

No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking

Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Read 9 tweets
11 Nov
Let's conduct a little thought experiment for a moment

If mainstream Westminster opinion *is* right, and Johnson agrees some kind of Brexit Deal between now and the end of next week...

And this Deal has commitments on level playing field and governance that Tories don't like...
Then what?

Because the House of Commons does not have a formal vote on the Deal (see this from @matt_bevington ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/rat… ), what lever have Tory hardliners got?
Do they grumble and fill our airwaves with effluent?

Or do they rebel more forcefully?

The only route I see is they could write letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee... but 55 letters are needed to trigger a contest. That's surely not going to be reached?
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov
Damn I am 🤮 of people arguing there ought to be no place for Starmer / Blair / Corbyn* in Labour, or no place for AOC / Sanders* for the Democrats, or that Biden is too pragmatic for the Democrats

YOU LIVE IN 2 PARTY SYSTEMS

* - delete according to your political prejudices
I don't live in a 2 party system

Were I in the UK, both Sigmar Gabriel and I would have to be in the Labour Party

But because Germany has a multi party system, my liberal left can pleasantly be in the Grüne, and Gabriel's authoritarian reactionary left in the SPD
Yes, my party might have to go into a coalition with the SPD. But I, as a party member, do not have to pass the time of day with someone like Gabriel

And that's better for *everyone*
Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
So here is the full Redwood letter to Biden

johnredwoodsdiary.com/2020/11/08/let…
I'll ignore the first paragraphs and focus on Brexit paragraph
"I must stress that the U.K. does uphold the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland."

But we passed a Bill through the House of Commons that doesn't.

Oh and don't think of an 🐘!
Read 12 tweets
8 Nov
If - as it sounds - this is the beginning of the grabbing of the steering wheel to perform a u-turn and go for a Brexit Deal, what then has to happen?
First, the House of Lords *tomorrow* needs to gut the Internal Market Bill of the offending clauses, and then the Government will have to not threaten to put the clauses back in during ping-pong.
Second, the outstanding issues in the negotiations - not least on fishing, Level Playing Field and especially on governance need to be hammered out.
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
The essential problem with much of the commentary on UK-US relations and Biden's win, especially with regard to Brexit, is a misunderstanding of perception / communication, versus reality
Let's start with the prospect of a US-UK trade deal, post-Brexit

There has NEVER been a realistic prospect of this deal happening

Why?

The Democrats have controlled the House since the end of 2018, and the House has to approve any Deal
The US would have pushed for agriculture and healthcare to be included in a Deal, the UK would have pushed for financial services. On the substance it would have become a nightmare

And that's before you even come to the implications of Brexit and trade on Ireland
Read 13 tweets

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