OK, time for a deep breath
There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
The emerging consensus Brussels side is that the end of next week - probably Thursday 19 November - really is it. Nothing agreed by then and then you're into the realm of needing something extraordinary
The chances something is agreed then?
🤷♂️
I am hedging - 50-50
Barnier and Frost are still talking 👍
Enough progress to compromise on deadline 👍
No political attention to this London side 👎
No news of even small breakthroughs 👎
🤷♂️
I am hedging - 50-50
Barnier and Frost are still talking 👍
Enough progress to compromise on deadline 👍
No political attention to this London side 👎
No news of even small breakthroughs 👎
If something is hammered out, then the chances of getting it all sorted by the end of the year are pretty good - even if Johnson refuses to withdraw the offending parts of the IM Bill then the House of Lords will
If there is no progress next week in the negotiations, and everyone then advances towards No Deal it gets a *lot* more rocky - does anyone panic? And if so, who?
And as the Commons cannot stop this, there is the ⛈ of Tory party shenanigans on the horizon
And as the Commons cannot stop this, there is the ⛈ of Tory party shenanigans on the horizon
This has been compiled thanks to the direct and indirect input of a bunch of brilliant people @matt_bevington @usherwood @syrpis @joe_mayes @thimontjack @Brigid_Fowler @NashSGC @nickgutteridge @NvOndarza @StevePeers but the ultimate conclusion and errors made are mine!
Background for Series 5 is on my blog here:
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings will always be uploaded here:
jonworth.eu/series5
As ever feedback most welcome!
jonworth.eu/brexitdiagram-…
High res PNG and PDF files, the draw(dot)io XML, and the XLS for the workings will always be uploaded here:
jonworth.eu/series5
As ever feedback most welcome!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
