Do they grumble and fill our airwaves with effluent?
Or do they rebel more forcefully?
The only route I see is they could write letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee... but 55 letters are needed to trigger a contest. That's surely not going to be reached?
(Note: this is no comment on whether there will be a Deal or not, but instead a view on what will happen if one is agreed)
Views on this - and indeed any other way hardliner Brexiters could rebel - very welcome!
/ends
(NOTE: there would be a vote, but not a vote that can actually stop the Deal - Britain having taken back control and all that... just not the Commons)
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There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Damn I am 🤮 of people arguing there ought to be no place for Starmer / Blair / Corbyn* in Labour, or no place for AOC / Sanders* for the Democrats, or that Biden is too pragmatic for the Democrats
YOU LIVE IN 2 PARTY SYSTEMS
* - delete according to your political prejudices
I don't live in a 2 party system
Were I in the UK, both Sigmar Gabriel and I would have to be in the Labour Party
But because Germany has a multi party system, my liberal left can pleasantly be in the Grüne, and Gabriel's authoritarian reactionary left in the SPD
Yes, my party might have to go into a coalition with the SPD. But I, as a party member, do not have to pass the time of day with someone like Gabriel
I have been thinking a lot about the Internal Market Bill and Brexiter reactions to Biden and the House of Lords vote, and have written a new blog post:
"The Internal Market Bill and Brexiters still unable to face the Brexit Trilemma"
The essence: I don't think there is a serious denial from the UK Govt that Internal Market Bill breaks international law - I hence disagree somewhat with this from @DavidHenigUK - it's not they think the US and EU are wrong, but that it does not matter
First, the House of Lords *tomorrow* needs to gut the Internal Market Bill of the offending clauses, and then the Government will have to not threaten to put the clauses back in during ping-pong.
Second, the outstanding issues in the negotiations - not least on fishing, Level Playing Field and especially on governance need to be hammered out.
The essential problem with much of the commentary on UK-US relations and Biden's win, especially with regard to Brexit, is a misunderstanding of perception / communication, versus reality
Let's start with the prospect of a US-UK trade deal, post-Brexit
There has NEVER been a realistic prospect of this deal happening
Why?
The Democrats have controlled the House since the end of 2018, and the House has to approve any Deal
The US would have pushed for agriculture and healthcare to be included in a Deal, the UK would have pushed for financial services. On the substance it would have become a nightmare
And that's before you even come to the implications of Brexit and trade on Ireland