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Dave Wasserman Profile picture
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11 Nov, 3 tweets, 2 min read
It's been a terrible day for Dems in uncalled House races:

#CA21: Valadao (R) still ahead by 4,026 votes
#CA25: Garcia (R) retakes lead by 159 votes
#CA39: Kim (R) lead up to 4,160 votes
#IA02: Miller-Meeks (R) now ahead by 40 votes
#UT04: Owens (R) lead up to 1,780 votes
Look guys, I've seen enough. Young Kim (R) is well on her way to defeating freshman Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) in #CA39. In an upset, Dems lose an Orange County district Clinton carried 51%-43% in 2016.
Kim (R) just turned in an unreal performance in the Los Angeles Co. portion of #CA39 (Rowland Heights, Diamond Bar, Walnut), zooming ahead of both Trump's '16 share and her own '18 share. I'm pretty curious what happened there.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
11 Nov
The first state to certify its 2020 election results? Delaware:

Biden 296,268 (58.7%)
Trump 200,603 (39.8%)

That's a 7.6 point margin swing against Trump and a 14.2 percent increase in votes cast vs. 2016. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
(adding WY to start a state certification thread)
Oklahoma has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,020,280 (65.4%)
Biden 503,890 (32.3%)

That's a 3.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 7.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
7 Nov
Here's a list of Philly precincts that don't appear to be anywhere near the 62% turnout in the rest of the city.

Division/ballots counted as share of RVs

04-14: 18%
07-17: 15%
25-15: 24%
37-17: 13%
37-18: 20%
51-26: 22%
52-21: 23%

All these are hugely Dem divisions.
This doesn't even include the six student-heavy precincts in University City currently at 11%-25% ballots counted as a share of RVs (we'd expect turnout there to be very low, but that low?)

Meanwhile, all the Trump-heavy areas of Philly (NE, South) look about fully reported.
The point here is that it would make sense if the outstanding mail ballots in Philly are disproportionately from these "outlier" precincts - and if those ballots end up breaking by an even larger margin for Biden than those that have already been counted.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
7 Nov
Diving into the data, there are 21 Philly precincts that aren't reporting anywhere near their full vote, all in heavy D areas of the city... results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDe…?
Turnout city-wide is currently at 61.4% of registered voters, but all of these 21 divisions reported less than 30% of RV's ballots counted, with a heavy concentration in the 27th Ward around University City.

And, there are plenty of divisions in the 30%-40% range as well.
If this is where the remaining Philadelphia mail vote is from, it's bound to be even more Biden-friendly than the mail vote of the city as a whole, since almost all of the Trump-friendly precincts in NE/South Philly are at high turnout.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
6 Nov
So far in the seven heavily red PA counties that have reported provisionals, they've represented just 0.9% of all ballots and have only broken for Trump by 3.7% more than his share of the other votes (76.1% vs. 72.4%).

Here's why that's probably not good enough for Trump...
If you were to take those proportions and extrapolate them to the rest of the counties, it would only net Trump about 5k votes (+31k Trump to +26k Biden). Right now, he's on track to finish the remaining mail ballot count down by 50k+ votes. But that's not all...
Modeling off these seven counties would project there are only 57k more provisional ballots to count.

In reality, PA officials have said there are at least 92k that remain to be adjudicated/counted, w/ a much higher share in Philadelphia (17k). That's good news for Biden.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
5 Nov
Have a hard time believing reports there are only 120k uncounted ballots remaining in Philadelphia. That would put it at 695k, leaving it short of the 707k total votes cast in 2016.

Turnout declines aren't happening anywhere in PA, including Pittsburgh...
In other words, I'm extremely skeptical that estimate is accurate. Nonetheless, even if it were borne out, it wouldn't alter my thinking on who's likely to finish ahead.
If Philadephia's turnout was in line with similar cities (and there's no real reason to believe it would be way out of line w/ Detroit, Milwaukee, etc.), there might be 200k-250k ballots left to count there - in which case Biden could take the statewide lead w/ Philly alone.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
3 Nov
Not that it can tell us who will win, but its 7:30am and the Election Day vote in FL is already *much* more Republican than the early/mail vote.
It's not like this is unexpected, and it's an important reminder that we're going to see unprecedented partisan polarization between the early/mail batches and the Election Day batches tonight.
For those of you who are saying "oh, it's just one county..." actually no, this pattern is consistent across pretty much every FL county almost an hour in. And the fact Broward Co. is an EDay Dem-GOP tie so far is consistent w/ a strong GOP EDay overperformance vs. early vote.
Read 4 tweets

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