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7 Nov, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Here is my latest heatmap of detected Covid-19 cases in England. Data from @PHE_uk

*** 177 *** cases per 100,000 in the over-80s.

There were **8** cases per 100,000 in the over-80s in late August.

See the positivity chart in this thread to show that many cases go undetected.
Colourblind-safe heatmap of detected Covid-19 cases in England. Data from @PHE_uk
Positivity of tests for males in Pillar 2. Anything above 5% means we are not testing enough people.

*All* age groups in males are not tested sufficiently.

There is a significant issue with males not being tested sufficiently.
Positivity of tests for females in Pillar 2.

*All* age groups in females (with the potential exception of over-80s) are not tested sufficiently.
Hospitalizations increasing in every 15+ age group.

110 per 100,000 over 85-year-olds
61 per 100,000 75-84-year-olds
27 per 100,000 65-74-year-olds
ICU/HDU admissions.

65-74 year olds are have the greatest proportion of ICU/HDU (Intensive Care Unit / High Dependency Unit) admissions across age groups.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
6 Nov
The updated SPI-M slides - a short thread on what's changed.

On 31 September, in a hastily arranged press conference, the Chief Scientific Adviser presented these two slides, showing projections for hospital admissions and deaths.

These were subsequently revised
The first slide shows a *projection* for hopsital admissions. On the left, the oringial slide, on the right, the amended slide.

These slides present a *range* of the projection (the shaded blue area), and a central projection (the dark blue line).
The upper level for the range of the projection has changed but *the central projection* (the dark blue line) *has not changed*
Read 17 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
5 Nov
Public Health England have published their Covid-19 surveillance report for week 45 relating to data from week 44 (26 Oct - 1 Nov)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

"Surveillance indicators suggest that COVID-19 activity at a national level has increased or remained high during week 44.
"Positivity rates were highest in the 80+ year olds tested through both Pillar 1 (NHS and PHE testing) and in the 10 to 19 year olds tested through Pillar 2 (community testing)."

(positivity indicates whether enough testing is being done)
Levelling off in Pillar 2 cases. However, this is due to testing capacity issues &/or not enough people coming forward.

Positivity in Pillar 2 unacceptably high (not enough testing)
Read 17 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
5 Nov
Day 1 of #Lockdown2.

This is not as stringent a lockdown as before - children are still at school (which has benefits for the children), and people are less apprehensive than the first lockdown.
The lockdown was announced in advance, and we have seen people go to shops yesterday in great numbers to ensure they have the products they want.

And yesterday was seen by some as the last chance for a gathering.

Both these things will have increased transmission.
Due to the less stringent measures this time around, it will mean that it will take longer for the incidence of the virus to reduce. (We could have timed measures around the half term holiday, which would have meant that the measures were more effective).
Read 6 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
4 Nov
A thread on the modelling and analysis used to suggest scenarios for what *could* happen if we do nothing. And commentary on this slide.
The slides that were presented in the Number 10 press conference on 31 October are here:
gov.uk/government/pub…
Firstly, commentary on the modelling. Modelling for Covid-19 is performed by a number of academic groups around the country. They use different modelling techniques. Some of these models are used to come up with the R value.
Read 26 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
2 Nov
Right then. A little thread about 'focused protection'.

Focused protection appears to be the new 'herd immunity', rebranded to sound nice and comforting.

Problem is, it's anything but.

Here's some background to where the term came from.
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
We *already* have 150 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s. That's hundreds of deaths in the coming weeks.

There were fewer than 10 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s in August. So that's a 16-fold increase, which works out as doubling every 2 weeks.
There's also some discussion about the 82-year-old - the median age for people dying from Covid.

Read this thread - those 82-year-olds can be expected to reach 90 if they don't catch Covid.

Read 4 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
28 Oct
Let's take a little review of where we are with UK Covid restrictions.

It wasn't meant to be like this.

A Thread.

With apologies to Nandos.
It wasn't meant to be like this. Remember the Alert Levels (the 'Nandos chart')? The whole idea of that was to set some sort of policy - a roadmap if you will - of how we get out of a national lockdown.

Introducing... Covid Alert Levels. 12 May

gov.uk/government/pub…
Remember this? The gentle ski slope of calm.

'R less than 1 caseload decreasing'

Ah, simpler times.
Read 18 tweets

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