Thread by @Monkeybane_DC

1) Let's game out what a realistic independence movement in #space might look like. AS ALWAYS these views are my own. We're going to need to draw from #spacelaw, #internationalrelations, #InternationalLaw, and #history here. A thread.

2) Let's posit that the goal is a sovereign, self-governing habitation on #Mars, free-floating, or on the #Moon, not subject to control by a terrestrial country. How do we get from where we are now to there? Yes we've all read Moon is a Harsh Mistress and the Red Mars trilogy.

3) The first thing to realize is that you can't do this in one step. Ops in space are entwined with terrestrial activities and governments so separation is hard. As for law, the #OuterSpaceTreaty requires countries to exercise jurisdiction & control over activities, even private.

4) So we're going to need a step-wise approach. Something to incrementally develop settlement based governance and lessen that terrestrial connection, both legally and practically. Only at the end of the line do you get independence. You can't just hand-waive your way there.

5) We could game all of this out in great detail. Actual newly independent countries have done this! It's a mistake for #spacepolicy people to ignore that #independencemovement experience. But let's just try some ideas for now.

6) Short-term, private actors could use contracts to begin separating activities from terrestrial control. Could require participants to use space-based dispute resolution & avoid recourse to terrestrial courts, so long as everything is consistent with the OST & applicable law.

7) Building on that, once you have ongoing operations, you could develop increasing governance details. All consistent with international and Earth-domestic law for now. But build out internal rules, enforcement, etc. Start governing your peeps and your place.

8) This could become almost organic in its growth. Increasing sophistication of operations leads to increasing self-governance AS A PRACTICAL BUT NOT YET LEGAL MATTER.

9) Skipping ahead, once you have a functioning entity, you're going to largely be meeting traditional requirements for independence. Territorial control, institutions of governance, etc. You did all this without doing any violence to the existing legal system. So far.

10) Beginnings are a delicate time, and now the true independence movement begins. Hopefully peacefully, you announce your intentions to become independent and self-governing. Only now is where changes to the law are going to be required.

11) You've got at least two interrelated issues. 1, how to get recognized. 2, where you fit in the international system. Recognition is hard, and will be a (hopefully peaceful) fight. But we've done that before, #kosovo, etc. You need to demonstrate that you can govern.

12) As for the international system, Article II of the OST is an issue. You want to control your territory. So you lobby to amend that, or come up with an exception for space-based sovereigns, etc. You could reject the OST, say you won't be party, but that makes problem 1 harder.

13) A variety of solutions is imaginable. The simplest is probably int'l agreement that terrestrial sovereigns can't claim territory in space, but space-based governments can, & otherwise keep the OST intact. Or one might negotiate a new regime if we need to change all the rules.

14) So you've worked out a rules-based international system that fits for you. You demonstrate control over territory and governance of your peeps & activities. You've found countries to recognize your independence. You did it! NOW you're a sovereign. Because you didn't rush.

15) So ends my webinar on declaring independence in space. I'll leave with this: like building rockets, countries take time and expertise and experimentation. You can't hand-waive your way there any more than you can wish for a functioning launch vehicle. You have to build it.

PS: The operations side of all of this is huge as well, and I haven't covered it here. Being truly self-sustaining probably isn't necessary (no country is) but as a practical matter you are going to need an independent source of funds, something to trade, etc. as bare minimum.

PPS: Article VI of the OST isn't a problem. That issue resolves itself once you are a recognized sovereign; now YOU, not your terrestrial countries of origin, have obligations to authorize and supervise, register objects, all the other stuff countries are obligated to do.