New @medrxivpreprint (not yet peer-reviewed) with @KevinAnBrown and colleagues examining temporal variations in the intensity of care provided to the 2,000 Ontario #LTC home residents who died of #COVID19 between March 11th and October 28th, 2020: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
1/6
While there was no official policy denying hospitalizations media reports (cbc.ca/news/health/co…) & testimony from Ontario's LTC COVID19 commission (ltccommission-commissionsld.ca/transcripts/pd…) suggest that resident transfers to hospital were strongly discouraged at the onset of the pandemic.
2/6
To investigate this, we measured monthly variations in hospitalizations among community and #LTC-dwelling Ontarians who died of #COVID19 between March-October, 2020.
We found that monthly hospitalization rates were relatively stable among community-dwelling individuals.
3/6
Conversely, hospitalizations among LTC residents who died of COVID19 varied substantially from a low of 15.5% in March-April (peak of wave 1) to a high of 41.2% in June-July (nadir of wave 1).
Additionally, women were less likely than men to be hospitalized prior to death.
4/6
Our findings seem to substantiate reports suggesting that hospitalizations for #LTC residents with COVID19 were low during the peak of the pandemic's first wave in Ontario.
This may have contributed to the very high concentration of COVID19 mortality in Ontario's LTC homes.
5/6
As acute and critical care use continues to increase during the second wave of #COVID19 in Ontario (graph by @jkwan_md), we must ensure that all #LTC residents have access to the medical care they need and want.
6/6
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The #COVIDzero approach recognizes that there is a disjointed approach to #COVID19 in Canada that is causing uncertainty, unnecessary suffering, economic hardship, and preventable deaths.
#COVIDzero is based on a goal of 0 cases with 0 tolerance for community transmission.
2/8
The "moderate" or "balanced" camp scoffs at this aspirational strategy, minimizing it to "hashtags and platitudes...on social media", highlighting its impossibility, and contends that we need to focus on "improving our ability to live with #COVID19": nationalpost.com/opinion/opinio…
3/8
Yesterday, despite rising #COVID19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in LTC, Ontario released a framework to "keep the province safe and open": news.ontario.ca/en/release/590…
This is nothing more than an ageist, ableist & unethical "shielding" or "focused protection" strategy.
1/12
A "shielding" or "focused protection" strategy (the latter was popularized by the Great Barrington Declaration: gbdeclaration.org) segments the oldest and most vulnerable to #COVID19, while allowing everyone else to resume life as normal with simple hygiene measures.
2/12
As many have already highlighted, the #Ontario framework establishes a very high threshold for closures and lockdowns: cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
Specifically, the 10% test positivity and incidence rate ≥100/100,000 thresholds for return to a modified stage 2 are very high.
Let's review the escalating #COVID19 catastrophe in the province's care homes.
There are 14 active #LTC home outbreaks and 38 cumulative resident deaths. Today the @redcrosscanada was called into Parkview Place and Maples, the two hardest hit homes: cbc.ca/news/canada/ma…
2/9
Earlier this year, @LTCcovid published international examples of measures to prevent and manage #COVID19 outbreaks in residential care and nursing home settings: ltccovid.org/wp-content/upl…
#Manitoba is failing miserably on almost every key measure.
There remain 22 active Ontario #LTC home outbreaks (see figure).
@ASPphysician has challenged me to say what must be done to get this under control.
Here it is (a thread).
1/8
We need swift action to control community transmission of #COVID19 which is getting out of control.
In our @CMAJ study, the prevalence of #COVID19 in the community surrounding a home was strongly associated with the odds of an outbreak (aOR = 1.91): cmaj.ca/content/192/33…
2/8
Controlling community transmission is imperative, as staff neighborhood characteristics are also significant predictors of outbreaks: medrxiv.org/content/medrxi…