New @medrxivpreprint (not yet peer-reviewed) with @KevinAnBrown and colleagues examining temporal variations in the intensity of care provided to the 2,000 Ontario #LTC home residents who died of #COVID19 between March 11th and October 28th, 2020: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

1/6
While there was no official policy denying hospitalizations media reports (cbc.ca/news/health/co…) & testimony from Ontario's LTC COVID19 commission (ltccommission-commissionsld.ca/transcripts/pd…) suggest that resident transfers to hospital were strongly discouraged at the onset of the pandemic.

2/6
To investigate this, we measured monthly variations in hospitalizations among community and #LTC-dwelling Ontarians who died of #COVID19 between March-October, 2020.

We found that monthly hospitalization rates were relatively stable among community-dwelling individuals.

3/6
Conversely, hospitalizations among LTC residents who died of COVID19 varied substantially from a low of 15.5% in March-April (peak of wave 1) to a high of 41.2% in June-July (nadir of wave 1).

Additionally, women were less likely than men to be hospitalized prior to death.

4/6
Our findings seem to substantiate reports suggesting that hospitalizations for #LTC residents with COVID19 were low during the peak of the pandemic's first wave in Ontario.

This may have contributed to the very high concentration of COVID19 mortality in Ontario's LTC homes.

5/6
As acute and critical care use continues to increase during the second wave of #COVID19 in Ontario (graph by @jkwan_md), we must ensure that all #LTC residents have access to the medical care they need and want.

6/6

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More from @NathanStall

18 Nov
In the last few days and following the emergence of #COVIDzero, I've noticed an unsettling fissuring within the academic community.

As @IrfanDhalla says, people on both sides likely agree more than they disagree, but the divisiveness is unproductive: thestar.com/life/health_we…

1/8 Image
The #COVIDzero approach recognizes that there is a disjointed approach to #COVID19 in Canada that is causing uncertainty, unnecessary suffering, economic hardship, and preventable deaths.

#COVIDzero is based on a goal of 0 cases with 0 tolerance for community transmission.

2/8 Image
The "moderate" or "balanced" camp scoffs at this aspirational strategy, minimizing it to "hashtags and platitudes...on social media", highlighting its impossibility, and contends that we need to focus on "improving our ability to live with #COVID19": nationalpost.com/opinion/opinio…

3/8
Read 8 tweets
15 Nov
.@EdTubb, @KenyonWallace & @MarcoOved updated their analysis on the impact of for-profit status on #LTC home #COVID19 outcomes to include data on the second wave: thestar.com/news/gta/2020/…

@SherOnHealth falsely accuses them of "click bait, politics and resistance to science"

1/13
Similar to their wave 1 analysis (thestar.com/business/2020/…), @EdTubb & colleagues find that for-profit status does not impact the risk of a #COVID19 #LTC home outbreak.

But when the virus does enter the home, for-profit homes have experienced larger and deadlier outbreaks.

2/13
Over the summer, @AaronJonesStats, @KevinAnBrown, @Andrew_P_Costa, @RochonPaula and I published a study in @CMAJ further examining this issue using data from wave 1 (March 29-May 20): cmaj.ca/content/192/33…

We reached similar conclusions to the @TorontoStar analysis.

3/13
Read 14 tweets
9 Nov
Our study led by @KevinAnBrown associating crowding in #Ontario nursing homes (defined as the mean number of residents per bedroom and bathroom) with #COVID19 infection and mortality has now been published in @JAMAInternalMed: jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…

1/9
We analyzed #COVID19 incidence and mortality data for residents of nearly all of Ontario's 623 nursing homes from March 29-May 20, 2020.

As of March 29th there were 78,607 residents in these homes, with 36.9%, 37.3%, and 25.8% in single, double, and quadruple-bedded rooms.

2/9
As of May 20th, 5218 (6.6%) residents developed #COVID19 infection, and 1452 (1.8%) died of #COVID19 (case fatality rate = 27.8%).

#COVID19 infection was distributed unequally across Ontario's nursing homes, with 4496 infections (86%) occurring in just 63 homes (10%).

3/9
Read 9 tweets
4 Nov
Yesterday, despite rising #COVID19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in LTC, Ontario released a framework to "keep the province safe and open": news.ontario.ca/en/release/590…

This is nothing more than an ageist, ableist & unethical "shielding" or "focused protection" strategy.

1/12
A "shielding" or "focused protection" strategy (the latter was popularized by the Great Barrington Declaration: gbdeclaration.org) segments the oldest and most vulnerable to #COVID19, while allowing everyone else to resume life as normal with simple hygiene measures.

2/12
As many have already highlighted, the #Ontario framework establishes a very high threshold for closures and lockdowns: cbc.ca/news/canada/to…

Specifically, the 10% test positivity and incidence rate ≥100/100,000 thresholds for return to a modified stage 2 are very high.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
4 Nov
Manitoba's Health Minister called out the "motivation" of >200 doctors who wrote an open letter calling for stronger action: cbc.ca/news/canada/ma…

Remember @CameronFriesen called care home deaths "unavoidable"—let me explain how when it comes to #LTC he hasn't "got this".

1/9
Let's review the escalating #COVID19 catastrophe in the province's care homes.

There are 14 active #LTC home outbreaks and 38 cumulative resident deaths. Today the @redcrosscanada was called into Parkview Place and Maples, the two hardest hit homes: cbc.ca/news/canada/ma…

2/9
Earlier this year, @LTCcovid published international examples of measures to prevent and manage #COVID19 outbreaks in residential care and nursing home settings: ltccovid.org/wp-content/upl…

#Manitoba is failing miserably on almost every key measure.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
18 Sep
In the last 24 hours, two more Ontario #LTC residents died of #COVID19: ottawacitizen.com/news/local-new…

There remain 22 active Ontario #LTC home outbreaks (see figure).

@ASPphysician has challenged me to say what must be done to get this under control.

Here it is (a thread).

1/8
We need swift action to control community transmission of #COVID19 which is getting out of control.

In our @CMAJ study, the prevalence of #COVID19 in the community surrounding a home was strongly associated with the odds of an outbreak (aOR = 1.91): cmaj.ca/content/192/33…

2/8
Controlling community transmission is imperative, as staff neighborhood characteristics are also significant predictors of outbreaks: medrxiv.org/content/medrxi…

As @DFisman showed, lagged staff infections were associated with death among #LTC residents: jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

3/8
Read 8 tweets

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