Thread by @Milhouse_Van_Ho

November 20 – Ontario weekly update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Toronto #COVID19Ottawa

Ontario - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)

However, Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.

Ontario - The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 69.3% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 52.2% of all deaths (all causes) in 2018.

Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 3,443 (234 deaths per every million people in ON or 0.02%)

38.8% of Canadian population but 30.6% of Canada deaths by/with covid-19

Deaths in Ontario, 2015 - July 2020.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2017-19 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Ontario deaths 2017-July 2020. Recent 2020 data may be subject to revision.

Covid-19 has been a crisis in Ontario's long-term care (LTC) system vs. among the general public.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is the number of deaths by/with covid-19 per million people, among both:

1. the general public, outside the long-term care (LTC) system
2. long-term care (LTC) residents

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy.

Ontario now reports:

- 146 in ICU (4.2% of max system capacity)

- 88 in ICU on a ventilator (3.1% of max system capacity)

The number of hospitalizations linked to covid-19 in Ontario has generally not approached levels commonly observed for influenza and pneumonia, with even the April peak being comparable only to the summer lull.

Ontario now reports:

- 526 in hospital

- 146 in ICU

- 88 in ICU on a ventilator

As data on daily new hospitalizations is not publicly available, this is the average daily net change in hospitalizations (ICU and non-ICU).

A note on hospitalization data: This may include those who have had a positive test result after being hospitalized for a different reason.

Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line).

Ontario Fall/Winter season: May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero

Greater Toronto and Ottawa account for 50.3% of Ontario’s population but 78.5% of Ontario deaths by/with covid-19.

Greater Toronto (population: 6,417,516 or 43.5% of Ontario):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 2,340 (365 deaths per every million people in the region or 0.02%)

68.0% of Ontario deaths by/with covid-19

City of Toronto (population: 2,731,571 or 18.5% of Ontario):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 1,509 (552 deaths per every million people in Toronto or 0.05%)

43.8% of Ontario deaths by/with covid-19

Halton Region:

Peel Region:

York Region:

Durham Region:

City of Ottawa (population: 1,006,210 or 6.8% of Ontario):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 363 (361 deaths per every million people in Ottawa or 0.04%)

10.5% of Ontario deaths by/with covid-19