November 20 novembre

Weekly update for / Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Ontario/Quebec/Canada

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited. / Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Canada #covid19qc #covid19toronto
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
However, Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.
Canada - The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.0% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 51.2% of all deaths (all causes) in 2018.
Canada - Bear in mind that the risk of death will sadly always rise in line with one's advancing age.

In 2018, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort passed away.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
If you are under 70, your risk of dying after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 is lower than your annual risk of death.

If you are over 70, your risk of dying after being infected is only slightly higher than your annual risk of death.
All-cause death rates in Canada, 2016 to 2020:

- Death rates in Aug 2019-July 2020 generally comparable to earlier periods

- Significantly more variation between regions than year-to-year within same region
Overall deaths in Canada, 2016 to 2020:

- Ageing and growth of population may be biggest factors in modest year-over-year growth
November 20 – Ontario weekly update available here:

Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Québec disponible ici:

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

20 Nov
20 novembre – Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Québec

Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #covid19qc
Québec (population: 8,552,362):

Nombre total de décès liés à Covid-19: 6 744 (789 décès pour chaque million de personnes au Québec ou 0,08%).

22,5% de la population canadienne, mais 59,9% des décès liés à la covid-19 au Canada.
Les deux paramètres les plus importants à surveiller: les décès et hospitalisations aux soins intensifs.

101 hospitalisations aux soins intensifs en cours au Québec.
Read 8 tweets
20 Nov
November 20 – Ontario weekly update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Toronto #COVID19Ottawa
Ontario - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
However, Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.
Read 25 tweets
14 Nov
November 14 novembre

Weekly update for / Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Ontario/Quebec/Canada

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited. / Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Canada #covid19qc #covid19toronto
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
However, Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death.
Read 37 tweets
12 Nov
"Environ le tiers des Québécois à qui on a attribué la cause du décès à la COVID-19 lors de la première vague seraient très probablement morts d’autres causes dans les semaines suivantes"

(Key points in English below.)

lapresse.ca/covid-19/2020-…
About a third of Quebeckers for whom their cause of death was attributed to covid-19 in the first wave would most likely have died from other causes in the following weeks, suggests a newly published demographic study by two HEC Montreal researchers.
Quebec has seen excess mortality between March and June: about 4,300 more deaths than usual for that period.

Shameless plug - see my thread here:

Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
Here's the seasonal pattern of influenza and pneumonia in Ontario.

Look familiar?
Hospitalizations for influenza and pneumonia peak at 27/100,000 in January and hit trough at 11/100,000.

Multiplying by 147 to adjust for Ontario's population, that would be a range of 1,617 in August to 3,969 in January.
Could covid simply be displaying its seasonality? If that's the case, this isn't a second wave; it's autumn.

Look at the trend of covid-linked hospitalizations below - keeping in mind that we didn't have mass PCR testing for covid last winter, but ramped it up in the spring.
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
So why did Peel Region, including @BonnieCrombie, @patrickbrownont, and Peel's MOH Lawrence Loh, cancel Christmas?

What gives them the right to do this?

Is it because hospitals are full?

No.

Is it because the bodies are piling up?

No.

(thread...)

#COVID19Ontario
This is the situation in Peel Region.

330 deaths by or with covid-19 from a population of 1,381,739.

So clearly, a lot of "cases" (positive test results) but very few deaths relative to the size of this urban area.
What about hospitals?

Trillium Health Partners, which operates two hospitals in Mississauga and one close by in Toronto, reports a staggering... 33 patients confirmed positive with covid-19.

And only 8 of those 33 are in ICU.
Read 8 tweets

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