The latest @ICNARC intensive care weekly report has been published. A short thread to summarise, including a link to the full report.
The report covers critical care admissions to 20 November and compares the second wave (1 Sep onwards) to the first. 1/9
The report now covers 4,869 patients from 1 September. Critical care outcomes are reported for 3,293 of these patients.
Most second wave admissions in the North of England and the Midlands. Interesting to compare and contrast locations with first wave. 2/9
Figure 13 compare all pneumonia admissions in recent years to 2020 (with this years admissions split between COVID and other). It’s clear that relevant admissions this year (orange plus blue lines) are many times higher than normal in both the first and second waves. 3/9
Table 1 and the subsequent charts allow us to examine demographic characteristics compared to what might be expected based on the local population.
Overrepresented groups include males (7 out of 10 ICU admissions), those of Asian ethnicity and the obese (BMI>30). 4/9
Whilst the geographical distribution of ICU admissions is very different in the second wave compared to the first, the same patterns persist. Deprived groups and those living in large cities are much more likely to require critical care. 5/9
Looking at medical history, nine out of ten needed no assistance with daily activities. A similar number were free of severe comorbidities.
Compared to the first wave, patients are much less likely to be mechanically ventilated within the first 24hrs (23% vs 54%). 6/9
Outcomes are still better than the first wave, but the gap has narrowed considerably since I last analysed this report.
Of those no longer in critical care, around one third died in ICU and two thirds were discharged from ICU. 7/9
That worsening mortality picture must largely reflect case mix (for example, second wave patients are a bit older on average) as 28-day mortality is improved within each demographic group (though not all of the improvements are statistically significant). 8/9
Here is a link to full report which contains lots of extra information as well as the items I’ve highlighted. In particular more medical breakdowns (I focus more on demographics).
Stay safe! The best way we can help ICU staff is by not catching and spreading this virus. 9/9
The latest @ICNARC intensive care weekly report has been published. A short thread to summarise, including a link to the full report. The report covers critical care admissions to 15 October and compares the second wave (1 Sep onwards) to the first. 1/10
The report now covers 1,233 patients from 1 September. Of these, 643 have outcomes reported and 590 are still receiving critical care.
Most admissions in the North of England and the Midlands. However, allowing for size of local population N. Ireland and London look bad. 2/10
Table 1 summarises patient characteristics, showing how these compare with the first wave.
As before, seven out of ten ICU admissions are males, with most aged 50-80. 3/10
They’re back! The intensive care national audit & research centre (@ICNARC to its friends) has resumed weekly reporting in response to rapidly rising ICU admissions.
A short thread follows in which I’ll draw out key content and add some comments. 1/n
Déjà vu? Newer followers might be unaware that I used this data six months ago to challenge the myth that COVID-19 is only a risk to those who were already “at death’s door”. That thread went a bit viral, with all manner of interesting consequences! 2/n
One positive outcome was an improved relationship between actuaries and the intensive care community. A tangible example is the commitment to @ICS_updates from @COVID19actuary that we would continue to highlight the impact the COVID-19 on intensive care units. 3/14
Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.
Daily admissions rose rapidly this week, exceeding 300 on Wednesday for the first time since mid-June.
The increase in the moving average implies doubling time of 10-11 days. (1/4)
Based on recent hospital admissions data it looks like the R number was around 1.4 at the end of the first week in September. Over the next week or two we’ll see the impact of schools reopening, but also local lockdowns and other restrictions. (2/4)
Average daily COVID-19 hospital deaths in England has increased from under five on 31 Aug to over 25 in recent days.
For more discussion see my recent @COVID19actuary bulletin which explains how we allow for reporting delays.
I suspected that today’s ONS life expectancy release would not be met with the usual fanfare, but I guess I hadn’t anticipated complete media radio silence.
Still, it’s not the most “pandemic appropriate” news. UK life expectancy is at a new high!
What’s the story? 1/7
UK life expectancy at birth is up by six weeks for males and seven weeks for females. Here’s the numbers direct from Ed at the ONS 👇
Crucially though, this is just updating National Life Tables to include 2019, which had record low death rates. 2/7
Latest ONS deaths data (to week ending 11 September) has been released.
505 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 5-year average.
Year to date there have been 14% more deaths than the 5-year average (2015-19).
There are 99 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate this week, but there were also more deaths from other causes compared to the 5-year average.
Numbers are for England and Wales only and are 11-17 days old.
Non-COVID deaths were 4% above the 5-year average.
Some of the additional deaths recorded will certainly have been catchup from last week, when we saw significantly less deaths recorded than normal as a result of Bank Holiday registry office closures.